Cobra's Market View

hho wrote:

Cobra wrote:

hho wrote:hi, cobra and everyone.

first time commenter here. been trying to learn as much as i can from the forum but i have no input because i'm new to trading.

question for you, cobra. you mentioned before that reversals of reversals of reversals are a sign of a trend change. does the spy action from 7/12 to 7/19 qualify?

thanks.

No

would you kindly elaborate pls? thanks.

Cobra wrote:ok, make an exception today.

AK84 wrote:

JackA wrote:

AK84 wrote:Hi Jack. With respect to GOOG, I dont undetstand why your calls are at a loss ? If you held prior to eranings u should have been up. If you bought after earnings, maybe u bought too early and volatility returned to normal.

I hold Aug Goog callz but i trade in an out v v quickly. Example, I close my goog callz yday for a nice profit but I reloaded today at 595ish. GOOG is in a consolidation pattern now and is building a pattern and I expect a retest of 630 v v soon. You could roll into Sep calls to avoid theta damage if ur planning on holding for a long term. USually with front month or couple of months to expiration , I would sell quick if I made some money . Have a target and close wen reached. Dont worry about the rest coz a winning trade is a winning trade and there are ALWAYS opportunities in this market.

I usually post a lot of option trade ideas in this forum and all have worked out v v nicely with over 40% profit (with the exception of SINA but I expect it will take a few days to work oout ).

Look out for my posts. I am v v (insert v v x 100 ) busy today so cant trade much .

Good luck!

PS. Hi Cobrrrraaaaa!!!!

That's exactly what happened I bot them just after the earnings, and with the 50% continuation gap up rule http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/hregaps2.htm ...i was expecting it to move up quickly to 625. I guess with AAPL earning coming today i got too aggressive and bought too many. For now I took the loss and moved half of my calls to DEC'11.

Thanks for responding, I will look out for your calls. Are you playing FFIV or QCOM earnings today?

No problem. Not playting FFIV or QCOM . I feel like the options are too expensive and I usually trade the breakout direction. FFIV is sitting at weekly 50dma at 111. looks like IHS on daily but then again al lthis doesnt matter in light of earnings and how investors react to it .

Case in point ...WYNN from yday . Awesome earnings.....gapped up ...closed in red. down today. double top from 2007 possibly ....everyone who bought options day before earnings probably lost on the vol crush . same with aapl today. Trade the direction I'd say. I bought some AAPL 400 puts today expiring friday and made a cool 1200 in 20 mins. id rather do that and be sure of my trade that guess where its gonna go post earnings unless im fairly certain,....

In my honest opinion FFIV looks like a buy to me if i were playing earnings but dont hold me to it .....

StrikePrice wrote:

Cobra wrote:ok, make an exception today.

Still hoping for higher high to close some Calls. Usually patience pays off....

king1lou wrote:Cobra, I know I've been lurking in the background. Just wanted to let you know, really appreciate you passion for TA and willingness to educate. Thanks!