Cobra's Market View

closed at SE
sim
NTA

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:Last chart, bye guys

239.png

Chance of "Gap down > 0.75%" tomorrow per New M05 setup is only 15% (an observation not a firm conclusion due to low n)

You mean 0.75%, not 75%, right?

Yes, means tomorrow SPY opens lower by 0.75% relative to today's close.
Here is the data
since March 2012
GAP by 0.75%
Gap Up/Gap Dn/T-Status
8/ 2/ T-Buy
1/ 11/ T-Sell
89%/ 15%/ % Gap up/dn
Current Status: T-Buy

You're giving a 99.25% chance of a gap up tomorrow. That's confidence.

daytradingES wrote:closed at SE
sim
NTA

Great trade daytradingES! Nice

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:Last chart, bye guys

239.png

Chance of "Gap down > 0.75%" tomorrow per New M05 setup is only 15% (an observation not a firm conclusion due to low n)

so in other words 85% chance of no gap down tomorrow, correct?

Al_Dente wrote:

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:

Harapa wrote:

uempel wrote:Last chart, bye guys

239.png

Chance of "Gap down > 0.75%" tomorrow per New M05 setup is only 15% (an observation not a firm conclusion due to low n)

so in other words 85% chance of no gap down tomorrow, correct?

Let me repharase the statement, which appears to be confusing most folks here.
There is only 15% chance that tomorrow SPY will open lower by 0.75%.

ClarkW wrote:

daytradingES wrote:closed at SE
sim
NTA

Great trade daytradingES! Nice

Thanks Clark!

Gosh I'm glad someone noticed!
I was pleased because all the signals were correct.
The close at the SE was while I was sleeping (the lower end of the HZ).

Of course, live trades would have been -$612.50 not +$612.50 -

snaps of FE and SE

L_T wrote:Interesting thing I found at finviz.com. You can create custom chart screenings and use the URL to show others all of them on one page. For example, here are a few whose charts are uber-bullish/up-trending (Cobra gets credit for EXPE being on the list):

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t ... S,DFS,EXPE

Thanks for this link LT
Interesting.

High ROE has Visa V on its list
(I tried going into the filters and doing a industry -that didn't work.)

It´s coming folks! boom or bust?


will euro break this long lasting channel on Greek news? or sell the news event?

test

daytradingES wrote:snaps of FE and SE

congratulations DT, right on the money

Royal Flush wrote:

daytradingES wrote:snaps of FE and SE

congratulations DT, right on the money

Thanks RF!

daytradingES wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

daytradingES wrote:snaps of FE and SE

congratulations DT, right on the money

Thanks RF!

Thanks for posting you spreadsheet results. I presume your "Best Guess" is just that and applies to the Globex session?

Royal Flush wrote:

daytradingES wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

daytradingES wrote:snaps of FE and SE

congratulations DT, right on the money

Thanks RF!

Thanks for posting you spreadsheet results. I presume your "Best Guess" is just that and applies to the Globex session?

Not really and no.

== nothing posted below is trading advice - Educational only ====

The PM estimates are for tomorrow's RTH session (but I don't use these estimates as is). The PM estimates posted are a selection of those the many estimates made by the spreadsheet. What I have labeled Best Guess is just one of them which is often pretty good. (and which is called R,L & P in the spreadsheet). The one labelled Visual is simply my eye-balling the chart. I haven't tested which is the most reliable, so I post the entire selection.

Also I make a separate estimate of the o/n session (meaning 15:30 to 7:30 CT), which wasn't shown - but I could add it if you like. (The missing time slice of 7:30 to 8:30 is a separate time window for me which I call the Pre-open).

For example, last night the o/n estimate was 1406.25 to 1394.25. (not posted) The actual was 1407.75 (18:41) to 1401 (5:12). If I was trading the o/n then the first number 1407.75 being close to 1406.25 would be an estimated entry price and when it got close 1406.25 and failed I would enter (ie short in this case as the o/n high was first).

I make new estimates in the morning including the new information from the o/n session - but as I am so rushed in the morning I can't post the Am estimates before opening.

========================================================

A person could take the evening estimates and use them as is for the RTH.
OR
take the evening estimates and adjust them by the difference between the close and the open (the gap).

(I haven't tested which is best. I would guess that if the gap is greater than 4 pts then adjust them.)

========================================================

I don't know which of the PM estimates is more accurate. My guess would be that if there is a steady trend and consistent range then Estimated Mid Est Rng would be best? If it's fluctuating then the Sheet estimate? If you don't know then Best Guess or Aver All?

Perhaps the best way to use them, is to make a guess one's self and then pick the estimate which most closely matches ones' own estimate?


I hope that helps.
NTA
GLTA