Cobra's Market View

cletus wrote:IYR and XLF reversing quite hard here. Be careful.

right, today'll be interesting.

Bear's only hope is that there is pomo this Thursday and Friday. Cobra, Is there any stop criteria on your new impulse model ?

Cobra wrote:VIX new low, welcome to the new era.

cletus wrote:

Cobra wrote:VIX new low, welcome to the new era.

One interesting thing on VIX is that it formed a kind of head and shoulders pattern the last few weeks and now it has broken down. Clearly the target can't be met, it measures 15 pts or more which would make VIX negative LOL. But, one thing about h&s is that sometimes when they break down it turns out to be a headfake and the instrument reverses from there, just like the S&P formed a little head and shoulders the last few weeks, it broke and turned out to be a headfake. However, the alignment is bullish for now, no question.

Today is Options Expiration for the VIX. I think there me some market dynamics around that and that we should see truer VIX figures after today.

Cobra wrote:

cletus wrote:IYR and XLF reversing quite hard here. Be careful.

right, today'll be interesting.

Just from casual observence, It seems the s&p always touches the high from the premarket futures sometime during regular market hours no?

Tech land and fnancial is where money can be made daytrade. the squeeze is max out here, major indexes will stay flat me think wants the action check out individual stocks.

Jungle/99er,

FWIW, I do agree with 99er on the bearish outcome...eventually but the key is to follow the trend or follow people with no bias. An example is Tony Caldero from EW and he is super bullish, but he was bearish on the market until Feb. of 2010...and it basically went from 667 on the S&P to over 1100. So following his advice now is great but it wasn't from March 2009 to Feb. of 2010.

Anyway the markets go through 18-22 year periods of bull and bear...and each bear market starts with an extreme top (1907 to 1929) then we had a huge decline into 1932, followed by a rally (1937), then another big decline (1942). The market did the same thing from 1962 to 1974, then another bottom in the early 80's. We have had the top in 2000, and now 2 big declines (2002 and 2009)...the key is if we will have another one, which I think we will. But we can hit new highs above the October 2007 highs before it starts going down again.

So just trade what is in front of you. Patterns repeat, maybe in different forms, but they repeat. Uempel and I both agreed yesterday near the close on a potential big up day today (I was just trying to find his reasoning)...mine was because of the 3 day pattern surrounding the lows on 11/27/09 and 12/17/09. After the big drop (on 11/27 and 12/17) after a prior up day, the next day was up, and then the following day gapped up huge...just like today.

Anyway, good luck everyone.

"Well, I simply draw what I see. It's a bear market after all. "

Oh, really? When was the market bearish, years ago maybe?

ddd wrote:"Well, I simply draw what I see. It's a bear market after all. "

Oh, really? Since when the market has been bearish, years ago maybe?

in my opinion,

it's a bullish market with headline bears.

starix wrote:Bear's only hope is that there is pomo this Thursday and Friday. Cobra, Is there any stop criteria on your new impulse model ?

Cobra wrote:VIX new low, welcome to the new era.

uses stop loss only and there's a time stop about 8 trading days if no profits.

Cobra wrote:

starix wrote:Bear's only hope is that there is pomo this Thursday and Friday. Cobra, Is there any stop criteria on your new impulse model ?

Cobra wrote:VIX new low, welcome to the new era.

uses stop loss only and there's a time stop about 8 trading days if no profits.

my time stop is from 1minute to 10 minutes

Cobra,

How did you come up with 8 days...very, very good IMO. Like today, if we aren't higher 4 days from now it is bad news for the markets.

Looking like a bullish trend day today. Now IYR and XLF catching a bid, although I find it hard to believe they won't go down and fill some of the many gaps they gapped over today on SPY. LOL

This is good for bulls. IYR triangle breakout? If so, huge upside target. This would put the S&P up huge from here. Pretty good volume buying the past few weeks supports it, but let's see if the breakout holds.

SPX
Okay, the bulls have had their fun.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/spx_20.html
Now it's the bears' turn.

FJoe: "So just trade what is in front of you."

Couldn't have said it better. Thanks.

Bull or Bear. long-term or short-term...other people's views don't matter.

Fairly large inverse head and shoulders forming since February top. Bull food above SPY 134.

Mr. BachNut wrote:Fairly large inverse head and shoulders forming since February top. Bull food above SPY 134.

This market needs to take out 134 on SPY. Fun to get excited, but until that happens we are still Range Bound since February, let's not forget that.

Bears have been slapped silly the past 2 years and still so many bearish. When the rest of the bears here capitulate it may be time for a bearish stance?

Gold
New high.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold_20.html
Going higher still.

If SPX breaking over 1340 then more bears will run for the woods.

stocksage wrote:Bears have been slapped silly the past 2 years and still so many bearish. When the rest of the bears here capitulate it may be time for a bearish stance?