Cobra's Market View

SPX 60m. fwiw. minor divergence.. unless we break up to new highs... and as always mind the gaps!

SPX appears to be at an interesting junction here, pressed between the 1/23 gap down and the 9 day minor up trend. FX appears favorable to stocks, but definitely short term overbought. I'm calling the Positive Price Reversal to 1844 on the 60min RSI as confirmed (noted on 2/14), even though we're a point shy (so far) that's good enough for guvment work. Expecting a move below the 60min 20ma for a few hours, which would probably be bought, and then re-assess. My 2 cents, 'morning all.

FWIW
If SPY closes up today, that would be the 9th consecutive close up. According to Retracement Levels over at the Slope,
there were only 14 such cases since the early years of last century.

Index 5m all .. TRAN very weak this AM losing the 20d / 50d SMA

FI, end of bitcoinmania !

SPX 60m.

2nd test of day high, 50% chances of reversal, key time, wait.

I look at 1/CPCE (turns put call ratio into call put ratio), to create a positive correlation with SPX, just so the divergences are interpreted normally. That said, I'm noting a large negative divergence with the January high, which I would interpret as bearish for stocks intermediate term (not to say that we are near an intermediate term high, short term, prices can take a some time to react to things like this.) What do others make of this divergence?

A few weeks back on the weekend, I posted that the MSM underreported big sotry was China's decision it was no longer in its interest to increase its holdings of \usa currency/debt.

from zerohedge
Chinese Treasury holdings plunged by the most in two years, after China offloaded some $48 billion in paper, bringing its total to only $1268.9 billion, down from $1316.7 billion, and back to a level last seen in March 2013!



This was the second largest dump by China in history with the sole exception of December 2011.



That this happened at a time when Chinese FX reserves soared to all time highs, and when China had gobs of spare cash lying around and not investing in US paper should be quite troubling to anyone who follows the nuanced game theory between the US and its largest external creditor, and the signals China sends to the world when it comes to its confidence in the US.

Yet what was truly surprising is that despite the plunge in Chinese holdings, and Japanese holdings which also dropped by $4 billion in December, is that total foreign holdings of US Treasurys increased in December, from $5716.9 billion to 5794.9 billion.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-1 ... mes-rescue

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32824/ ... th-the-dow

pullback too slow, so might be another push up.

rhight wrote:I look at 1/CPCE (turns put call ratio into call put ratio), to create a positive correlation with SPX, just so the divergences are interpreted normally. That said, I'm noting a large negative divergence with the January high, which I would interpret as bearish for stocks intermediate term (not to say that we are near an intermediate term high, short term, prices can take a some time to react to things like this.) What do others make of this divergence?

Could u post a chart showing what u mean, thx
Do you mean this? (equity call buying is not keeping up with SPY?)

Looks like Europeans cannot access our live update forum today. Something wrong with ISP.

still up biased.

Cobra wrote:still up biased.

Isn't that a nice IHS heading to 1849?

now must be up and up and up, failure would be bad for bulls (intra-day only bad for bulls of course).

If anyone missed it there were some great posts on the weekend update. Just finished reading through everything myself.

I've been reading this forum for a few years and while constantly evolving the current mix of participants show a great variety of ideas and approaches.

I have learned much and expect that to continue.

Thanks everybody.

Vaamsy wrote:

Cobra wrote:still up biased.

Isn't that a nice IHS heading to 1849?

IHS must have a downtrend prior to the pattern, we don't have the downtrend, so might not be IHS.

don't remember who posted abt ARIA a few days ago, any view on it with earnings on 24th? Thanks