02/22/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/

[josephli]

Flash PMI at 51, below estimates but still above 50. So was it bad enough to be good news? So far no, and that was the only significant US number for today. I guess we will have to borrow more European bad news to drive this market up.

well disappointing German PMI did not tank the market.

[josephli]

at key resistance. good chance bull will break out.

[Trades with cats]

Exactly my point! Bad is good again. Need bad enough to trigger QE 4, and this wasn't. Real clear economic growth is failing, so market is counting on more central planning. Big question is will they deliver at Shanghai conference. Probably more important than an FOMC meeting.

[fehro]

SPX .. mind the morning gap.. will we tag the 50d? .. so close, so obvious? 1951.68 .. the very key level.. the 1950 range.

[Mr. BachNut]

Target reached. The unfinished business noted on Friday is now complete.
I am still stalking short for a corrective move. A few target possibilities now noted.
Doesn't have to happen though if Mr. Market wants to inflict the pain trade on bears.

If we don't get a reversal of some sort around here, I am seeing another spot a squeeze higher on my ES chart that look interesting. Will post.

Real life will keep me busy until tomorrow afternoon. So, not sure I will be present to trade.

[daytradingES]

Levels 22-Feb
Breakout= 1945.00
BuyStop= 1945.00
Est High= 1943.00
Resistance= 1908.00
6pts<High= 1937.00
SABB= 1930.50
Est Mid = 1890.50
6pts>Low= 1923.75
Est Low= 1917.75
Support= 1873.00
SellStop= 1913.75
Breakdown= 1892.25
Est H-L dif= 25.25

[fehro]

INDEX days - TLT green, AAPL weakish this am, CPC/E spikes to extremes <0.60

[uempel]

It's Monday and all kinds of things can happen until Friday. But should SPX hold the 1920 level this week: bias is definitely bullish.

[daytradingES]

which day did CL switch from March to April as front month?

[uempel]

Mr. BachNut might be focusing on this black/blue resistance But I'm expecting an overshoot here. Not sure if the overshoot will be on the daily or the weekly.

Target reached. The unfinished business noted on Friday is now complete.
I am still stalking short for a corrective move. A few target possibilities now noted.
Doesn't have to happen though if Mr. Market wants to inflict the pain trade on bears.

If we don't get a reversal of some sort around here, I am seeing another spot a squeeze higher on my ES chart that look interesting. Will post.

Real life will keep me busy until tomorrow afternoon. So, not sure I will be present to trade.

The attachment NYMO 022216.jpg is no longer available

[Mr. BachNut]

If we don't find resistance around current levels, there is an interesting confluence above (blue circle) that may be the next stop.
Maybe after a shallow pullback and into month end?
Just a possibility, not a prediction. I don't know what will happen.

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. BachNut might be focusing on this black/blue resistance But I'm expecting an overshoot here. Not sure if the overshoot will be on the daily or the weekly.

I am with you eump.

Would ES 1955-1965 fit an overshoot scenario? I think that would be 1958-1968 in SPX terms. Or would that be too much overshoot?

[uempel]

I'd like to see SPX up at 1955 before I play the short side. It might be an intraday move ...

Mr. BachNut might be focusing on this black/blue resistance But I'm expecting an overshoot here. Not sure if the overshoot will be on the daily or the weekly.

I am with you eump.

Would ES 1955-1965 fit an overshoot scenario? I think that would be 1958-1968 in SPX terms. Or would that be too much overshoot?

[brokebybernacke2]

INDEX days - TLT green, AAPL weakish this am, CPC/E spikes to extremes <0.60

been watching those call premiums/put ratio ("put options has lagged volume in call options by 33.66%- puts dropping off pretty quickly) since last week, been a very good short entry indicator... again good risk return imo here to that 1950 level....think march month short targets if you are an option player are extremely interesting on the put side...Ichimoku clouds above pricing says beware the ides of march!

[Mr. BachNut]

I'd like to see SPX up at 1955 before I play the short side. It might be an intraday move ...

Mr. BachNut might be focusing on this black/blue resistance But I'm expecting an overshoot here. Not sure if the overshoot will be on the daily or the weekly.

I am with you eump.

Would ES 1955-1965 fit an overshoot scenario? I think that would be 1958-1968 in SPX terms. Or would that be too much overshoot?

The 50 day MA is at SPX 1951.63 (and falling). I am inclined to look for a reaction when price hits that.

[Cobra]

the pullback might test EMA20, then we'll see.

[fehro]

SPX hourly.. inverted hammer.. /ES 60m better version add a little more to the short side cautiously

[uempel]

Most likely too early to short:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

[josephli]

SPX hourly.. inverted hammer.. /ES 60m better version add a little more to the short side cautiously

boss, when did you enter your last short?