09/13/2011 Intraday Watering

[Michelle]

The dollar appears to have backtested it's breakout point.

yes sir

or excuse me, ma'am!

[ultramarine]

The dollar appears to have backtested it's breakout point.

I wonder if it will fill the gap at 21.83 in the UUP chart. Tall order for today, but maybe later in the week.

[heavenskrow]

it also looks like a bull flag now in the hourly chart http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

[cougar]

SPY 60 min gave a short swing BUY signal, with simultaneous confirmation (yellow vertical line).
However, as a longer swings player, I stay hedged and wait for a conversion of this signal into a “steady UP” - above 118.

Thanks for the chart. So if you were long you would hold into the close regardless of the movement on the close?

It depends on what they will do on close…Usually, there are ways to tell at the beginning of the last hour of trade. But if the atmosphere stays “uneventful”, then YES…I would keep it and maybe I would reduce the risk with a small hedge…

It appears now that, today,the line in the sand is indeed SPY = 118

[stockcycle]

May be a little shy @118 before the target 118.5

[heavenskrow]

HMMM wait a second....the recent breakout on the dollar could be just a part of a bigger bear channel....

[Be4chst]

Double bottom and then double top.
Holding my breath right now.

[qtipped]

i covered for a little profit...thought we were going to bounce off the MA and shoot for today's highs again. guess i'm wrong and now of course it drops more after i covered.

still a good chance we get to 118.10-118.25 area....looks my cover was a good decision.

overall mkt sentiment is measuring good with europe closing positive. i will short another day and may go long a little.

i'm raising my target to 118.50-60 area for tops today. too bad my bid for some spy calls didn't get filled...looks like machines are running the game today and are taking it slow mo...

[Cobra]

volume surge plus overshot, another pullback is possible here, then we'll see, key time as it's the revisit of the previous high.

[mac769]

Last month NYSE reported record high short interest (bullish for spy).

Bears couldn’t follow thru yest after the big rout on Friday. Small ramp up at close yest was ALL short covering. If it was real bulls buying, we would have seen evidence somewhere, like a spike in TBT/drop in TLT. We didn’t see that. Real bull buying shows when the bulls sell bonds (TBT spikes) to buy stock. They didn’t. Or they sell gold/silver to buy stocks. They didn’t.

(Money doesn’t move in a vacuum, it has to move from HERE to THERE.)

When too many shorts run for cover it can provide monster rallies, monster. Then a giant drop the minute a bad news report comes out, EU sneezes, etc., and the short covering stops, and the market is left to the bulls to hold it up… but no bulls yet … we’ll see it in the numbers.

Until VIX (fear index) calms down to below 30, and some of that excess short interest gets reduced by covering rallies, we could be in for some violent moves, BOTH WAYS. We can't be "a bear" or "a bull" in this market, just flexible, and flip from red to green when the numbers demand, and honor our stops, and follow The Cobra.

(Little spike TBT already on open today, let’s watch for follow through. But VERY slow opening).

... still on the downtrend, maybe the bond traders know more than the equity types...

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/153/captureuwq.png

but in the end, who knows... what they are up to

Stale news link because short interest only reports monthly. New report should be out on the 15th. Someone please chirp when they see the new one.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... -june-2010

Hi there

now at least in the 4hr chart there seems some selling going on in the 10yrs

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/2792/capturexp.png

so maybe this is the start for the test of 1185+

who knows

[agnosia]

sold out of /cl 90.50 because i want to go play nintendo wii .. have a good one guys thanks cobra.

[bubba22]

Anyone get this Ghost candle from yesterday, it is showing up in all of my smaller time frame charts in TD Ameritrade?

[bubba22]

Attached Chart, from yesterday

[BullTart]

Why do I get the sick feeling the whoever did the mass buying at 2:30pm yesterday will show up today at 2:30pm and start some serious mass selling now that we're up at these elevated prices?

Talk about taking people's money away! Let's see if that happens. If it does, it's a sign that the sharks are growing more and more brazen and approaching shallower waters! Watch out!

[seekingknowledge]

Anyone get this Ghost candle from yesterday, it is showing up in all of my smaller time frame charts in TD Ameritrade?

Yes, I did ... and posted the question the question on the Weekend board. Didn't get a response. The tail did NOT shows up on any candlestick until after the market closed. However, the summation did show that this was the high. For example, if you look at Cobra's 5 min print screen at 3:40 on Friday, you will see that the summation noted a high of this 119.x high, but none of the 5-min candlesticks registered the fact. Very, very strange and shows how manipulated the market is.

[stockcycle]

May be it needs some kind of breath/consolidation @117.5 before the race for the target 118.5

[heavenskrow]

bonds could fall a little more, and stocks can rally a little more....

BUT i think i know where we will eventually end up =]

[mac769]

If a selling is not strong enough today I will lighten up my short etf to the bare minimum. EDZ is doing quite well in comparison to states short etfs.

EDZ ! Boy you have big bolls

my regular FAS/FAZ EDC/EDZ TYH/TYP SRS/IYR FXI/FXP TZN/TZA

High octane don't you think?

Okay mister big pants.
KRE is popping up on my pretty-small watch list. That is VERY unusual. xlf(fas) is all the banks, kre is exclusively all the little regionals which can confirm/non-confirm a decent bank move and they usually like to non-confirm. But I’ll be darned the kre is confirming banking move. European banks are set to default any minute now and our banks are up????? Can’t fight with it, just gotta go with it till it breaks down, oops now breaking down.
Comments?

yes, just look at HBAN, the regionals dont seem to suffer from the Euro malaise...

this looks to me like a "small butterfly" in the making

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/4105/captureipa.png

[cougar]

May be it needs some kind of breath/consolidation @117.5 before the race for the target 118.5

Interesting "stockcycle"! This is, however, a minor move... No"race into it" - IMHO...But how did you come up with it? Can you show a chart?

[auger]

Cup and Handle forming on 5 min. SPY, perhaps?