Cobra's Market View

Mr. T wrote:

PRI wrote:

uempel wrote:Update:

SPX25.png

Bearish (flag) and bullish? Could you elaborate please? Thank you!

2nd that request

co ask~~ :cry:

Cobra wrote:well, I'd agree all the bearish calls here, but purely from chart pattern, it's very rare for a car running on 200 mile per hour reverses all of sudden. From my understanding of TA is we should trade on high odds and this basically says that we'd try our best no to think that this time is different. So, maybe the market is about to crash, but until proven wrong, I cannot bet this 200 mile per hour car simply has reversed on just one day sharp pullback.

Sure the market ain't going to crash, but if the rebounds are weak there is no point in holding long positions...

Agree Cobra - but we have seen it before , most people right now very bullish just in 8 trading days.....more bulls than bears right now. Markets does the unexpected always - and price action intraday seems /bearish to me - seems like we need a bid there like we have seen before. I have a fib target date for a bottom on Friday next week - so a possible move down into Friday or so next week would be good. I dont know how low we go - but USD looks strong and about to go up in a big way looks like. So I would think markets could go down hard with a break of 1 year downtrend USD

PRI and Mr. T: Sorry, I was being sarcastic. When price creeps up a slanting trendline it nearly always falls through at some point - so it's a bearish pattern. If price bounces on a trendline it's more bullish. The chart I showed with the creepy action and the bearish flag is very bearish (short term).

uempel wrote:

Cobra wrote:well, I'd agree all the bearish calls here, but purely from chart pattern, it's very rare for a car running on 200 mile per hour reverses all of sudden. From my understanding of TA is we should trade on high odds and this basically says that we'd try our best no to think that this time is different. So, maybe the market is about to crash, but until proven wrong, I cannot bet this 200 mile per hour car simply has reversed on just one day sharp pullback.

Sure the market ain't going to crash, but if the rebounds are weak there is no point in holding long positions...

yeah, but the market has to show me the evidence first. We snake simply follow, market is the master...

uempel wrote:PRI and Mr. T: Sorry, I was being sarcastic. When price creeps up a slanting trendline it nearly always falls through at some point - that's really bearish. If price bounces on a trendline it's more bullish. The chart I showed with the creepy action and the bearish flag is very bearish (short term).

Ah, I was wondering where you were going with that... I love your charts. Thanks for the reply.

IMHO...Everyone including CNBC is building up for next week for big moves up and up and up etc.Take a contrarian view this may not happen. Also S&P mid caps cannot get pass 1000 for the the last 4-5 tries.We will just have to wait and see.

Cobra wrote:well, I'd agree all the bearish calls here, but purely from chart pattern, it's very rare for a car running on 200 mile per hour reverses all of sudden. From my understanding of TA is we should trade on high odds and this basically says that we'd try our best no to think that this time is different. So, maybe the market is about to crash, but until proven wrong, I cannot bet this 200 mile per hour car simply has reversed on just one day sharp pullback.

Aside from the wonderful analogy, your respect of TA/charts is something to admire and learn, at least for someone like me who has often wrecked own train on the tracks of "self-convictions" and FA and a messed-up operation time table

uempel

Agree with you - next week bank stress test - no long term plan for Greece + debt ceiling + Italy problems..

But well we are technicans... also possible HS topping pattern on 5 min chart last days ? The thing is... do we go down hard now below 1250 and MA(200) this time ? Or do we pullback before making a possible new high ? Hard to say....

Call me a conspiracy theorist, I don't care, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop up into the close, just so the weekly candle on the SPX just doesn't look like a bearish red doji. Close above 1340 anyone? Low volume today may favor the bulls.

I believe I made the 3rd call right, now the 4th call. as long as bulls cannot pass the current tinted area, the next pullback should be larger than another tinted area.

Cobra: Do you think we should close the longs due to rebound weak?

rhight wrote:Call me a conspiracy theorist, I don't care, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop up into the close, just so the weekly candle on the SPX just doesn't look like a bearish red doji. Close above 1340 anyone? Low volume today may favor the bulls.

We are on a slow creep up so far..I think and agree with you the close will be 1340+

Cobra wrote:I believe I made the 3rd call right, now the 4th call. as long as bulls cannot pass the current tinted area, the next pullback should be larger than another tinted area.

What is that 134.1 ish?

PRI wrote:

uempel wrote:PRI and Mr. T: Sorry, I was being sarcastic. When price creeps up a slanting trendline it nearly always falls through at some point - that's really bearish. If price bounces on a trendline it's more bullish. The chart I showed with the creepy action and the bearish flag is very bearish (short term).

Ah, I was wondering where you were going with that... I love your charts. Thanks for the reply.

Thanks, here an illustration:

Sqwii wrote:Agree Cobra - but we have seen it before , most people right now very bullish just in 8 trading days.....more bulls than bears right now. Markets does the unexpected always - and price action intraday seems /bearish to me - seems like we need a bid there like we have seen before. I have a fib target date for a bottom on Friday next week - so a possible move down into Friday or so next week would be good. I dont know how low we go - but USD looks strong and about to go up in a big way looks like. So I would think markets could go down hard with a break of 1 year downtrend USD

" So I would think markets could go down hard with a break of 1 year downtrend USD[/quote] "

The Euro proved this analysis as wrong analysis... look how Euro reactes at any support .. also most traders ignore the signals that the Euro and AUD clearly gives us which is raising raites for the pair make it popular in credite market.
for example: if a government or big bank gave a full garantee in your deposit and gave you the choice to choose the currency, in these days, which currency you choose to park your monye in and take a garantee with good LABOR and intrest?
Also check the chart of those currencies when they fall hard to the level of intrest rate and see how they rebaound strongly.. this is a clear signal that there central banks are making them popular for the banks and a clear signal that they are willing to defend there currency. But look at USA and policy to defend the Dollar ?
I will quote one of the big forex trader said in 2004 " If US don't want there Dollar why on earth I buy it and risk ? "
So, waiting for the Euro to crash and USD to rebound ( I heard this analysis since March) while Euro is moving 150 points in the daily range and I call my self a trader is not correct .. but thats just me

oldpigwang wrote:Cobra: Do you think we should close the longs due to rebound weak?

no idea.

uempel wrote:

PRI wrote:

uempel wrote:PRI and Mr. T: Sorry, I was being sarcastic. When price creeps up a slanting trendline it nearly always falls through at some point - that's really bearish. If price bounces on a trendline it's more bullish. The chart I showed with the creepy action and the bearish flag is very bearish (short term).

Ah, I was wondering where you were going with that... I love your charts. Thanks for the reply.

Thanks, here an illustration:

SPX26.png

wow, thanks for sharing

rhight wrote:Call me a conspiracy theorist, I don't care, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop up into the close, just so the weekly candle on the SPX just doesn't look like a bearish red doji. Close above 1340 anyone? Low volume today may favor the bulls.

Fed could announce some kind of liquidity glut Monday before the opening... Not sure if that's a conspiracy, but it sure would drown the bears.

SPX
1318.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_6127.html

Have a good one.