Cobra's Market View

My weekend target $VIX was ~21 and intraday today it hit 20.91 pierced upper daily bolinger, wasn’t really expecting that soooo soon.
Have to re-evaluate, I can’t trade bull quite yet (counter trend), I’ll be late, me sit on hands but researching more on

FB: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/04/h ... stacks-up/

FB chatter: http://business.time.com/2012/05/08/i-w ... a-brownie/
Her book “The Facebook IPO Primer” by Nancy Miller is available via Cobra’s amazon link.

Analyst consensus starts ALREADY even before the IPO (right side: under buy/sell > analysts consensus)
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/o ... ymbol=FB.O
As it’s not out yet, the Reuters symbol is FB.O ….. (O is for “oy”)

CONSIDER: only MS (or maybe the three “lead” underwriters MS, JPM, GS) know the “true” total subscription level at this point....
The other “participating” underwriters ONLY KNOW the contingent orders from their own firms.
ALL ELSE IS KOOL-AID for now…

Re-posting this roadshow link that lists the lead and participating underwriters in grey at the bottom of front page (after the disclaimer).
http://facebook.retailroadshow.com/launch.html

will anyone laugh at me if I say this is a bump and run reversal? (bearish pattern). Just from my not so clear memory, Bump and Run reversal does work. I'm not trade on either side now, closed all the day short long time ago so kind of neutral, so don't get me wrong.

cobra - does this close mean there will be more up for a day or two? Thanks

Claire wrote:cobra - does this close mean there will be more up for a day or two? Thanks

close right here, yes, we might see a day or two rebound most likely. usually the rebound would fail but if the rebound is way strong, then it'll change my NORMAL view, so need see how rebound goes.

I am buying GLD now !
up 20% is my target price.

cobra the only time I heard you talking at bump reversal was with apple . that did come through? how many times have you seen this happen? and what is the TINTED area if this is one ,? I don't know where to look for the target if this indeed a bump several. can you show ?

BullBear52x wrote:I will kneel down tonight and make peace with God.

For God to give you what you want, he has to screw someone else.

Break

My buy on X turned out well

wild-est-est-est guess.

grachu wrote: cobra the only time I heard you talking at bump reversal was with apple . that did come through? how many times have you seen this happen? and what is the TINTED area if this is one ,? I don't know where to look for the target if this indeed a bump several. can you show ?

I remember another 2 times I saw bump and run and they both worked. As for target, hmm, you got me, I need consult the book. don't remember how to calculate the target.

by the way, aapl goes as I planed on 05/04, although the lines are not in syn but it does go as planed (not exactly lower low I expect I admit.) http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /260183775;

Speaking of bump-and-run; flush at the end of day?

Cobra what do you think is most likely tomorrow ?? up or down or is this just a backtest ?

Cobra wrote:another volume surge, let's see. cannot believe the market has yet another reversal day...

They are selling into this and it appears to be heavy.

SPXU (3xshort SPX): A text book reversal pattern

at least no doubt goog goes as planed. I just wanted to show you if I can call intraday right, I can call daily right too. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /265018963;

CarlosDK wrote:Cobra what do you think is most likely tomorrow ?? up or down or is this just a backtest ?

I think we will close the gap at 136.99 SPY and then make new lows.

CarlosDK wrote:Cobra what do you think is most likely tomorrow ?? up or down or is this just a backtest ?

as I said a moment ago, we close here, looks like the market want to rebound, so I'm bullish biased for tomorrow, but don't forget, for now, officially both short-term and intermediate-term are down.

ok, looks like my bump and reversal has to wait for tomorrow. yet another reversal day!

SWalsh wrote: I think we will close the gap at 136.99 SPY and then make new lows.

There's a nice gap at 139.35$ from less than a week ago as well.

Maybe I am too picky here
Or too early
$VIX daily