01/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[TraderGirl]

Demark said the top will be today in a recent interview, hmm. /YM does look somewhat weak. Granville says the DOW will drop 4000 points in 2012...

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

With that said... Goldman Sachs has support at $60...

Nice one, I rarely look at monthly charts, but I hear BAC is a better bell-wether of the market. Apparently AUD/JPY is also a good indicator of the overall market as well.

I agree with you. I'm only posting these charts to show that this market overall is not out of the woods. I am not saying the market will top out for the year right now, but March does have significance and we will have to see what happens then. I am just showing that some of these stocks still have some ways to go down. And re: BAC, lower highs so far since April, 2010, even yesterday was lower than Oct 28th... we will have to see if we get a higher high, but it will still be lower than the last high on Jan 14, 2011...

[L_T]

All aboard the TVIX train! Ding ding ding! Last call!

I missed the chance to buy at $19.20. I think I'm gonna sit out.

I hope I'll get an answer this time...How about VIX June 20 calls? How is it different better/worse than buying shares of TVIX?

I asked earlier but did not get an answer

Ummm well you are buying futures option versus ETN (think debt instrument like bond). Option will degrade over time and ETN won't, but I'm assuming that this isn't something you would hold for very long. Sorry that's layman stuff but what are you really asking?

[99er]

Update

30-Year http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/536

[tdo722]

All aboard the TVIX train! Ding ding ding! Last call!

I missed the chance to buy at $19.20. I think I'm gonna sit out.

I hope I'll get an answer this time...How about VIX June 20 calls? How is it different better/worse than buying shares of TVIX?

I asked earlier but did not get an answer

I'm sorry but I don't have the answer for you. I don't think others do. Otherwise they would have responded to you. best wishes!

[waverider]

Nobody knows.[/quote]

Exactly, they want eyeballs, bloomberg doesn't care whether these guys are right or not. I just think it's entertaining to listen to them, Granville sounded quite sure of himself haha.

[tdo722]

Granville looks like that preacher that called for dooms day May 2011 for the rapture. But if he said he meant for the stock market, he would have a legion of followers by now instead of will be dying in a retirement home soon.

[bushwaffle]

Hey Earlybird52xx I got the same sell signals...why ain't we gettin' paid yet, lol.

[Al_Dente]

1min
Nydec 1570 (see lobster) still shows bears aren’t overly aggressive… yet…still suggests whips
Still on caution watch for dip-buyers/short covering….
(VIX 5min bb still crimping, not on this chart)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250028427


Moves Like Jagger ....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-zSJ1Iy ... re=related

[jarbo456]

All aboard the TVIX train! Ding ding ding! Last call!

I missed the chance to buy at $19.20. I think I'm gonna sit out.

I hope I'll get an answer this time...How about VIX June 20 calls? How is it different better/worse than buying shares of TVIX?

I asked earlier but did not get an answer

I'm sorry but I don't have the answer for you. I don't think others do. Otherwise they would have responded to you. best wishes!

If you don't know what you're doing with options, you're daring the devil to lose money. Although the levered ETF has time decay as well, you have time decay (theta), value of implied volatility, and gamma value to consider when you are buying the VIX options. If you have a handle of those concepts, then go ahead and consider the options position.

To give you an idea of how IV and gamma affect the option price, you can take a look at my KOG position. I saw KOG break below it's parabolic uptrend line. I bought KOG puts as KOG was trading around $9.75. KOG is now down between 4-5% since I bought the puts...but my option position is broke even. Not great when you consider the fact that I'm paying $170 per round turn for this trade (50 contracts). So how come my puts haven't gained any value even though my KOG March 10 puts are in the money, and the underlying is moving in my direction? Implied volatility, and the fact that when I bought the puts, volatility in general was much higher. Higher volatility means more expensive options...etc. etc. etc.

So keep some of these things in mind when you take a look to trade options over the underlying. If you got the hang of it - then shoot for the moon. Hope some of this was simple enough and helpful a little bit for ya...gl.

[99er]

Update

RUT http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/551

[Al_Dente]

NOT MARKET RELATED
anyone in AZ feel earthquake one minute ago?

[L_T]

NOT MARKET RELATED
anyone in AZ feel earthquake one minute ago?

It's 2012. The world is supposed to end right? Who knew it would start in Arizona?

[BullTart]

All aboard the TVIX train! Ding ding ding! Last call!

I missed the chance to buy at $19.20. I think I'm gonna sit out.

I hope I'll get an answer this time...How about VIX June 20 calls? How is it different better/worse than buying shares of TVIX?

I asked earlier but did not get an answer

I'm sorry but I don't have the answer for you. I don't think others do. Otherwise they would have responded to you. best wishes!

If you don't know what you're doing with options, you're daring the devil to lose money. Although the levered ETF has time decay as well, you have time decay (theta), value of implied volatility, and gamma value to consider when you are buying the VIX options. If you have a handle of those concepts, then go ahead and consider the options position.

To give you an idea of how IV and gamma affect the option price, you can take a look at my KOG position. I saw KOG break below it's parabolic uptrend line. I bought KOG puts as KOG was trading around $9.75. KOG is now down between 4-5% since I bought the puts...but my option position is broke even. Not great when you consider the fact that I'm paying $170 per round turn for this trade (50 contracts). So how come my puts haven't gained any value even though my KOG March 10 puts are in the money, and the underlying is moving in my direction? Implied volatility, and the fact that when I bought the puts, volatility in general was much higher. Higher volatility means more expensive options...etc. etc. etc.

So keep some of these things in mind when you take a look to trade options over the underlying. If you got the hang of it - then shoot for the moon. Hope some of this was simple enough and helpful a little bit for ya...gl.

You should read the prospectus if you are not familiar with the ETN (http://www.velocityshares.com/pdf/TVIXProductPage.pdf). The underlying asset it tracks is the S&P 500 VIX short term futures which is a weighted average maturity of 1 month.

Review the vix term structure.

But as jarbo said, be careful if you don't understand how VIX term structures, skew and its futures operate. Go to Vix and More to learn if you are not already familiar.

[climbera5]

NOT MARKET RELATED
anyone in AZ feel earthquake one minute ago?

My wife just walked down the hall, does that count?

[Richarab]

NOT MARKET RELATED
anyone in AZ feel earthquake one minute ago?

My wife just walked down the hall, does that count?

dont speak about your wife that way, she is a lovely woman - at least that's how i remember her....our time together last summer, ...in the motel room, ...from behind....
....

[tdo722]

NOT MARKET RELATED
anyone in AZ feel earthquake one minute ago?

My wife just walked down the hall, does that count?

dont speak about your wife that way, she is a lovely woman - at least that's how i remember her....our time together last summer, ...in the motel room, ...from behind....
....

didn't know you're like that, haha...

[SWalsh]

These markets are liquid, they are bouncing everywhere...

Did you mean to say "illiquid"?

My thesis this whole time is that this can ONLY happen, since 2008, because they wiped out so much managed money that there is a consolidated Star Chamber of sorts with the tradings desks that they can now easily manipulate the mkt. What we are seeing now is a great deal of quote stuffing. I'm not the only one who thinks this way as the mkts are now different. I speak to a firm that manages a great deal of money and also follows the HFT/Algo activity and they see it too at key points that have a decidedly bullish bias. They also have an affinity for doing it in the last 2-3 seconds of a minute so the bar paints their way.

i've definitely seen that...the bar paints in the last second or two...pretty unbelievable stuff.

[BullBear52x]

Follow through weakness under 5dma the trend follower will pile in tomorrow, that said.....get your front seat row now

[L_T]

OK lets play "who can handle the most charts at once". I currently have TOS free chart on one tab, freestockcharts.com on another, stockcharts.com on 4 other tabs. No fair including tabs that you only look at once a day/week/month. I actually juggle each of these throughout the day. Oh and I'm probably totally out there because I don't actually make any money from this, it's more for fun.

I have a feeling someone out there (Cobra?) has probably 30 charts they keep up with throughout the day and I'm an under-achiever.

Game on!

[Cobra]

the 3rd try on the upside, so more likely to breakout this time. again overall, bulls not bad.