Cobra's Market View

Cobra wrote:forgot to mention, the target reached. Although got a rough start today but still 75% chances are good enough. I sold most of my day position right at the target. I think there's more on the upside.

How do you calculate your target?

Here we are at 50% retracement, Fibocombo

Anyone know why TLT (20-yr Treasuries) is getting all sorts of love today?

EvilTrader wrote:

Cobra wrote:volume surge and the 3rd push up, let's see the next few bars, pullback may around, I sold all the day positions here right at the high. I'll keep swing position overnight assume we close high of the day. Meanwhile still holding my short positions.

Didn´t your system stop the shorts yet ?

No. I haven't decided about this part yet, right now the design is always fail the last position so as to allow smooth transition from one direction to another because in trend transition period, we might get a few up and down, too early to cut position would get more false entries.

q2model wrote:

Cobra wrote:forgot to mention, the target reached. Although got a rough start today but still 75% chances are good enough. I sold most of my day position right at the target. I think there's more on the upside.

How do you calculate your target?

Watch the chart carefully, then you should know. It's the mini target, usually more.

Another angle, Bulls are not out of the wood just yet.

BullBear52x wrote:Here we are at 50% retracement, Fibocombo

Just got back from lunch meeting and I walk into THIS!?!? More market idiocy. Oh well. More shorting opportunity. Upping short position to 40% at 1327 (SPX).

Oil and silver and gold moving lower, it looks like.

Anaconda wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Here we are at 50% retracement, Fibocombo

Just got back from lunch meeting and I walk into THIS!?!? More market idiocy. Oh well. More shorting opportunity. Upping short position to 40% at 1327 (SPX).

Oil and silver and gold moving lower, it looks like.

My day of counter trending should come to an end. I see what you mean, my fingers are itching but I'll skip today. power off is best for me today. GLTA

Anaconda wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Here we are at 50% retracement, Fibocombo

Just got back from lunch meeting and I walk into THIS!?!? More market idiocy. Oh well. More shorting opportunity. Upping short position to 40% at 1327 (SPX).

Oil and silver and gold moving lower, it looks like.

Watchout, because we may have a massive short-squeeze this week.

silicon_beaver wrote:

silicon_beaver wrote:Does silver hit ceiling? seems it Is still in rectangular. any silver player? what's action?
I watch it a while. EXK, SVM, SLW, AG. they were green yesterday (and almost everyday by yesterday). This morning. they all in red and now they turn in to green again. to strong, and over-bought too much.

svm chart.
it's on its resistance and its rsi is over 70.

svm is pull-back after hit the ceiling. It's down 4% now.

Based on the broadness of the rally turned out this afternoon, I believe the chances are the short term market has turned to the up.

Buying the dips into next week.

1. macro funds are not involved in equities, but you can be sure they are short treasuries and have been getting trashed. How long before they figure out that being long equities becomes a hedge for them?
2. internals look like crap, breadth tells me to sell, industrials unable to outperform, emerging markets look like they are in trouble.
3. finally, the reason why treasuries have been so strong is that people have been afraid and hiding in them
4. what happens when they figure out money is not safe in public securities?

I am not buying this mkt at the close.From what I see we are near a pull back .I will wait until tomorrow to buy in again.Holding a couple of longs.

soku wrote:

soku wrote:market is in clearing trending mode. i think next target could be around 1324.
aapl is moving higher. per my calculation 378 is 100% target. we may wait here for er then shooting up to 420ish.

(disclaimer: i have aapl long)

this is unbelievable. we are at 1323 already? i see buying power

when the moment comes, it comes.
i short at 1324 as planned this morning with tight stop. i just feel i need to put money where my mouth is

the next resistance, with multiple fibs. although I'm now ready to be bull but still the market is lifted by just a few heavy weighted stocks, so I'm cautious here. Never heard SPY leads RSP. Apparently RSP is lagging now.

Cobra wrote:the next resistance, with multiple fibs. although I'm now ready to be bull but still the market is lifted by just a few heavy weighted stocks, so I'm cautious here. Never heard SPY leads RSP. Apparently RSP is lagging now.

What about the last half of 2006?

remember what I said last night? AAPL is now officially 10% above its MA50 now. Gap up huge, especially above 5%+ means sell.

pablorynx wrote:

Cobra wrote:the next resistance, with multiple fibs. although I'm now ready to be bull but still the market is lifted by just a few heavy weighted stocks, so I'm cautious here. Never heard SPY leads RSP. Apparently RSP is lagging now.

What about the last half of 2006?

Don't know about 2006. RSP lagged a lot in year 2007, that's why 2007 was the top.

Cobra wrote:the next resistance, with multiple fibs. although I'm now ready to be bull but still the market is lifted by just a few heavy weighted stocks, so I'm cautious here. Never heard SPY leads RSP. Apparently RSP is lagging now.

Let us be on the side of the bulls till the end of the month.
I wrote over the weekend about going long ( http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/2011/07/big-picture.html ) and I went long yesterday ( http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/2011/07/i-feel-fear.html ).
But I have no faith on this rally and my bias is bearish.

Cobra wrote:remember what I said last night? AAPL is now officially 10% above its MA50 now. Gap up huge, especially above 5%+ means sell.

so if tomorrow gap up, sell, thank you laoda~~ i have a lot of aapl... :? :shock: :o :roll: :|