Page 9 of 9
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:41 pm
by StrikePrice
newbie_77 wrote:
strikeprice,
it may seem that 118 might be too low for a max pain
@ least for the monthly. i am sure there were lot of put buying in last 2 weeks in the lower range so MM will try to jerk it up to about 123-125 @ least. to invalidate all payouts in the lower range.
Not a Max Pain number. Current Pain number. Not sure the difference though.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:43 pm
by 99er
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:44 pm
by Cobra
nothing to say, as I said doesn't feel bearish but tomorrow must be up otherwise it only proves that this is just a rebound.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:44 pm
by nasa1100
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:45 pm
by Mario TR
bull flag?
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:46 pm
by pdz
same feeling. MM will kill most put bears this OE. The next week is hard to say though
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:52 pm
by Anaconda
Double top? Chiosc back to normal. Look at ROC on volume - way back down. Positioning for more down to come.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:53 pm
by StrikePrice
nasa1100 wrote:
huge up next...
I see setting up for a huge down...
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:55 pm
by StrikePrice
Wow. I see symmetry. Am I the only one who sees the Diamond top now?
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:56 pm
by Mr. BachNut
Mr. BachNut wrote:debossman08 wrote:Mr. BachNut wrote:FYI. VIX option expiration is tomorrow. There are a lot of in the money calls at 30 and 27.5 strikes relative to puts. Market makers, if their their books are on the short side, may take a crack at pushing some of that out of the money late in the day/open tomorrow...like picking a ripe fruit. Just a possibility to be aware of...can't be sure.
BachNut,
Newbie here. Does that mean big money will try to keep the VIX below 27.5 (low) resulting in a green/bullish tomorrow?
Thanks for posting. I'm not exactly sure where to get the calls/puts/strike info either.
This is similar to looking at the Max Pain (the price where the maximum number of puts and calls expire worthless) for a big etf like SPY near an option expiration day. It has a gravity in that it maximises the premium kept by the option writers and minimizes the exercises to be dealt with. So, as expiration day approaches, it is not uncommon to observe a push toward this level. It is one variable in the mix.
It looks irrelevant now in light of the post Merkel/Sarkozy trading.
I get my data off of my trading software, which shows open interest numbers for options.
One more thing debossman, the VIX options settle at the
open tomorrow not the close. It looks like 32.5 strike is the battleground at the moment.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:56 pm
by Me XMan
HFT machines were taken offline. Humans have taken over last 10 mins.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:58 pm
by Cobra
well, guess that's it for today. tomorrow must be up otherwise it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:59 pm
by Petsamo
Thank goodness I unloaded X with a profit. X sank like a rock!
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:07 pm
by silicon_beaver
loaded some at end of day. see ya tomorrow.
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:10 pm
by soku
DAMN, i need somebody come to my office and slap me in face. yesterday, my boss' secretary ordered lunch for me. when she came to my office, she saw my charts on SODA. and she asked me how to trade it. i told her to buy 47.5p, then i totally forgot it. today i am busy with some monthly transactions. right before close, she called me and ask what to do with those puts. DAMN it.
KENA, where r u. i need something to bite
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:45 pm
by grachu
Cobra, when you say " it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound" ... BUT THis is what you have been saying all along , that the any rebound is sell... ? you are expecting another leg down .... to retest the lows no ?
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:07 pm
by v1stock.com
spy 2 days lower low, start of down.
SPDR S&P 500
SPY
Last Trade: 119.59
Change: Down 1.03 (0.85%)
Prev Close: 120.62
Open: 119.47
Day's Range: 118.31 - 120.69
52wk Range: 104.29 - 137.18
stop 118.30
It’s a Technical Mess All Over the World: Yamada
Yamada says "all of them have come into long-term sell signals" with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Jakarta, and a few U.S. markets.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 07964.html
Re: 08/16/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:21 pm
by Cobra
grachu wrote:Cobra, when you say " it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound" ... BUT THis is what you have been saying all along , that the any rebound is sell... ? you are expecting another leg down .... to retest the lows no ?
Yes, I expect another leg down but I keep looking for evidences supporting more on the upside so as to make sure my call stay on the right side. I mean we have to change according to the market, trade what we see not we believe.