Cobra's Market View

Al_Dente wrote:

Petsamo wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:THIS IS NOT POLITICAL
This is just what paul ryan owns in his portfolio
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/08/13/pa ... Markets%29

His stock picks are what the ordinary Joe Trader would pick, much better than the Solyndra, solar companies, Government Motors that Obama is trying to shove at the general public. They're no where near the 1000% returns that Bill Clinton's wife are getting.

THAT was political
There are democrats and republicans on board
I try not to offend 50% of the board
NOBODY cares about my own personal political opinions

CNN are a bunch of leftists. The article IS political.

This market breadth chart from Stocktiming also indicates that BULL still in control of the game. It is just a sentiment chart, which I don't treat it as a trading signal.

How accurate is that spreadsheet? Cuz I have a spreadsheet that never calls for anything, and so far it's 100% never wrong. But it's kind of annoying.

Petsamo wrote:My spreadsheet's calling for a gap down. It would be better for the bears if we finished lower, though

Cobra wrote:here comes "n" leg up. 16 min to close. bears' only hope is it's to close green again.

would you please explain this when you have time? why bears want it close green today?

Thanks Jim
Why don’t u post on board?

SPY daily looks just like the DAX daily, a bull flag

OverUnder wrote:How accurate is that spreadsheet? Cuz I have a spreadsheet that never calls for anything, and so far it's 100% never wrong. But it's kind of annoying.

Petsamo wrote:My spreadsheet's calling for a gap down. It would be better for the bears if we finished lower, though

It's as (un)reliable as any technical indicator.

well, that 's if for today. for the 4th time, a gap down was bought, failed to close in green though, so this time bears did make some progress by closing a little bit in red. now the question is: will the market gap down again the 5th time? thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

happychen wrote:

Cobra wrote:here comes "n" leg up. 16 min to close. bears' only hope is it's to close green again.

would you please explain this when you have time? why bears want it close green today?

SPX up 7 days in a row. red today then means no statistics benefit for bears anymore.

Cobra wrote:well, that 's if for today. for the 4th time, a gap down was bought, failed to close in green though, so this time bears did make some progress by closing a little bit in red. now the question is: will the market gap down again the 5th time? thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

maybe we'll finally gap UP, and thus end the rally!

The closing volume seems really light today, which is saying something after last week's light volumes.

Cobra wrote:

happychen wrote:

Cobra wrote:here comes "n" leg up. 16 min to close. bears' only hope is it's to close green again.

would you please explain this when you have time? why bears want it close green today?

SPX up 7 days in a row. red today then means no statistics benefit for bears anymore.

Im afraid of this market, and im afraid of my own feelings of being afraid.

"Theres nothing to fear but fear itself" wiston churchill

Im mentally wasted with this small trade range.

Sometimes, mr market is mean to me.

Petsamo wrote:SPY daily looks just like the DAX daily, a bull flag

EWG says bull or bear flag..take your pick...

looks like an hanging man
reversal bar also on gold
copper is getting closer day after day to the main dinamic support which has been tested a few days ago
95 new highs on nyse, the lowest level since the end of june, only 38 new highs on nasdaq and 36 new lows

these last 4 days are signaling indecision

Another day coiling in the rectangle.
Light volumes favor the bulls, but they have been hesitant to go to new highs.
It suggests that the only real demand at higher prices would come from squeezed shorts.
Likewise bears have been hesitant to press until there is a clear breakdown...gun shy from squeeze after squeeze.
Without some news to trigger trading, the professionals will price this market where they want.
Not a great trading environment, but 57Chevy's observation on the ADX suggests that we'll get a trending market in the not too distant future.

I don't know how one can be bearish in this environment. I am still bullish to 1420, but I am surprised getting last 15 points on the S&P has been this much of a struggle. It makes me second guess my stance. Maybe we just need to fill the wagon with more bulls before Mr. Market drives the wagon into the wall at full speed.

shaca wrote:looks like an hanging man
reversal bar also on gold
copper is getting closer day after day to the main dinamic support which has been tested a few days ago
95 new highs on nyse, the lowest level since the end of june, only 38 new highs on nasdaq and 36 new lows

these last 4 days are signaling indecision

McClellan Oscillator also deteriorated (was negative most of the day). So, while price action closed almost flat and within the trading range of the last several days, there was some decay under the surface.

usctrojan99 wrote:I don't know how one can be bear in this environment. Maybe we just need to fill the wagon with bulls before Mr. Market drive the wagon into the wall at full speed.

I thought we would get more of a pullback into the 16th...afterwards Im looking for a surge into 23/24th of August, but I would beware afterwards.....we may get a lot of volatility soon....

TraderGirl wrote:

usctrojan99 wrote:I don't know how one can be bear in this environment. Maybe we just need to fill the wagon with bulls before Mr. Market drive the wagon into the wall at full speed.

I thought we would get more of a pullback into the 16th...afterwards Im looking for a surge into 23/24th of August, but I would beware afterwards.....we may get a lot of volatility soon....

Yeah, I am thinking we'll have the wagon full of bulls by month-end/Labor Day. Basically around the time of that Jackson Hole Conference. But it is idle speculation for me at the moment not a basis for trade.

Mr. BachNut wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

usctrojan99 wrote:I don't know how one can be bear in this environment. Maybe we just need to fill the wagon with bulls before Mr. Market drive the wagon into the wall at full speed.

I thought we would get more of a pullback into the 16th...afterwards Im looking for a surge into 23/24th of August, but I would beware afterwards.....we may get a lot of volatility soon....

Yeah, I am thinking we'll have the wagon full of bulls by month-end/Labor Day. Basically around the time of that Jackson Hole Conference. But it is idle speculation for me at the moment not a basis for trade.

We'll see what the pullback at the end of the month looks like...September looks like a lot of volatility...