Cobra's Market View

VIX 15m... on support... will it hold.... and bounce?

111% undervalued EFT/Index calls/puts and Undervalued Equity calls with c/p 131% suggest rally here

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Interesting to hear loud mouths on TV now jumping onto the bear side
and telling us why the market fell and will continue down

Good example of recency effect

SPX 5m... possible triangle/bear flag

Heck wrote:111% undervalued EFT/Index calls/puts and Undervalued Equity calls with c/p 131% suggest rally here

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Interesting to hear loud mouths on TV now jumping onto the bear side
and telling us why the market fell and will continue down

Good example of recency effect

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/0 ... ections-2/

From our old freind Springheel Jack.http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2014 ... atterns%29

Put in perspective, it appears to be a “normal” correction, although quicker and steeper than the ones last year.
Last year IN A BULL YEAR we had these Fibonacci retracements:
April retraced 50% fib
June retraced 75+%
August retraced 61.8%
October retraced 75+%
By comparison, yesterday we broke the 50% retracement level, and are now backtesting it.

cannot fulfill 100% mm, rebound is weak.

SPY intraday = sell

/ES resistance at 5 dma, a trade < 1740 dead cat bounce is over.

my guess. always give bulls more credit so one more push up, then pullback.

uempel wrote:Factory orders at 10:00 a.m.

SPX98.png

E Gads only 30 more points to go,how long is that P bar good for???

Heck wrote:111% undervalued EFT/Index calls/puts and Undervalued Equity calls with c/p 131% suggest rally here

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Interesting to hear loud mouths on TV now jumping onto the bear side
and telling us why the market fell and will continue down

Good example of recency effect

Cash is an option with all the greeks pretty much known, and is outperforming the S@P this year. On a side note, I will never go back to having MSM on while I trade. More than enough BS down at the corral.

BullBear52x wrote:SPY intraday = sell

/ES resistance at 5 dma, a trade < 1740 dead cat bounce is over.

Got a PB a bit ago dn to 174.10 but lets see.

uempel wrote:Factory orders at 10:00 a.m.

"U.S. factory orders fall -1.5% in December"
it was expected to fall -1.7%, so that's better than consensus forecast

SPX 5m... a possible invs H&S

KENA wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:SPY intraday = sell

/ES resistance at 5 dma, a trade < 1740 dead cat bounce is over.

Got a PB a bit ago dn to 174.10 but lets see.

bulls and bears both got their Pbar.

SPY in bear environment.

for my daytrading friends.. 3 min chart has 1749.25 and 1753.00 as targets.. and from famed analyst frank ochoa (as it mirrors my views)

koolblue wrote:for my daytrading friends.. 3 min chart has 1749.25 and 1753.00 as targets.. and from famed analyst frank ochoa (as it mirrors my views)

Neutral. Got stopped out of some longs on the December low break but re-loaded.
Tightened stops on shorts.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is down.

A lot changed yesterday. Big technical damage was done. VIX played above 19 in a sustained way.
I believe we saw sell stops run, margin calls executed and even long only funds starting to cash up.
My trend model won't be turning for awhile.
I was particularly impressed by the weakness of late last week's rallies. Not even a 1st Fib recovery from oversold.

As far as I know, there is no crisis. No bank has failed. No cannons (that matter) are firing. The economy is limpy but it has been for awhile.
So, I figure this is the bull trimming some excess fat (not muscle or bone). Unfortunately there is a fair bit of fat.
There is also a change of affairs in the currency markets.

I have not executed well on this. My signals have been good, but I have held some trapped longs since I dishonored a stop last week. My bad.
It has kept me neutral rather than short. Call me a scaredy bear...
I did catch some spread yesterday, but I confess reloading my long to neutral was stubborn. I just don't want to be heavy short after the move we have had.
That said, the technical signs are developing for a bounce in coming days. Today's and tomorrow's action is important.
I am anticipating getting stopped out of my shorts eventually.
Then I'll just have to see what happens to the longs (Gulp!), but they'll be headed for the exit too.