Cobra's Market View

Cobra wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:GM all. cobra, what is your lower indicator on the monthly chart? it went down below 1 recently and looking at history markets usually move sideways at best for months after such a move, although at times they move higher creating a negative divergence on the indicator followed by a notable decline.

%B

so basically it has the same reasoning as when the vix gets out of its bollinger bands and then back in, right?

ES and ZB
Possible channels...up and down.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/es-zb_06.html

so far, cobra's rule on nfp day works. open up and tend to go lower.

read the nfp:
is it a good report? + 244k jobs is very good, but what the composition? 175K birth / death adjustment which means 175k less people participating in the labor force, and 63k hiring by mcdonald's.
thank god. long live mcd. can they hire 63k every quarter?
excluding these 2 items, the real normalized job addition is, .... 7k.

long mcd

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nfp-ex ... h-death-7k

ocassional observer wrote:

Cobra wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:GM all. cobra, what is your lower indicator on the monthly chart? it went down below 1 recently and looking at history markets usually move sideways at best for months after such a move, although at times they move higher creating a negative divergence on the indicator followed by a notable decline.

%B

so basically it has the same reasoning as when the vix gets out of its bollinger bands and then back in, right?

No. VIX setup is for VIX only.

GM all,
Quite happy to have closed my short position this morning on Eurostoxx and went long thanks to your commentaries (market outlook).
Once again, thanx for your work cobra.

SPY 134.75 is the Key number I'll stick to today. If trades below, short on, If we trades above for the rest of the day I may close out the rest of all my short etf going into the weekend.

SRS is in green, a day like today....this is fisheeeeeiiiii, BUT to trade above 135, a chance of sideways to high is now a high probability.

update here is my intraday support and resistance.

es is struggling around 1344 vwap. i think it will find support around 1335-1337 area then pick direction.

the first 60 min bar doesn't look good, let's see how the current bar closes.

Need to see some movement on the VIX if shorts going to have a shot today....so far nada.

Cobra wrote:the first 60 min bar doesn't look good, let's see how the current bar closes.

Don't quite understand you - that bar must look like that with all that short covering at the opening.

And someting else: why don't you show the settings of the indicators you apply on your stockcharts? Very difficult for me to "read your chart* if you don't show the settings. I can't "weigh" the evidence as I might use different settings.

Nothing else to complain...

Last but not least - thanks for everything - I really enjoy your forum.

fade the ticks works this time, yesterday half hour before close tick down -1324.

this is another sign of to be sideways action in the coming week, in sideways market fade the tick trade is very profitable.

yoku wrote:so far, cobra's rule on nfp day works. open up and tend to go lower.

read the nfp:
is it a good report? + 244k jobs is very good, but what the composition? 175K birth / death adjustment which means 175k less people participating in the labor force, and 63k hiring by mcdonald's.
thank god. long live mcd. can they hire 63k every quarter?
excluding these 2 items, the real normalized job addition is, .... 7k.

long mcd

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nfp-ex ... h-death-7k

I can sort of understand why there is a need for a death adjustment since working ager can die prematurely. But what a hack is the job adjustment for birth. Do they count the "under aged" (including one month old maybe) in the stat?

YM
Diamond Top?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/ym.html

Birth Death adjustments are made by the BLS to account for the B/D of small businesses, not people.

SPX conforms to Fibonacci's will:

ddd wrote: I can sort of understand why there is a need for a death adjustment since working ager can die prematurely. But what a hack is the job adjustment for birth. Do they count the "under aged" (including one month old maybe) in the stat?

bd is an adjustment to the total of labor force, or the base for the unemployment rate.
so people retired need to be subtracted and new graduates need to be added. arguably people not actively searching for job will be subtracted as well.
in short it is a legitimate adjustment but often got abused. and the definition of "actively searching" is changing all the time.
check the full sets of data of the change in unemployment this year, you will see pretty much the drop in base is the major force of the improvement.

sry it took me a little too long to reply.
short at 1347.75. go bear go

Qs above 59 I am a buyer

Uncle Benny jumped out today.

MOBI is really hot today.It still has a long ways to go after pulling back to the lower side of the channel.

while i'm not able to predict anything ....
i have seen ES moves of only 4 points for the whole day
after a huge gap up as we've had this morning...