Cobra's Market View

snakehead wrote:

KeiZai wrote:Euro fractal chart "borrowed" from izz@ mate

So, you are predicting a (short-lived) 'snap-back' rally in the EUR/USD?

Yep I think short squeeze "rally" is possible towards 1.27 max 1.28

Is everyone enjoying the computers today? I don't think a 10 tick SPY trade occurred today without a HFT hitting it. Volume stinks. It will only get worse because when they trade it's in front of an order.

TraderGirl wrote:We had another p-bar on the SPY that meant nothing...wonder if this one will have any significance other than filling a gap...???

It may be a dud, but sometimes they take an extra day or two to play out.

I am going to keep it in mind because I may get a buy signal emerging on one of my setups perhaps by the close tomorrow or more likely Wednesday if things don't start to crater soon.

So, here I am looking for the bear flag of the last several days to resolve on the downside, while bullish tells are starting to appear...

I'd like to see a fake bear move

Dump to the close. Another day over with.

Well, guess that's it for today. I don't know tomorrow, but the intraday chart doesn't look bad for bulls (yes bulls). Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Whipsawed today badly!

Thanks Cobra.

fulkdaddy wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:squeeze XIV will SPY follow?

Al, what does XIV tell us and how do you use it for market timing?
Thank you,
David

daddy:
XIV is a long spy proxy-ish-oid
Kind of like the inverse of VIX but not quite
More like the inverse of VXX (except VXX is 2x)
All the vixies are based on VIX futures, not the $VIX volatility index

It’s spooky how often XIV leads SPY
And just when you think she will again…. she won’t….
(How do i use her? I assume she leads... and i follow... with confirmation from other indicators... she is ONLY one)
GL2U

RIMM news pretty bleak.

My take on today:

Now it all makes sense.

We will get a HUGE snap-back rally in the EUR/USD (mother of all short squeezes in the Euro.)
That will cause a pop in all risk assets. That will cause the SPY p-bar we saw today to go into effect. $DAX will make
a head-fake and close above 6400. This will be a bull trap.
Then Euro will hit the 1.30 resistance like a brick wall then plummet. Causing global markets to implode. $VIX to like 70-
ish. $DAX finally dumps below current H&S neckline.

ken_d17 wrote:RIMM news pretty bleak.

Did anyone think that RIMM would actually be a viable company again? I'm surprised they are still around.

MrMiyagi wrote:

ken_d17 wrote:RIMM news pretty bleak.

Did anyone think that RIMM would actually be a viable company again? I'm surprised they are still around.

Me too. I am amazed at how long it took to get here.

Anyone think the correlation to the NYSE will bring down the S&P500 tomorrow when the NYSE bounces off it's 200 MA....could not close above it today....I added to my shorts via sds this morning because with a correlation of 1.0 lately I bet they both go down tomorrow....any thoughts?

737controller wrote:Anyone think the correlation to the NYSE will bring down the S&P500 tomorrow when the NYSE bounces off it's 200 MA....could not close above it today....I added to my shorts via sds this morning because with a correlation of 1.0 lately I bet they both go down tomorrow....any thoughts?

Everything dependent on EUR/USD.

If there is a snap-back rally, watch out. Major short squeeze/bull trap. Use any strenght to get out of long equity positions.

However, if EURO crumbles here (doesn't seem likely as most trading appears drug- and hopium- and rumour- induced), that will take DAX down decisively below H&S neckline causing global sell-off.

Keep an eye on this index: watch out for short squeeze:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURUSD%3DX&ql=0

Anyone know why USO is very weak relative to SPY ?

Larry Kudlow said that the US has 200 years worth of technically recoverable oil. Plus, there's Canada. We don't need Saudi Arabia. What's standing in the way of a serious bear market in oil is Obama and his environmentalist leftists.

Al_Dente wrote:
It’s spooky how often XIV leads SPY

You don't get it yet? I thought everyone was paying attention. Split seconds before HFTs hit stocks they hit the volatility instruments. They miss no opportunity to institutionally rape the public. So if they are going to run it up they hit VXX first, but you'll never react quick enough to be in on it and if anything, they'll turn it the other way against those who were 2-5 seconds late and tried to join them.

The market is an accounting venture designed to remove capital by the banks who are privileged enough to contribute many millions of dollar to our new Caesar in return for favorable odds.

What enlightened voters we had in 2008....did the economy a real service....nice job...and speaking of jobs, when the trader tax hits, where's everyone working next.

Daily Elders turning Green overall. Germany, French, AND Brits don't care about Spain and Italy. XLP, XLY,HD, F and CHK seem to be strong. It looks like F is doing well after a long beating. Oh yah, FB still looking for bottom because they lost their ss.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-winds-d ... 09517.html Next job report may not be so good