Cobra's Market View

Petsamo wrote:If we end here, we should gap down tomorrow, unless overseas decides to rally

MrMiyagi wrote:

Petsamo wrote:If we end here, we should gap down tomorrow, unless overseas decides to rally

See, I should have gone with the instinct and bought TZA at 19.50$

TraderGirl wrote:potential support??

victorm wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:potential support??

Thanks TraderGirl, this chart brought me a good trade.

taggard wrote:

dreamtrader wrote:

dreamtrader wrote:Hi Cobra:

I am paid member of your site and usually just read. My question is which symbol do you use to see "Total Option Volume". Is it related to overall market (e.g. Nasdaq, S&P500, DOW) or for individual index e.g. S&P500.

Thanks,Swingtrader

Cobra, thanks.

i am an options guy and most of the time i ignore the intra day. if you are are interested in using daily stuff http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx

this stuff is posted by 3pm calif time most weekdays and is the most likely to be accurate. i had problems with stockcharts data in the past and even very expensive data is not that great (at least what i have seen). if you get interested in ratios understanding what the differences are between total index equity and the amusing cboe vol index options can provide clues. the best way to do this is to look at 3 or more years data and then check the relationships between say spy and the various indexes. these guys are most useful at extremes and i would say 80% of the time really don't show much. but at extremes they are highly useful. the biggest problem for beginners is the problem of understanding the context because nothing is absolute. options themselves can be used many different ways and open interest is not as simple as it used to be.

if i were just starting off and was actually interested in this stuff--i would learn basic options and then look at the last 2-3 years data on an excel spread sheet with all of the options end of day and prices in spy end of day on that sheet. and yeah that is a bit of an effort but options are interesting and complex creatures and deserve respect no matter how you are using the information.

if you are interested intra day you can get this stuff with a lag http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx by doing the math you can calculate equity and index and get a sense of what is going on. again context is everything--and extreme readings are generally more useful than the majority of data.

SWalsh wrote:Sitting on the edge of one chair with one eye on the HFT garbage and looking at a down formation that could be broken is not my idea of ending a day with less than 4 hours sleep and a nod-out now and then. Maybe this gives me insomnia.

This little pattern does not fit a C wave to make an A-B-C where we go up. But anything can happen. But my guess is we are seeing the reason why that nice hourly MACD divergence that is on the day of all the lows, has not caused a 50+ pt rally.

fehro wrote:pop in the morning followed by a sharp Friday afternoon sell off?.. or pop through 1365?... down seems more likely

no conclusion today, need see tomorrow. daily chart is another reversal bar, so still bulls are not over yet.