Cobra's Market View

for educational only, here is bear flag, I will call it invalid once the top red dot breaks.

Al_Dente wrote:Stucap
Nydec 2181 = nice bear, nice cuddly “bear trend”

STATS at this moment only (schwab numbers):
Advancers 817
Decliners 2210
Unchanged 74
Nice odds quite skewed bear
Lets see if this changes now as I post
I dare you
Yup, just changed

thank you sir. i've been watching decliners like a hawk. also keeping an eye on the hourly ES chart. looks like 200 bar moving average is the support and we're right at it.

italy cut. not really a mover. still in wait for france

I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

taggard wrote:...

earlier you mentioned max pain and spy 126. i have to say i have not had good "luck" over the years with max pain. options week does get impacted--but it is very situational (in my experience). here your idea is interesting in light of (1) the last 3 days action in spy maybe producing a measured move to roughly 126. (2) as well as a gap at the start of the year which is just under 126.
...

me second this. where were you when we had a warm discussion on mp?

Update

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/eurusd_13.html

What's for lunch?\

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

Because all trend based systems currently have a "buy" signal. Mean reversion based systems are the cautious ones. I'm perma bear, glutton for punishment.

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

retailers buying calls on what they view as a cheap time to get in finally? trying to catch the train they missed?

Thanks for sharing that link Jarbo, I was looking for live options feeds.

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx_2218.html

Did someone ask for red sauce?

waverider wrote:Thanks for sharing that link Jarbo, I was looking for live options feeds.

i watch that one daily. that kid...yes he's a KID (and this is coming from me who's only 30), is very good at giving color on the VIX market. i'm also a long time student of vix and all the jazz that goes into vol and implied vol (i almost exclusively trade futures and options).

France and Italy just got downgraded, and no response? What happend to all the robots?

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

Hi Cobra. I think it is likely due to high hope of more QE coming from Jan 24-25's Fed meeting. It may have something to do with the recent rally from 1200 to 1290. Otherwise it is hard to imagine the market has power to go up almost 100 points without any good news from Europe. Please read the following CNBC article about this.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098

costco wrote:

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

Hi Cobra. I think it is likely due to high hope of more QE coming from Jan 24-25's Fed meeting. It may have something to do with the recent rally from 1200 to 1290. Otherwise it is hard to imagine the market has power to go up almost 100 points without any good news from Europe. Please read the following CNBC article about this.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098

all recent econ news are good, aren't they? So definitely no QE.I don't think market is betting on this.

cobra,
fwiw, i think we cannot just rely on the actual volume information. reason i say that is "call" can be used as a bearish as well. for example at this moment i can sell 100 SPY calls of Jan 21 at strike $130 and buy $132 for net credit of 0.31c. it will show up in volume as 100+100= 200 but its not i am being bullish. i am placing the bearish bet.
we will have to keep in account the open interests as well.

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

lunch time. I'm clueless about the market so I keep my mouse shut anyway.

costco wrote:

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

Hi Cobra. I think it is likely due to high hope of more QE coming from Jan 24-25's Fed meeting. It may have something to do with the recent rally from 1200 to 1290. Otherwise it is hard to imagine the market has power to go up almost 100 points without any good news from Europe. Please read the following CNBC article about this.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098

when i am checking the link, i saw this one on the side. it seems there are tons of aapl fans in china. even tho ip4s is made in china, it is not on market yet? wow
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45982217

[/quote] all recent econ news are good, aren't they? So definitely no QE.I don't think market is betting on this.[/quote]

Yes, you are correct. But from the CNBC article, the wall street analysts are seeing high chances of additional QE coming (range from 40% to 60% chances). What's your thought on this?

noob wrote:France and Italy just got downgraded, and no response? What happend to all the robots?

Italy, Spain and Portugal -2, France -1. That's what i've heard.

Bonus trading positions and ideas.

http://goo.gl/7hn7e