04/01/2014 Live Update

[flumanchu]

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Based on POMO - this is a false breakout. We'll see...

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[fehro]

SPX daily.. as mentioned yesterday.. possible retest of red channel on the daily.. another possible sign of resistance.. VIX tho is very weak.. so pop above the triple top looks imminent

[uempel]

BPs look strong intraday, but I cannot assess importance of this phenomenon Some kind of rescue operation by the bulls or is it genuine strength?

[uempel]

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Based on POMO - this is a false breakout. We'll see...

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flumanchu, can you pls explain Based on very different indications I'm a sceptic too ...

[Cobra]

probably selling isn't over.

[flumanchu]

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

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[Me XMan]

I should sell my positions now huh?

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

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[Me XMan]

Bears just have to see the white of the eye before shorting...

SNOG turned green today - decisively. Sold shorts - lost money

[Mr. BachNut]

I have tentatively marked March 13 as the low for this NYMO cycle.

Emphasis on "tentative" as today's higher high is a squeaker and it is intraday.
Things could be quite different by the close.
Also note price is still in the trading range.
I want a higher high close NYMO and an index close above the range top to confirm the low.

It is perhaps useful to consider the November 2013 NYMO as a possible analog.
It never reached oversold on the downside; it chopped around, and made a marginal high/top at month-end. A modest decline followed.
If we confirm a NYMO low I will entertain a possible trip to the upper Keltner band at 1914 as bull potential for a NYMO up cycle, but be alert to
a scenario like last November/December. My preference would be the former.

[flumanchu]

I should sell my positions now huh?

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

.

I sold yesterday... and POMO would say 'yes'.

But, POMO's not perfect.

We'll see...

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[q2model]

I should sell my positions now huh?

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

.

I sold yesterday... and POMO would say 'yes'.

But, POMO's not perfect.

We'll see...

.

Can you explain what POMO is and how it is used?
Thanks

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. mind the lower open gaps... and red trend lines

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY BB work shows price approached the upper band, got rejected again and is heading back down.

Gold still falling but getting close to the buy zone now.

[victorm]

I should sell my positions now huh?

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

.

I sold yesterday... and POMO would say 'yes'.

But, POMO's not perfect.

We'll see...

.

Can you explain what POMO is and how it is used?
Thanks

Why don't you Google it instead? Things you should know.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. possible messy little H&S..interday

[q2model]

I should sell my positions now huh?

Based on POMO, I see the market falling until the middle of next week.

Appr. 1852 this Friday, 1820 by middle of next week.

Note: POMO is not a sure thing. I've seen instances where an injection of funds came from somewhere to 'save' the market. Prime example was Yellen's press conference in Feb. It looked like No POMO left and yet the market took off - the invisible hand. POMO projections were completely inaccurate then. However, I think on 2/5 the market was at a crossroads and there was an intervention - it just wasn't time to let the market fall yet. Too early in the year. Also, a market drop would not have been good for credibility for Yellen right after her press conference. We're getting closer to the timeframe where the Fed will allow a market drop. Not a crash, but a pretty good drop - for summertime. They don't mind a drop as long as they are in control. They need these controlled drops to bring in more bears - makes it easier to keep it afloat.

.

I sold yesterday... and POMO would say 'yes'.

But, POMO's not perfect.

We'll see...

.

Can you explain what POMO is and how it is used?
Thanks

Why don't you Google it instead? Things you should know.

Okay, it is a tool that Fed on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. How is it used to predict the market direction?
Thanks,

[uempel]

Bears just have to see the white of the eye before shorting...

SNOG turned green today - decisively. Sold shorts - lost money

"Selling shorts" is betting to the upside, "buying shorts" is betting to the downside ....

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

back test pullback low, key time. I'm neutral.

[MrMiyagi]