Cobra's Market View

Crude Oil Narrative- Saturday Wall Street Journal went after crude with a couple of articles. First they did say that everyone was waiting for the reports next week to see if production would continue to drop in the US, but they followed by saying that US production drop was without serious impact on world supplies. They quoted a serious trader who shorted in the low 60's and recently cashed in as saying he was re-shorting anything above 48.50 (could have been 48.25).

Then a big write up with charts about subprime credit would be great if it wasn't for oil companies. So they are continuing to ring bells that there will be serious trouble as we move into the October restatement of financials and updating lending agreements.

Zerohedge had once again the chart showing how oil stocks got squeezed up last week big time and how that has failed on three previous occasions this summer.

I personally am sticking with my forecast that the shale drillers, and others, are going to go broke but until they do the big boys are going to squeeze this on a regular basis for some quick change.

daytradingES wrote:11:22 PM 8/29/2015

Some weekend review fun.
Clearly one can't take guessing at the upcoming week's movements as anything more than just fun - but hey - I enjoy trying!

Part 1
http://screencast.com/t/DNqLXIjI49sX
Part 2
http://screencast.com/t/Jk1FAbYeW9VQ

Thank you for sharing your trading plan - here's to hoping that it's not so obvious that the market does the complete opposite Awesome work!

15 minute. Off to a poor start, but bouncing a little now. We will see.P.S., on oil, the newest Peapatch catch phrase is "lower for longer". Just check out Nat gas over the last 7 years. Vote Cobra. glta

A trading idea is that, currently, SPY is behaving as a proxy (with relative strength) for China. So maybe the best way to understand SPY is to look at the chart of something like FXI.



Here I have time intervals for FXI. At each time interval, something significant occurs. The may and june intervals were lower highs and the decline gained strength each time as the downtrend line got steeper. The july and august events came around lows, but the downtrend line that began in june is still intact. It will be interesting to see if the downtrend line that is currently around 38 on FXI will hold. If thursday was the short term high for FXI, we actually have an even STEEPER decline beginning for FXI...

DellGriffith wrote:A trading idea is that, currently, SPY is behaving as a proxy (with relative strength) for China. So maybe the best way to understand SPY is to look at the chart of something like FXI.



Here I have time intervals for FXI. At each time interval, something significant occurs. The may and june intervals were lower highs and the decline gained strength each time as the downtrend line got steeper. The july and august events came around lows, but the downtrend line that began in june is still intact. It will be interesting to see if the downtrend line that is currently around 38 on FXI will hold. If thursday was the short term high for FXI, we actually have an even STEEPER decline beginning for FXI...

http://bit.ly/1VpLwoS

SSEC fwiw.. seems the pain is far from over. Take H&S pattern target with a grain of salt.. blue channel on the weekly is of more interest

ES Quick Update:
Looks like it was another easy money week for day traders. That makes it two weeks in a row, which probably means this upcoming week is likely going to be hard money.
Lots of consolidation or straight continuation of the Leg 2 deadcat bounce up?

WEEKLY sticksave bull bar, which means this week bulls will try for a straight continuation follow through targeting 2020-2034 immediately or an inside week first to consolidate
for next next week to try bull follow through again. Also, tomorrow is the last session for the monthly bar closing. Currently, it is a very large bear bar with a sticksave bottom.
ES is looking for the 2034 level for the throwback retest which is the previous 5 month price channel support. The range was 2134 vs 2034 previously as mentioned many times,
once we broke that the huge feedback loop of trapped traders flooded the prices down easily. If ES closes two days consecutively below 1935, then it’s very likely the deadcat bounce
is over and there will be no Leg 2 to the 2020-2034 immediate target.

Current roadmap/swing position planning:
Waiting on confirmation to see whether to enter a swing high probability short setup when ES is at 2020-2034 levels. (As long as ES keeps staying below 2075, I am going to treat this as a deadcat bounce)

Day trading ES this week:
Not going to bother day trading ES much unless risk 5/10 for 30 comes around again like the ES 1951 buystop I had earlier last week that executed by Aug 27,
since my time is better spent on trading options on the tech stocks I usually trade

A little bit of context if the above does not make any sense:
In my August 1 Update, the high probability short setup I talked before I left for vacation when prices were approaching the 2117-2134.
Price never got there exactly, only topped at 2109.25. Then, we formed a series of Lower High daily Setups, so a lot of competent traders had shorts positioned
going into the FOMC correction week for the 2034 range bound target.

This is too easy. mind the gap!

-A must read for traders and price action lovers-

Al Brooks' weekend update Aug 29 :

https://brookstradingcourse.com/market- ... ce-action/

Aug 22 for context: https://brookstradingcourse.com/market- ... ear-trend/

fehro wrote:Weekly/Daily Candles + Monthly... .Impress weekly recovery, monthly not so much, one more day to go.

Fehro, looks like CL two legged deadcat bounce looks good to go
Currently, daily 50SMA = 48.72. I have immediate target at 47 - 48 daily so far...

[quote="nonsumdignus"
Thank you for sharing your trading plan - here's to hoping that it's not so obvious that the market does the complete opposite Awesome work![/quote]

You are most welcome!

with o/n down at the moment Friday could have been a high 1991.00 - which was the lower level on the charts (though I'm waiting for the 2039 to 2042 level - I hope I don't miss the fall !!)

Today, Sunday, I updated my swing data

I was looking for a time pattern for the low to the high - Perhaps Monday Friday. (hope not as I'm not short yet!)
(time yes? not enough points recovery though)
http://screencast.com/t/dm3SnJfmw