Cobra's Market View

ClarkW wrote:Playing with stockcharts.com's new curves on GDX 15min.

Well that was a quick experiment to show the green curve was meaningless

You watch fertilizer names right? MOS is looking like a short here if the market continues with it's weakness (time frame of days not intraday). Don't short AGU though that thing has been anti-gravity since June.

The rebound in ADM was also very weak FWIW.[/quote]
I looked into MOS, and I've been watching POT & MOO. MOS & POT are weak relative to MOO. I wish I knew why because POT is an outstanding company. DE & MON are doing fine.

I just looked into ABX & GDX. ABX is getting beat up too. I dunno what's going on.[/quote]

Weak earnings in the gold miners. Check out NEM today. It's getting a real whipping.

MON and DE aren't fertilizer companies and are helping to keep MOO aloft (amongst others). Some of the fertilizer names gave weak guidance recently (MOS was one of them). That's the source of relative underperformance.

Update, and check the move due on the 5th - in the afternoon.

support for a bounce, or a pause...

Al_Dente wrote:there was a monster AAPL gap (already filled) on 4/24 to 4/25
$555 up to $606 which was their blowout eps report in April

That was support was tested and re- tested; she stopped there again on 7/25 at $570 which also matches our current dome target
Today she is busting her own 200sma with not many buyers around
[frankly i was expecting more bouncing....]

112aaplday.png

Thanks very much Al

volume surge again, so might see rebound here first, then might be more down.

Stop-loss triggered before and now looking to play bounce once again.

uempel wrote:Update, and check the move due on the 5th - in the afternoon.

The attachment 333.png is no longer available

OH hell yeah!!
Remember this chart?(or not) SPY 145 Puts.. very fractal--esque to the 5th-8th Oct. Should pause here... then --Buh Bye

L_T wrote:Weak earnings in the gold miners. Check out NEM today. It's getting a real whipping.

Here's the weakness of ABX relative to GDX

uempel wrote:Update, and check the move due on the 5th - in the afternoon.

333.png

Uempel,

would the direction of your "election move" have anything to do with who the winner is? I'd assume no, but want to make sure

thanks

Xian wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:there was a monster AAPL gap (already filled) on 4/24 to 4/25
$555 up to $606 which was their blowout eps report in April
That support was tested and re- tested; she stopped there again on 7/25 at $570 which also matches our current dome target
Today she is busting her own 200sma with not many buyers around
[frankly i was expecting more bouncing....]

112aaplday.png

Thanks very much Al

be sure to check yr daily aapl volume after the close...... at the moment it looks like selling volume is weakening.... we'll see

Me XMan wrote:Stop-loss triggered before and now looking to play bounce once again.

Hard to play against the trend, good luck.

uempel wrote:Update, and check the move due on the 5th - in the afternoon.

333.png

Could you please explain what you mean with this chart? Do you predict an up or a down, or just a "big move"?

Yeah I know but I think there's one more move up before election.

Out of Bounds wrote:

Me XMan wrote:Stop-loss triggered before and now looking to play bounce once again.

Hard to play against the trend, good luck.

Looking closely at support:

GDX Top Ten Holdings as of 10/3/12…
HAS 32 LONG HOLDINGS 16% U.S. and 84% international
% Assets In Top 10: 72.78%

1. Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX): 15.32%
2. Goldcorp, Inc. (GG): 13.28%
3. Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM): 9.81%
4. Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW): 5.61%
5. Yamana Gold Inc (AUY): 5.16%
6. Randgold Resources Ltd ADR (GOLD): 4.89%
7. Anglogold Ashanti Limited ADR (AU): 4.85%
8. Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO): 4.82%
9. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): 4.75%
10. Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM): 4.29%

Also, more holdings in this percentage order: GFI, BVN, RGLD, NGD, “Iamgold Corp”, HMY, ANV, “Pan American Silver”, “First Majestic Silver”, CDE, “AuRico Gold Inc”, HL, SSRI, “Nevsun Resources, Ltd”, “Aurizon Mines, Ltd.”, “Seabridge Gold, Inc.”, “Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation”, GSS, VGZ, GBG

Al_Dente wrote:there was a monster AAPL gap (already filled) on 4/24 to 4/25
$555 up to $606 which was their blowout eps report in April

That was support was tested and re- tested; she stopped there again on 7/25 at $570 which also matches our current dome target
Today she is busting her own 200sma with not many buyers around
[frankly i was expecting more bouncing....]

The attachment 112aaplday.png is no longer available

I watch the 200 EMA and it happens to have bounced off of that almost exactly.

rebound indeed. wait.

Al_Dente wrote:

Xian wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:there was a monster AAPL gap (already filled) on 4/24 to 4/25
$555 up to $606 which was their blowout eps report in April
That support was tested and re- tested; she stopped there again on 7/25 at $570 which also matches our current dome target
Today she is busting her own 200sma with not many buyers around
[frankly i was expecting more bouncing....]

112aaplday.png

Thanks very much Al

be sure to check yr daily aapl volume after the close...... at the moment it looks like selling volume is weakening.... we'll see

Also, if you go in for the OI theory, you'd need 590 today for all those puts to expire worthless....