01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

[lazytrader]

Cobra,

This if from Springheel Jack. He wants to share with you.

http://screencast.com/t/gWXAI7ZL

Thanks

[tdo722]

please bring it back to 1290 so I can cash out. haha...

[SWalsh]

SWalsh, thanks for the Atlantic article

Pretty much a prophesy when written in May of 2009. he warned us of what would happen to our economy and financial system if we fed oligarchs, and it has all happened.

If anyone has iTunes, subscribe (free) to Dan Carlin's "Hardcore History" and listen to about 15 very well researched hours on the fall of Rome. The political and economic parallels are truly astounding.

[taggard]

the problem with creating liquidity and at the same time trying to force austerity at the same time is that masses of people are crushed

"Crushed" indeed! Hussman had a report out in October showing what the Quantitative Easing did in Japan over its many attempts. For every dollar put in the velocity of money slowed. The net affect was that it did nothing. I suspect ours is only different, for a while at least, as there is a quid pro quo that they are to buy equities.

My kids went to a top University and have fine degrees and are now lucky to be working at less than half the pay they would have received 5 years ago. And my family has a number of LEO in it. That "Thin Blue Line" is a lot thinner than people realize. I stridently oppose the OWS movement as they should be before Congress and the president with the loons removed. I know that the police are quite worried about what they will be able to do to maintain law-and-order if there are cutbacks in both pensions and benefits to the poor. What does this have to do with the markets? I think it's all factored into keeping the mkt elevated. I have an economist friend who is razor sharp and teaches. He's not one of those shills on CNBC who always say stocks are undervalued. He said it is quite easy to make a case that the fair value of the S&P is under 500. He drafted a course of booms and busts in history after reading Reinhardrt and Rogoff's "It's Different This Time", which cover 600+ years of economies and over 250 collapses. He can't, and won't, say that it's coming next week or in 5 years. But you can't kick debt of this magnitude down the road. All debt gets paid through massive inflation or default. Perhaps Kondratiev is right and winter is starting as each generation thinks they are smarter than the ones who screwed it up in theirs.

Here's the kicker....what happens if they are able to print paper worldwide AND like in the 80s, people buy things as they will be more expensive next year? Then while in real-terms you lose value in all assets, stocks do rise. Does this government care if more people look to it for sustenance? Oh I don't think so. I'm glad the Greatest Generation is widely gone. They gave to much for us to be in this state of confusion now.
[last soapbox post of the day]

while govs are an issue maybe the larger issue is the derivatives market. in effect banks are holding govs hostage. most voters buy into the idea that more money is good in good times--you certainly are going to get it during bad times.

this stuff is less focused (in my opinion) and more a general state of mind. derivatives and liquidity are like nano tech. (1) you can't turn back the clock (2) in many ways more people world wide--eg developing countries--are overall (ge over 20-30 years) better off. (3) but just as nano tech can do great stuff tiny particles can lodge in your brain. or eyes.

Derivatives and other liquidity (one report says 29 trillion from us fed and treasury in money/loans/guarantees/buying bad debt (go bac) are like cancer. there is no logic to the progression as they are just going to kill the host--or seriously damage him. But what's key is everyone is trying to get into the Kool-aid bowl and this is a more general condition that everyone likes to admit. we like the idea of a unified field theory--but then you have string theory. it's a mess.

as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids

[Cobra]

Cobra,

This if from Springheel Jack. He wants to share with you.

http://screencast.com/t/gWXAI7ZL

Thanks

Thanks.

[Cobra]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

[noob]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

Cobra, The morning push cannot be viewed as the first push? Thanks

[99er]

Update

SPX http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/125

Did cougar mention a Butterfly?

[soku]

div?
http://screencast.com/t/Ha1P0Tqz68k

[Cobra]

I believe I made the 2nd score. How strong this pullback will determine if I need change my plan. let's wait.

[Cobra]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

Cobra, The morning push cannot be viewed as the first push? Thanks

this is how I count 3 push up. You know the 3 push is just a name. More precise name should be N Push Up, every push up gets weaker and weaker than a reversal is possible.

[TraderGirl]

I'm indoctrinated in Elliott Wave Theory, so I can't help but try to chart this stuff.

The more I study the SPX wave movement from Dec 20, the more I believe today's action is completing only the 3rd wave of what should be a 5-wave series. In my view, that means there may be another week or so of action similar to that of the last week. IOW, a dip into the 1260s/1270s and subsequent rally. This wave structure doesn't mean there must be another high, but it means more bear torture.

Chevy, have you ever done a comparison of wave structure to VIX? My understanding is that VIX will usu bottom or top out on 3rd wave..?? Do you have any thoughts?

No I haven't, but your VIX statement interests me. If I adjust the chart (not a major adjustment) and place us currently at the end of the 5th wave, the 3rd wave would have topped Jan 10, the same time VIX bottomed. So your VIX theory doesn't support the chart I posted. Maybe I should re-think it. If this last wave forms an ending diagonal, then I particularly think I should re-think it.

I guess we will see what happens...?? I feel as though we will get a big push down either end of week this week or Monday, then another try for higher highs next week, but don't' know if they will be higher...??

I look at the Semi's and the look like they have had an exhaustion move up, I show neg div on my screen for RSI and Momentum on this big move up, so we will see if they can go higher in the next week or so...

[cougar]

Update

SPX http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/125

Did cougar mention a Butterfly?

Yes, I did...in the making...

[noob]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

Cobra, The morning push cannot be viewed as the first push? Thanks

this is how I count 3 push up. You know the 3 push is just a name. More precise name should be N Push Up, every push up gets weaker and weaker than a reversal is possible.

Thanks! Right, n push up. Have you added to any longs today? Much appreciated.

[Cobra]

div?
http://screencast.com/t/Ha1P0Tqz68k

the biggest divergence should be this one. but again, signals don't work until price confirms.

[Al_Dente]

Internals? Give it a rest Al Dente. King Cobra is calling everthing perfectly today (as per usual). Just zip it up Al and listen to Cobra.

I’M GOING TO HAVE TO CUT/PASTE THIS ENTIRE BOARD TODAY, JUST TO MAKE SURE I DIDN’T MISS ANYTHING…LEAVING NOTHING OUT…

Paging Newbies: Oy, if only u knew how lucky u are to be reading this board today…

PS: SWalsh: As u know, Reinhardrt’s“This Time is Different” has rapidly become THE new cornerstone work on crises throughout history, just reinforcing your pointing it out, but newbies might have a hard time with its “data heavy”.
PPS: I bot that book via King Cobra’s amazon link, hint hint

[Cobra]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

Cobra, The morning push cannot be viewed as the first push? Thanks

this is how I count 3 push up. You know the 3 push is just a name. More precise name should be N Push Up, every push up gets weaker and weaker than a reversal is possible.

Thanks! Right, n push up. Have you added to any longs today? Much appreciated.

Yes, I longed. Actually should long at close yesterday, but I overrode the rule which apparently was not right although I'm lucky today, it didn't gap up huge.

[fehro]

so close....one more pop?... or back down to red trendline...

[noob]

maintain the plan. the 3rd push up is already 2 legged, so the next pullback should be a little bigger.

Cobra, The morning push cannot be viewed as the first push? Thanks

this is how I count 3 push up. You know the 3 push is just a name. More precise name should be N Push Up, every push up gets weaker and weaker than a reversal is possible.

Thanks! Right, n push up. Have you added to any longs today? Much appreciated.

Yes, I longed. Actually should long at close yesterday, but I overrode the rule which apparently was not right although I'm lucky today, it didn't gap up huge.

Cool thanks for the heads up.

[Cobra]

pullback isn't enough so a rebound here would bring us to a new high, we need change the plan then.