Cobra's Market View

VIX gappy.. intra day 1m.. sharp drop.. hourly SPX candle trying to hammer of support.. still minor bear flag 5m..

As USO keeps busting to new HODs, IYT is (thus far) not being affected, as it too hovers near daily highs.

This charts shows sideways to up is at hand, need a little more support form $BPSPX from here.waverider special on BPSPX is not so convincing just yet.

KRE, market darling, currently leading financials to the downside, >1% loss on the day.

Complacency level is high at yesterday's closed, I doubt that the majority will be right, very over bought market right now.

heaven forbid.. I'm tempted again... may wait till end of day.. short AAPL .. small positon

SPX .. dabble short here again..

BullBear52x wrote:Complacency level is high at yesterday's closed, I doubt that the majority will be right, very over bought market right now.

Agree and looks like retail is back to 'greed' mode coming into todays session: IBD has been blowing it for close to 2 years now and their turns have been consistently in the wrong direction.

Two ISE Indices = MARKET DOWN

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

IWM, rs leader on the day, holding well above daily VWAP, while spy and qqq are below. KRE continues to push its LOD.

NYSE up/down volume still about 50/50 on the day.

Mixed signals typical of an Opex Friday AM.

Daniel wrote:Since yesterday's gap and go, SPY 15min timeframe there has been no 15min bar that has closed below the (upslope) 20period MA.

Almost did earlier this AM but did not.

11:30 bar was the first.

Daniel wrote:IWM, rs leader on the day, holding well above daily VWAP, while spy and qqq are below. KRE continues to push its LOD.

NYSE up/down volume still about 50/50 on the day.

Mixed signals typical of an Opex Friday AM.

IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&S

I have marked 5/06/15 as the low for the recent NYMO down cycle and now have us in an up cycle.
NYMO has satisfied criteria of making higher highs and higher lows and also has a close above the zero line.
Potential targets for the up cycle are the upper Keltner band (SPX 2169 at the moment) or the upper wedge line (about 2159).

There is also an ascending triangle marked that would have a target of about 2,200.
While yesterday closed above the neckline of the pattern, I would not call the pattern definitively completed at this point.
There are OPEX affects in play, and the break was by ticks, not a solid break. Yet.

I am flat at the moment. I have had no long setups trigger at this point.
I was short the R2K earlier in the week, but the recent rally gutted profits down to one flat screen TV equivalent.
Better than a loss, but I already have a flat screen TV.
My interest for longer time frame trades though, does shift from short to long now.
However, as the market has been choppy and flaky, I'll be flexible and hopefully nimble.

Just because the NYMO cycle is up doesn't mean price won't go down.
I would not rule out a trip down to the middle keltner or even one of the rising bottoms trend lines.
It is also plausible to make a lower May price low (I don't think so but what do I know) with a positive NYMO divergence.
I note this (and can be accused of double talking) because I have a bunch of indicators that still look soft.

However, the NYMO is in the bull camp for now.
Perhaps it is a fake, but if the cycle lasts awhile, there are some interesting possible upside targets.
I'll be looking for a breakout or better yet a stiff downdraft to stalk an entry.

From the Open, iwm, spy both down a little.

QQQ down exactly twice as much.

Of concern to bulls, since Tech has been leading this recent multiday upsurge.

ISEE spike long not seen

fehro wrote:IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&S

Impeccable analysis, as always, and normally I would join you as soon as IWM began to discernably shed its intraday relative strength.

But I'm always reluctant to initiate positions intraday on Opex Fri. Too many random movements from institutional manipulations. (Perhaps if still showing weakness at the close, when all settlements and reverberations and rebalancings are done...)

Daniel wrote:

fehro wrote:IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&S

Impeccable analysis, as always, and normally I would join you as soon as IWM began to discernably shed its intraday relative strength.

But I'm always reluctant to initiate positions intraday on Opex Fri. Too many random movements from institutional manipulations. (Perhaps if still showing weakness at the close, when all settlements and reverberations and rebalancings are done...)

Thanks, and I totally understand.. the proper entry is on a break of the neckline, or the wedge for early entry. My concerns are, "IF" this is the "TOP".. we have potential complex wave 2's on all indexes near the highs.. but not technically making new highs.. so...wave 2... if we do break down "could" be on gap and a sharp drop. So probably a little early on my entry. If any index makes a new high.. then scratch all the above. I'm thinking/ leaning towards the aggressive side due to the weakness in TRAN. In 2007.. TRAN broke support *8-10 weeks (see below) before the Oct 2007 top.. after nearly after a 6 month sideways move... Very similar to where we are at.. so yes we "could" head up.. still before rolling over. But seems to be a good place to start. Will add on breaks.. strong support on the RUT at previous highs.. so have to see what happens at that point

TRAN for interest 2007 / now.. for what it's worth.. interesting as mentioned above it broke down first.. and headed down a couple of months before the top.. only to make new highs later in 2008, as the index headed lower.. divergence x2 sort of..