Cobra's Market View

frankthetank wrote:just bought some spy calls 1190

Bull X ! GLTY!!

for anyone fairly new out there, i'm a good example of what happens when you over-trade your account. held 20 SPY puts into this morning, up 4k to start the day. tried to catch the counter rally, but the bulls were still sleeping. failed and stopped out of the trade at -500. saw what looked like it was going to break below 118, shorted near the bottom at 118.15. stopped out again, -500. then did 3-4 more frivolous trades pretty much in counterpoint to the range formation of around 119.04-118.66.

net net, screwed up my 4k profits, and cut them in half.

lesson...overtrade = overkill.

i have my own system in place for trading, but i benefit A LOT from this board, sometimes helping me confirm, but more often keeping me aware of aspects that i don't always think about. my particular view is to keep your system fairly simple and repeatable. if you can do that, then i think you can move towards the higher level "optimization" process which is where i feel like cobra is. even with that being said, sometimes, like this morning, your system says up, you think up, and the market goes down and vice a versa, over and over again. i've been at this for 8 years, 5 professionally, 3 for myself, and i can tell you that you are still vulnerable to even the basic mantras of profitable trading.

hate myself for pissing away what i generally target as 2 days of profits, but...we learn and learn, and learn again.

i'm short a small position into the weekend.

good luck trading, and thanks for everyone out their's time and efforts in posting up their ideas, thoughts, and most especially charts.

have a great holiday weekend,
john

cougar wrote:So…according to their expert posts, it looks like “AK84” and “waverider” shorted NFLX…
Congratulations to both of them!!!

I have one observation: most intelligent and original technical analysts I know are also very astute speculators of fundamentals and news - real and fabricated. The famous sentence” news don’t matter” is an “ego trip” that they put in the preface of their books, destined to sell a lot. The really good “salesmen” among them accompany this statement with another one: “ It doesn’t matter if you have a 2-digits IQ, and never had any math in your education…just use the tricks I’ll teach you…”
And then comes: ”…500 bucks for the course…por favor”

I guess my statement of "news doesnt matter" sounded stupid. I didnt mean to sound like a Dbag with a huge ego because honestly I dont have one. Actually in my opinion news matters and does drive the charts but with the pattern forming on NFLX on the weekly and many other single stocks , the reason I said news doenst matter is because someone ALREADY knew the news and thats why I feel TA works.....people know things ahead of time that give us TA traders insight on how to position ourselves. WIthout news and fundamentals, there would be no TA and no charts. I do follow fundamentals as well obviously but that is more for investors and buy and hold guys.

Look at the GS weekly chart before yday's govt subpoena broke out . You should have already been short GS on a weekly timeframe. Obviously this is because someone already knew this and was positioned ahead. If the SEC were to investigate all these guys, maybe TA wouldnt work so well ?

I just reviewed the 60 min charts for the SPX and COMP. Based on this info the RSI's and STOH's are nearing bottom and could start up.This with the next couple of days of green may not be time to short.We my have another up move first.Take a look and give an opion then lets see.

jarbo456 wrote:for anyone fairly new out there, i'm a good example of what happens when you over-trade your account. held 20 SPY puts into this morning, up 4k to start the day. tried to catch the counter rally, but the bulls were still sleeping. failed and stopped out of the trade at -500. saw what looked like it was going to break below 118, shorted near the bottom at 118.15. stopped out again, -500. then did 3-4 more frivolous trades pretty much in counterpoint to the range formation of around 119.04-118.66.

net net, screwed up my 4k profits, and cut them in half.

lesson...overtrade = overkill.

i have my own system in place for trading, but i benefit A LOT from this board, sometimes helping me confirm, but more often keeping me aware of aspects that i don't always think about. my particular view is to keep your system fairly simple and repeatable. if you can do that, then i think you can move towards the higher level "optimization" process which is where i feel like cobra is. even with that being said, sometimes, like this morning, your system says up, you think up, and the market goes down and vice a versa, over and over again. i've been at this for 8 years, 5 professionally, 3 for myself, and i can tell you that you are still vulnerable to even the basic mantras of profitable trading.

hate myself for pissing away what i generally target as 2 days of profits, but...we learn and learn, and learn again.

i'm short a small position into the weekend.

good luck trading, and thanks for everyone out their's time and efforts in posting up their ideas, thoughts, and most especially charts.

have a great holiday weekend,
john

Thanks for sharing John from someone fairly new to trading. Living is learning. And failure is part of the game. And one can't go chasing perfect trades all the time. But the suffering is optional. (no pun intended)

Volume on the SPY has completely dried up. Usually heavy vol has accompanied sell offs, I can only surmise it is because it's ahead of a 3 day weekend, and a slow last summer week.
But it's keeping me from adding to my shorts!:)

I looked hard for a bounce in the last few hours. Just could not find it.

Technology $XLK closed its gap up at $23.87 and is trading below it. btdstocktrader.webs.com

ultramarine wrote:Cobra -- do you think a break below the morning low necessarily means a quick trip to 115-116 of could it simply back test the triangle resistance line a little further over? This would produce a lower low on the day but it may not be by very much.

115-116, that's a huge drop for today, I don't know.

WOOHOO my TMF that I held is paying off pretty nice =]
As I suspected the dollar is making a move....so I dont know too much about the rally in gold and silver

last message for the day...

i'm stuck in BAC puts, which were awesomely profitably, and now awesomely painful. got a good bounce today.

anyone else in my position and or have good opinions or information as to whether i should hold onto the puts or sell them today, and thank the markets for throwing me a bone...albeit a small one.

AK84 wrote:

cougar wrote:So…according to their expert posts, it looks like “AK84” and “waverider” shorted NFLX…
Congratulations to both of them!!!

I have one observation: most intelligent and original technical analysts I know are also very astute speculators of fundamentals and news - real and fabricated. The famous sentence” news don’t matter” is an “ego trip” that they put in the preface of their books, destined to sell a lot. The really good “salesmen” among them accompany this statement with another one: “ It doesn’t matter if you have a 2-digits IQ, and never had any math in your education…just use the tricks I’ll teach you…”
And then comes: ”…500 bucks for the course…por favor”

I guess my statement of "news doesnt matter" sounded stupid. I didnt mean to sound like a Dbag with a huge ego because honestly I dont have one. Actually in my opinion news matters and does drive the charts but with the pattern forming on NFLX on the weekly and many other single stocks , the reason I said news doenst matter is because someone ALREADY knew the news and thats why I feel TA works.....people know things ahead of time that give us TA traders insight on how to position ourselves. WIthout news and fundamentals, there would be no TA and no charts. I do follow fundamentals as well obviously but that is more for investors and buy and hold guys.

Look at the GS weekly chart before yday's govt subpoena broke out . You should have already been short GS on a weekly timeframe. Obviously this is because someone already knew this and was positioned ahead. If the SEC were to investigate all these guys, maybe TA wouldnt work so well ?

AK 84: YOU LOOK at my 3 LB chart of GS (previously posted) which indicates what i did to them (i.e. GS) for a long time now...I appreciate that you are willing tot teach me something and criticize my trades. I am very grateful and always willing to learn. But ...are you sure, if you happen to read my posts, that I have the tendency to ignore TA in general? I am sorry if I gave you that impression.
NOW, during the last 3 days: : Did you short GS? Did you short NFLX?
I shorted GS, which I posted yesterday, well before the big drop. I did not short NFLX...There is also a next time...

AK84 wrote:

cougar wrote:So…according to their expert posts, it looks like “AK84” and “waverider” shorted NFLX…
Congratulations to both of them!!!

I have one observation: most intelligent and original technical analysts I know are also very astute speculators of fundamentals and news - real and fabricated. The famous sentence” news don’t matter” is an “ego trip” that they put in the preface of their books, destined to sell a lot. The really good “salesmen” among them accompany this statement with another one: “ It doesn’t matter if you have a 2-digits IQ, and never had any math in your education…just use the tricks I’ll teach you…”
And then comes: ”…500 bucks for the course…por favor”

I guess my statement of "news doesnt matter" sounded stupid. I didnt mean to sound like a Dbag with a huge ego because honestly I dont have one. Actually in my opinion news matters and does drive the charts but with the pattern forming on NFLX on the weekly and many other single stocks , the reason I said news doenst matter is because someone ALREADY knew the news and thats why I feel TA works.....people know things ahead of time that give us TA traders insight on how to position ourselves. WIthout news and fundamentals, there would be no TA and no charts. I do follow fundamentals as well obviously but that is more for investors and buy and hold guys.

Look at the GS weekly chart before yday's govt subpoena broke out . You should have already been short GS on a weekly timeframe. Obviously this is because someone already knew this and was positioned ahead. If the SEC were to investigate all these guys, maybe TA wouldnt work so well ?

I agree with Cougar. Having experience with TA definitely helps, but only to a certain extent in these controlled manipulated markets (there is no TA for that). I am a very passive investor and everyday I learn something new. My biggest challenge is finding the right balance between the big picture and the concentrated daily, hourly and weekly charts. I don’t have the liberty to trade heavily during my day job and neither do I have a large risk appetite, I try to maintain a swing strategy but I find it difficult to implement successfully as I feel my attitude based on my risk tolerance is more of an investor than a day trader. Luck does play an important factor as well, and if we all knew what was going to happen to nflx yesterday or a few days ago, all of us would be in our dream destinations living life. This forum is great and teaches me new things everyday. Attitude never helps. Have a good long weekend everyone.

well, indeed, the 3rd time doesn't hold, now it's Rectangle breakdown serving as continuation pattern. no good.

jarbo456 wrote:for anyone fairly new out there, i'm a good example of what happens when you over-trade your account. held 20 SPY puts into this morning, up 4k to start the day. tried to catch the counter rally, but the bulls were still sleeping. failed and stopped out of the trade at -500. saw what looked like it was going to break below 118, shorted near the bottom at 118.15. stopped out again, -500. then did 3-4 more frivolous trades pretty much in counterpoint to the range formation of around 119.04-118.66.

net net, screwed up my 4k profits, and cut them in half.

lesson...overtrade = overkill.

i have my own system in place for trading, but i benefit A LOT from this board, sometimes helping me confirm, but more often keeping me aware of aspects that i don't always think about. my particular view is to keep your system fairly simple and repeatable. if you can do that, then i think you can move towards the higher level "optimization" process which is where i feel like cobra is. even with that being said, sometimes, like this morning, your system says up, you think up, and the market goes down and vice a versa, over and over again. i've been at this for 8 years, 5 professionally, 3 for myself, and i can tell you that you are still vulnerable to even the basic mantras of profitable trading.

hate myself for pissing away what i generally target as 2 days of profits, but...we learn and learn, and learn again.

i'm short a small position into the weekend.

good luck trading, and thanks for everyone out their's time and efforts in posting up their ideas, thoughts, and most especially charts.

have a great holiday weekend,
john

Good lesson man, definently did that when I first started charting intraday...I look at mainly daily and weekly now.
I also need to leaarn more about options...so i can make some evil $$$$$

Tinted area as Descending Triangle target.

cougar wrote:

AK84 wrote:

cougar wrote:So…according to their expert posts, it looks like “AK84” and “waverider” shorted NFLX…
Congratulations to both of them!!!

I have one observation: most intelligent and original technical analysts I know are also very astute speculators of fundamentals and news - real and fabricated. The famous sentence” news don’t matter” is an “ego trip” that they put in the preface of their books, destined to sell a lot. The really good “salesmen” among them accompany this statement with another one: “ It doesn’t matter if you have a 2-digits IQ, and never had any math in your education…just use the tricks I’ll teach you…”
And then comes: ”…500 bucks for the course…por favor”

I guess my statement of "news doesnt matter" sounded stupid. I didnt mean to sound like a Dbag with a huge ego because honestly I dont have one. Actually in my opinion news matters and does drive the charts but with the pattern forming on NFLX on the weekly and many other single stocks , the reason I said news doenst matter is because someone ALREADY knew the news and thats why I feel TA works.....people know things ahead of time that give us TA traders insight on how to position ourselves. WIthout news and fundamentals, there would be no TA and no charts. I do follow fundamentals as well obviously but that is more for investors and buy and hold guys.

Look at the GS weekly chart before yday's govt subpoena broke out . You should have already been short GS on a weekly timeframe. Obviously this is because someone already knew this and was positioned ahead. If the SEC were to investigate all these guys, maybe TA wouldnt work so well ?

AK 84: YOU LOOK at my 3 LB chart of GS (previously posted) which indicates what i did to them (i.e. GS) for a long time now...I appreciate that you are willing tot teach me something and criticize my trades. I am very grateful and always willing to learn. But ...are you sure, if you happen to read my posts, that I have the tendency to ignore TA in general? I am sorry if I gave you that impression.
NOW, during the last 3 days: : Did you short GS? Did you short NFLX?
I shorted GS, which I posted yesterday, well before the big drop. I did not short NFLX...There is also a next time...

Hey cougar,

I am not trying to argue with u. You are way smarter than I am in terms of charting and I appreciate ur insight and posts here a lot ! I was simply trying to apologize if my statement " news doesn't matter" sounded dumb and unclear. I was trying to explain myself and not trying to show an ego because I'm just a an amateur at best and have a lot to learn from u all here.. And yes I have been short nflx via puts the last few days. I hv been posting my positions quite regularly. I was not short GS because I had money tied up elsewhere.. U cant catch em all ( I wud hv been able to if I were a rich guy ) ur GS charts r great. I just used it an an example to show that the chart already told us to be short GS (and then the news broke out )....

I was not trying to teach u anything or criticize ur trade / method so if it came across that way I apologize in advance. Just coz I did well on Nflx doesn't mean anything. There have been positions i hv lost on as well. It's part of the game .. No ego involved at all my friend!

Cheers!

Newbie to this site. Legit pattern? Could lead to a very ugly Tuesday.

Now doing a 2nd back test of the triangle support/resistance line at about 117.50.

Rectangle breakdown could be a bear trap -- lets see if we can close above ES 1177 today and regain the rectangle area.