02/28/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

with bear goggles on SPX 60m.. right shoulder is in....

[daytradingES]

Foreign banks squeezed by Fed may reduce U.S footprint

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Analysts say that other foreign banks may follow in the footsteps of Deutsche Bank AG in reducing its U.S. footprint due to new rules by the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank is expected to reduce its $400 billion balance sheet in the U.S. by $100 billion and reassign operations to its other offices in Europe and Asia, according to a report initially in the Financial Times that the company confirmed

“The consequences of increased regulation on both sides of the Atlantic is that banks like Deutsche Bank will say we cannot live in the new environment,” said Dick Bove, analyst at Rafferty Capital.

According to new rules announced by the Federal Reserve, large foreign banks with a significant U.S. presence will be required to form an intermediate holding company that will face the same risk-assessments and capital standards as U.S. banks.

........
A new report by SNL Financial states that 17 foreign banks would be impacted by the new thresholds under the new Fed regulations, including British banks HSBC Holdings Plc. , Barclays PLC , French banks BNP Paribas SA , Societe Generale and Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. , based on asset data as of Sept. 30, 2013.

...
“Anytime you start seeing large institution withdrawing, that is not good news,” said Holtz-Eakin.

Arguably, the Fed’s goal is to increase resiliency of the U.S. financial system, which includes protecting the resiliency of large foreign banks.

The new regulations have been implemented in the U.S. since the financial crisis to protect the markets from another economic downturn.

On a positive note, the final rule by the Fed raises the threshold from $10 billion to $50 billion for requiring a foreign bank to form a holding company and extends the compliance date to July 1, 2016, a year later than originally proposed.

http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/mar ... S-4-56124/
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another note on the wall?

[Al_Dente]

I think this pop is also related to FX, which I can't try to understand, someone please explain

Same here, best I can do is watch the price reaction
Eg: what does this mean? Well FXI pulled way back so it means neg?
“The Chinese yuan takes its largest drop since 2005. The yuan fell …to a 10-month low … in Shanghai. "FX sales data released this week point to continued strong capital inflows in January, and there are no signs of large capital outflows or sharp deterioration in fundamentals in recent weeks"…

[uempel]

Checking the very long term picture ...

[gappy]

I am my own best contrarian indicator, as soon as I say something, the opposite happens
That said, here is a weekly trend slope that the defines the rising resistance of the channel from the March 2009 low, coming in at 1870 (this week, 3.5 points higher next week), who thought we would reach it? (The weeks are dated from Mondays)

SPX 02-24-14 Weekly M.png

Also, an update to my price projection chart, a statistical creation, and given that there is only a sample of 6 for the Average gain (pivots circled) there is an uncalculated % uncertainty not defined. That said the Average projected forward = 1877. Time wise, we are in the window of the last 6 advances, but that window extends to 3/25. Turns, of course, can happen at any time.
I don't think the sky is the limit, but we are getting close, remember POMO will again be notched down in March (I think )
I think this pop is also related to FX, which I can't try to understand, someone please explain

SPX 02-28-14 Price Projections.png

FX cahoots is Japan + US. Not sure the gun caliber but if overnight Japan bad economic data doesn't weaken the Yen, well there is a reason that shows up in our trade at open. Something to poke at.

[uempel]

I think this pop is also related to FX, which I can't try to understand, someone please explain

Same here, best I can do is watch the price reaction
Eg: what does this mean? Well FXI pulled way back so it means neg?
“The Chinese yuan takes its largest drop since 2005. The yuan fell …to a 10-month low … in Shanghai. "FX sales data released this week point to continued strong capital inflows in January, and there are no signs of large capital outflows or sharp deterioration in fundamentals in recent weeks"…

US companies selling abroad make more $$$ when the exchange rate of the $ is weak ..

[Cobra]

vol surge, ema20, so might see rebound here first.

[Al_Dente]

Foreign banks squeezed by Fed may reduce U.S footprint........On a positive note, the final rule by the Fed raises the threshold from $10 billion to $50 billion for requiring a foreign bank to form a holding company and extends the compliance date to July 1, 2016, a year later than originally proposed.http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/mar ... S-4-56124/

Good one, thanks
Trying to figure out if the FED is just yapping or if the new rule has been implemented.
At the end of story is this:
“The new regulations have been implemented in the U.S. since the financial crisis to protect the markets from another economic downturn.
[you caught this one:] On a positive note, the final rule by the Fed raises the threshold from $10 billion to $50 billion for requiring a foreign bank to form a holding company and extends the compliance date to July 1, 2016, a year later than originally proposed.

I give up…… we’re screwed….. until the FED revises the revisions again……

[fehro]

Checking the very long term picture ...

The attachment SPX8.png is no longer available

talking long termish... SPX daily

[fehro]

SPX monthly.. quite the monthly candle.....

[Al_Dente]

US companies selling abroad make more $$$ when the exchange rate of the $ is weak ..

Thx boss u make it so simple
Please elaborate for the benefit of newbies (cough)

[uempel]

Reminder, 30 min to go:

[TraderGirl]

I have a potential ending wave count and a time signal off the "T" coming up soon...not sure if it will have an effect..we'll see...

[Nrsimha]

Checking the very long term picture ...

SPX8.png

To cheer yourself up, I would suggest looking at charts for $SPX:$GOLD or SPY:GLD.
Especially look at the weekly candles with Aroon period = 15.

[uempel]

At the mom it look like the move will be to the downside. Somebody might have better info in regard to internals, but my view is that next move is downish...

[uempel]

I have a potential ending wave count and a time signal off the "T" coming up soon...not sure if it will have an effect..we'll see...

Yeah

[uempel]

Cheer myself up I don't understand what you mean.

Checking the very long term picture ...

SPX8.png

To cheer yourself up, I would suggest looking at charts for $SPX:$GOLD or SPY:GLD.
Especially look at the weekly candles with Aroon period = 15.

[silicon_beaver]

the 看顶 indicator is over 4.11. almost 2nd highest in last three years. Is that due to OE week?

[Cobra]

this bull may still have legs.

[Out of Bounds]

the 看顶 indicator is over 4.11. almost 2nd highest in last three years. Is that due to OE week?

Google fails me.