Cobra's Market View

SPX: immediate outlook

volume surge, biggest bar, so rebound. then we'll see. bears need show strength otherwise the bias is still up.

TWT wrote:SPX: immediate outlook

Yes and to add salt to the wounds for bears, the retracement of this whole flat is only 50% which usually more upside ahead.

Petsamo wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

Petsamo wrote:For the third time, I'm playing UNG. 150 shares only @ 5.78. So far, I'm 2 for 2.

Might be a good trade now, NatGas supposedly negative till mid-Jan, but NatGas will not show signs of intermediate reversal until a daily close above 3.242, so I don't know how the UNG is correlated with NatGas, but if they are closely correlated, if NatGas stays above 3.242 it could continue to go higher.... (from my readings...)

Cool! Thanks!

But stay focused on the technicals, this looks like it's been a better short than long and MACD, RSI, Momentum still pointing down, you might want to wait for a bounce or bottoming indication first.... IMHO NatGas may bottom, but UNG if it's not closely correlated may take longer to bottom...

Cobra wrote:volume surge, biggest bar, so rebound. then we'll see. bears need show strength otherwise the bias is still up.

i think the trend already changed with spx 1294.5 as the local peak. 2 beer this time

soku wrote:

Cobra wrote:volume surge, biggest bar, so rebound. then we'll see. bears need show strength otherwise the bias is still up.

i think the trend already changed with spx 1294.5 as the local peak. 2 beer this time

You still own me your last beer. Pay the beer first before this bet.

ascending triangle?.. target 1315ish.. or break green channel? look for bottom channel?

/CL broke down decisively below the hourly 200MA now...maybe send the memo to equities?

Update

RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/rut_12.html

Longer term targets include AB=CD as well as a H&S.

Did anyone ask for red sauce?

Bullish crew is about to get comfie, heheheee evil laugh.

breakout the green line below then bears have hopes.

Iran delayed embargo. Crude selling off. So if crude leads the market, the top really is near.

Watch oil drop after the European anti-Iran embargo bluff…

fehro wrote:ascending triangle?.. target 1315ish.. or break green channel? look for bottom channel?

Let's see if 1315ish could be our last push up... sitting at next trend line resistance zone...

DBV, is pulling out because there is enough investors already LOL

jarbo456 wrote:/CL broke down decisively below the hourly 200MA now...maybe send the memo to equities?

yep, that looks bad.

Petsamo wrote:For the third time, I'm playing UNG. 150 shares only @ 5.78. So far, I'm 2 for 2.

I'm with you at 5.80

TraderGirl wrote:I don't know if I want to start drinkin' the Kool-aid just yet. 2009/2010 we had massive amounts of QE involved, once it ran out the markets puttered out....now it depends on earnings, and so far it's 50/50 lot's of warnings, and so far every time we have hit a new resistance zone, we pulled back at least once. I see a new resistance around 1311-1312, I guess we will see what happens when we get there.... just my thoughts....

Right now it's only a notion, but I think I can get the money to make it into a concept, and later turn it into an idea.

re Kool-aid (electric acid test or jim jones?). not disputing your resistance points--but would suggest two minor tweaks.

(1) the earnings are not the issue as much as forward guidance. we actually know earnings are not amazing due to the point you make re warnings. (intc great example--we know they miss stock is up hard) (2) QE can be seen in several ways. (a) the euro zone getting (on the surface at least) more into "the liquid thing" (except that there are zeros missing should be more like 5 trillion). (b) the idea held by far too many people (eg maybe factored) that they actually will do yet another formal QE.

i am only trying to make the case that the focus is not even real in the sense of something concrete like earnings--it's all about what will be done next to fix things--and the sense that only a short time ago it was the end of the world. if earnings did start to turn bad--you would then justify QEx. (sigh)

we have shifted from a market back say in the 1960s to 1990s based at least partly on actual business events--to a very synthetic relative sort of concept driven market. just as many people's lives have shifted indoors and onto screens away from lives on farms in construction (outside). the whole thing is very surreal.

finally all of us at the site are part of the problem or solution (the solution just leads to the next problem and the problem just leads to the next solution). all this technical trading as well as trend following simply amplifies the whole process.

generally all this synthetic liquidity eventually helps the world move everyone forward over the longer term. but shorter term the situation is so bogus it's insane to turn on the screens every day. buckminster fuller once said "you can make money or make sense" and there is something to that. the whole thing is like nano tech which everyone sees as a win win till you breath some nano items which cluster in the cortex and then it's closer to win-sort of lose. nano like liquidity is not going back in pandora's box--and we do need it to move forward and it's likely better in general for everyone eventually--but it's odd stuff also. and there will be these minor bugs to work out.

lets see what happens around your key area. good luck with your trades

TraderGirl wrote:

fehro wrote:ascending triangle?.. target 1315ish.. or break green channel? look for bottom channel?

Let's see if 1315ish could be our last push up... sitting at next trend line resistance zone...

Yes, multiple points of resistance... just sitting above..

waverider wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:/CL broke down decisively below the hourly 200MA now...maybe send the memo to equities?

yep, that looks bad.

and it keeps dropping. will it drop below 99...looking good.