01/28/2015 Live Update

[merryme]

Marty Chenard said:

"....we desperately needed to close higher on Tuesday or Wednesday (today) and ... A huge challenge could occur between now and the close on Monday." Yesterday was probably not the end of the challenge. Regardless of what happens today, Thursday could be a day with a big challenge for the markets."

Can anyone enlighten me as to why Thursday is the big challenge? Thanks.

[Junior Buffett]

Our bank.

Capture.PNG

Hint hint.

Hi Gappy, I am not smart enough can you please explain your hint!

[fehro]

don't know if FB can save itself..Daily + 60m.. w/AH movement…

[Trades with cats]

Thursday is jobless claims. They have not been good. Friday is GDP, I havn't looked to see the estimates. Maybe it is something in Europe ?

[Junior Buffett]

FB post strong results

[gappy]

Our bank.

Capture.PNG

Hint hint.

Hi Gappy, I am not smart enough can you please explain your hint!

Howdy JB. It's just a candidate to short, if you don't mind that sort of gamble. I'll be watching it into earnings which is too soon to show a loss on it's oil loan portfolio. But a weakness soon to come, that's all. glty

[MrMiyagi]

jy

[DellGriffith]

theres a lot of problems with beibg short here as well.

1. we'd basically have to crash thru the lower bb if you are shorting here. thats very very rare. and to do it AFTER the bearishness of the past 2 months without a strong relief rally first i dont think ive ever seen.

2. if you were to get short, youd have done it at much higher levels.

3. going long around the lower bb has a very high liklihood of being profitable.

4. how long do you really think it will be before spy hits the upper bb again? its taken a ton of bearishness to keep it away from the upper bb for this long. where do these fresh bears come from?

[DellGriffith]

for comparison, consider the drop in early 2008. the yield curve had inverted. goldman sachs had come out in early january and openly called for a recession later that year, and if we break down hard in the coming days, SPY will look worse now than it did then.

i just dont see it.

[DellGriffith]

Maybe I'm the only one here. But more thoughts.

There is a thread on another stock forum started TODAY. The title is "shorts beginning to act right". Beginning. Beginning? The market has been bearish since December 8th.

See, that is exactly the threads you see at the bottom. You see people STARTING to get bearish.

That makes me bullish.

[DellGriffith]

[fehro]

for comparison, consider the drop in early 2008. the yield curve had inverted. goldman sachs had come out in early january and openly called for a recession later that year, and if we break down hard in the coming days, SPY will look worse now than it did then.

i just dont see it.

topping… if it is a top… is always a process… even in 2008… 6 months later… and the dynamic yields.. could it be different this time?.. they are moving rapidly over the last 6 months.. play with the chart.. it's free!… with animations!.. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

[DellGriffith]

topping… if it is a top… is always a process… even in 2008… 6 months later… and the dynamic yields.. could it be different this time?.. they are moving rapidly over the last 6 months.. play with the chart.. it's free!… with animations!.. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

Thanks. I've used that dynamic yield chart for probably ten years at least! Not sure when it got installed but it feels like its been there for ages.

[DellGriffith]

SPY shares outstanding is down by the lower bb, which is not where large declines begin.



A snippet of the mcclellan article on using shares outstanding



full article:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... indicator/

[DellGriffith]

SPY share redemption at large levels like we have seen over recent weeks points to a very large rally in the near future. There are just too many bears.