12/14/2011 Intraday Watering

[Roadrunner]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rumour get floated in the media right about now to reverse the current down

[BullBear52x]

The $VIX is so strong, so, not looking good for bulls unless it drops first.

[Petsamo]

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I say go for it.

[Me XMan]

UNG is a turd

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I say go for it.

[Me XMan]

Isn't that around 3pm?

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rumour get floated in the media right about now to reverse the current down

[BullBear52x]

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I owned UNG in my long term account, the biggest loser.

[Al_Dente]

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

While I’m on guard watching for a squeeze-spike-cockroach and/or for uempel’s 11:59 mark…
PAGING ANYONE INTERESTED IN THE “DISPARITY INDEX” I POSTED MONDAY
Following up on Fosback’s “Disparity Index”. When I substituted RSP equal weighted index (which Cobra follows short term for divergence signals) for $NYADV (which has problems over the longer term), I found another long-term bearish disparity (which as you may recall, Fosback’s tests found the resolution was eventually in favor of the broader-based indices. Also in case u r interested, he computer-simulated an antique broad-based index and found same bear disparity in 1928 the year before the big crash).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... =250996412

If anyone cares to comment about how I might be abusing Norm’s theory by viewing it as a RATIO when he compared the indices STRAIGHT UP, or if anyone has links to computer backtests that are more current than Norm’s, please post.

[stockcycle]

SPY: I see the 7-th red bars in the hourly chart and I think I need to perusal again Cobras statistic Dec 8 recently.

[Denali92]

Ok – we have the opex hourly buy signal confirmed, BUT I AM NOT TAKING it yet! That might be a mistake, BUT this year opex week has tended to trend a bit more (the last Wed low of opex week was in March and that was a pretty special low) AND more importantly post FOMC when we have headed down after the FOMC, the bottoms have been on the Thursday of FOMC week (see Sept and June of 2011 and Dec and Sep of 2010) – NOTE all of those are also quad witching months, though the FOMC is both during or after opex week), so I am going to wait on the buy signal till near tomorrow’s open.

I am also cautious because in September, if you had taken the signal on the Wed after FOMC, you got crushed! but we did bottom on the Thursday….

As for Santa rallies, they do occur…

So people are right to be expecting a Santa rally – it is just the timing of it, as in the past few years Dec opex has not produced any nasty downside moves, but they forget that in 2008 – the Monday after was the buy day for a big bounce in to the New Year…. Also, in 2005 and 2006 – the day to buy was the Tuesday after opex and in 2004, it was the Friday of opex week…. Opex week low in 2010 was on the Thursday and in 2009 it was the Friday.

Ever interesting,

-D

p.s. Also, of note – if you trade using the midcaps or the small caps, I would significantly favour the midcaps right now as they are underperforming the small caps by close to 2% in the last week

[Petsamo]

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I owned UNG in my long term account, the biggest loser.

I don't recommend UNG long-term. I made my profit and exited.

[ClarkW]

Don't have any stats for you but from what I remember many say UNG is SEVERLY FLAWED and doesn't correlate with Nat Gas prices. Just something to look into if you haven't already, IMO

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

[GreedyKojiro]

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I owned UNG in my long term account, the biggest loser.

We keep on discovering new reservoirs day by day, so the price will keep on getting cheaper and cheaper...

[Denali92]

Also, interesting is that the FTSE 250 which is a great risk on / risk off index got smoked today - down 2.2% and it looks to have another 2% to go....

Be careful out there....

Opex week is always tricky...

-D

[BullBear52x]

SPY: I see the 7-th red bars in the hourly chart and I think I need to perusal again Cobras statistic Dec 8 recently.

dead cat bounce at best.

[stockcycle]

SPY: I see the 7-th red bars in the hourly chart and I think I need to perusal again Cobras statistic Dec 8 recently.

And pay attention to that EUR/USD hourly bounced from 1.2951 support.

[Roadrunner]

Isn't that around 3pm?

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rumour get floated in the media right about now to reverse the current down

Almost always near 3 pm; but I do recall a day in the past where the reversal happened at 12:30

GLTA

[Tabby]

Ok – we have the opex hourly buy signal confirmed, BUT I AM NOT TAKING it yet! That might be a mistake, BUT this year opex week has tended to trend a bit more (the last Wed low of opex week was in March and that was a pretty special low) AND more importantly post FOMC when we have headed down after the FOMC, the bottoms have been on the Thursday of FOMC week (see Sept and June of 2011 and Dec and Sep of 2010) – NOTE all of those are also quad witching months, though the FOMC is both during or after opex week), so I am going to wait on the buy signal till near tomorrow’s open.

I am also cautious because in September, if you had taken the signal on the Wed after FOMC, you got crushed! but we did bottom on the Thursday….

As for Santa rallies, they do occur…

So people are right to be expecting a Santa rally – it is just the timing of it, as in the past few years Dec opex has not produced any nasty downside moves, but they forget that in 2008 – the Monday after was the buy day for a big bounce in to the New Year…. Also, in 2005 and 2006 – the day to buy was the Tuesday after opex and in 2004, it was the Friday of opex week…. Opex week low in 2010 was on the Thursday and in 2009 it was the Friday.

Ever interesting,

-D

p.s. Also, of note – if you trade using the midcaps or the small caps, I would significantly favour the midcaps right now as they are underperforming the small caps by close to 2% in the last week

Thank you as always. good stuff.

[Al_Dente]

Anyone else picking up gold/silver around here?

i just sold ZSL on an intraday scalp

[cougar]

The GLD breakdown will be confirmed of it closes the week under MAE(34)

Cougar thanks for gold, she’s acting like the “Madwoman of Chaillot” ...yo coug, cheerleaders, oy! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKg8G9sM ... re=related

Monday before close, Tom McClellan, interviewed on Bloomberg, explained the gold lease rates paradox and the “point of recognition” threshold. It is probably still available in the archive of B. Those interested in the real stuff might read it to understand what is happening…
No “conspiracy theory”! Just pure arbitrage in specific trading conditions…amplified by greed!

Thanks cougar
Anyone on board who can find the link to that Bloomberg Mcclellan interview and/or can translate “gold lease rates paradox and the point of recognition threshold” into English, gets a plate of spaghetti on the house.

LOL! Maybe during the ”weekend watering”…after the “game of the season”: Broncos vs. Patriots…
Until then…keep those cheerleaders warm and “Shakin' that Tailgate!!
Thanx!

[99er]

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_3654.html

The gaps. At this rate, could take all day.

Later.