02/10/2012 Intraday Watering

[soku]

chart reading 1339.5 cycle peak. anything above bull trap

[Cobra]

lunch time, will be back. maintain the plan. still don't see the rebound as strong.

[TraderGirl]

Does look like another Friday hammer - will leave people with lots of questions over the weekend....

Last time we had a down Friday hammer before opex was in January! - that caused a lot of pain for the Bears...... the one before that was in July which caused a lot of pain for the bulls....

Me? While I side with the bears.... I must admit this board feels like it is VERY BEARISH and everyone is looking for more downside.... and if there is NO catalyst over the weekend.....

Anyway, opex should be very interesting..... I will try to post some interesting analogs for next week.... the one I favour is all about a low early in the week (most likely Tuesday or Wednesday) and then a bounce in to Friday and then another low after the holiday weekend - that is a script that was followed in June of 2009, Nov 2010, April of 2011 and July of 2011....

-D

We could bounce Monday after the "potential" c wave down, with potential support around 1326....but Weds Feb 15 has a hard aspect between Venus Uranus and Pluto (negative aspect) which coincides with another Greek meeting on the same day, so we will have to see if that results in a lower market....? I think you hear bearishness because everyone is looking for a pullback to go long....volatility is good...

[KeiZai]

Does look like another Friday hammer - will leave people with lots of questions over the weekend....

Last time we had a down Friday hammer before opex was in January! - that caused a lot of pain for the Bears...... the one before that was in July which caused a lot of pain for the bulls....

Me? While I side with the bears.... I must admit this board feels like it is VERY BEARISH and everyone is looking for more downside.... and if there is NO catalyst over the weekend.....

Anyway, opex should be very interesting..... I will try to post some interesting analogs for next week.... the one I favour is all about a low early in the week (most likely Tuesday or Wednesday) and then a bounce in to Friday and then another low after the holiday weekend - that is a script that was followed in June of 2009, Nov 2010, April of 2011 and July of 2011....

-D

Its maybe because people are not see the world through pink glasses, just look around no volume, horrible economic data, defaults, recession, etc...anyways GL in trading long or short

[Petsamo]

The perfect way to close this thing is to close at the lows. If that happens, we should gap up Monday.

[waverider]

AAPL is getting dumped

[BullBear52x]

No need to short the indexes today, there will probably be a retest of the highs.

wave target and V-bottom target all pointing up and more and more people are talking about it, this make me go Hmm

Yeah, in order to hold short for a swing I'd want to see a lot of follow through here. DX looks like a bull flag, but it may test lower first.

dx.png

I posted something on UUP, I am looking for 22.20 to go oyay!

http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/

[fehro]

TZA time?

[TraderGirl]

Sometimes a "turn" comes in the market when time and price are right. We hit long term resistance, and hit a turn date at the same time. Usually a turn results in a "sentiment change". Last night S&P downgraded the majority of Italian banks...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... 5120120210

[ClarkW]

No need to short the indexes today, there will probably be a retest of the highs.

wave target and V-bottom target all pointing up and more and more people are talking about it, this make me go Hmm

Yeah, in order to hold short for a swing I'd want to see a lot of follow through here. DX looks like a bull flag, but it may test lower first.

dx.png

I posted something on UUP, I am looking for 22.20 to go oyay!

http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/

Are you playing UUP through the stock or options?

[SWalsh]

EW:

Looks like the correction morphed into a less complex pattern:

[BullBear52x]

No need to short the indexes today, there will probably be a retest of the highs.

wave target and V-bottom target all pointing up and more and more people are talking about it, this make me go Hmm

Yeah, in order to hold short for a swing I'd want to see a lot of follow through here. DX looks like a bull flag, but it may test lower first.

dx.png

I posted something on UUP, I am looking for 22.20 to go oyay!

http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/

Are you playing UUP through the stock or options?

Through stock, I am not buying it yet.

[Petsamo]

repurchased POT sold earlier, basis dropped by 40 cents

[waverider]

I posted something on UUP, I am looking for 22.20 to go oyay!

http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/[/quote]

Nice, hopefully it gets there. Enjoying those charts on your blog, bookmarked it.

[KeiZai]

DAX chart from one guy from London, he is really good and mostly right, although EW is not mine trading tool will watch it

[Petsamo]

long XME 53.38, 100 shares

[Cobra]

hmm, bulls are weaker than I thought. but now there's no turning back for bears, must push down hard, otherwise the low was in. let's see.

[Denali92]

Well…. next week will certainly be interesting ….

My data is all hand maintained in Excel and it is frequently updated with additional research or further investigation….

Anyway, if we end up with a Hammer type candlestick day that is lower – there are two recent Friday’s before opex that had such a candlestick – Jan 2012 (we know what happened that week!) and July 2011 where we were down decently on Monday and Tuesday.

Anyway, I went back to my data to find opex weeks where we were down from the Thursday before opex (as it is rare) – I found two that are not that helpful as we were in volatile periods and the week before opex was corrective – these were May 2010 (flash crash) and Sep 2011 (significant volatility)

That leaves three other weeks since 2007 (my data pre 2007 is not complete with this type of info….)

October 2007 (The all time top for SPX was the Thursday before) – we traded down all week and then made the bottom for the month on the Monday after opex

June 2009 – Mentioned this one before – we had a choppy week the week before opex and then went down Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (gave hourly buy signals on Tuesday and Wednesday, then bounced strong in to Friday – where we got hourly Sell signals) and then we made the final opex low on the Tuesday after opex….

Lastly, July 2011 – a strange one with employment also being the week before opex – anyway, we all remember what happened that week – ended the week with a hammer candlestick on the Friday and then down Monday, hourly buy signal on Tuesday – bounce Wednesday and then final low the Monday after….

I realize these are all bearish for opex week – but that is what I am finding…. BUT I will admit that there are a few opex weeks where I have noted that we were UP in to opex week and bottomed the Friday before (thus the occasionally subjective data), one such example is January 2012…

So if we ended up with a hammer candlestick (like in January) and we do not take out 10:10am low – then a gap up on Monday, could see us with another week like Jan 2012….

Still, with the lack of an hourly BUY signal for SUCH a long time…. I must admit I heavily favour the downside in to Tuesday or Wednesday.

Sorry for the long comment – just trying to provide some pre opex perspective.

-D

[SWalsh]

No need to short the indexes today, there will probably be a retest of the highs.

The complexity of EW....I see that the high is possibly in, we did 5 waves down, and the usual slow grind broke down on that drop to 134.30. I was long for a while but exited there.

It just goes to show that no one, especially myself, should marry any analysis. It is a tool that you use to try to get an edge that you have a "net" confidence in and after that it is the trader following their rules. There are many good analysts on Wall Street who would love to trade from home, but have repeatedly failed.

[TraderGirl]

DAX chart from one guy from London, he is really good and mostly right, although EW is not mine trading tool will watch it

Nice chart. There are many cyclists who believe March 16-23rd could be the high of the year. If we are to get a "C" wave down, it could happen in an abc format, down into April/May for "a", up into June for "b", then from June 26-July 3 could result in the "c" of "C", biggest wave....??? we will see....