04/15/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX weak bounce, and take out LOD.. look for 2065 - RUT strongest, green

TLT also very green

[JFR]

Strong recovery right back to the opening price.

[superxy]

spy tlt recently are all strong，any reason？

[Daniel]

XLE, XLB lod!
XLK hod, QQQ green
bifurcated day

[JFR]

QQQs new high for the day.

[Wallstreetrader]

donwtrend channel and hs formation in the last days usually fails

[JFR]

Quiet little trading range. Taking a break ...

[fehro]

spy tlt recently are all strong，any reason？

one is lying.. Bond market I believe x2 the size of equities.. so who do you think is right? - so goes the saying

[fehro]

SPX 5m RS zone, .. VIX minor invs H&S .. need VIX to take out yesterday's HOD.. never did as SPX made new LOD.. so it's a tad weak.. or they are busy trying to buy cheap insurance first.. before next Wed VIX expiration.

[uempel]

Fib signal on the x-axis of daily SPX point to today or Monday

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages with a bullish bias:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPFINA|B|0

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B checking in but still on vacation.

The NYMO cycle is up?
I have tentatively marked April 7 as the low for the recent NYMO cycle with a benchmark price of SPX 2033.80.
I'll wait for a higher low and higher high sequence to confirm it, but calling it is reasonable given the latest NYMO high is above the local high at the end of March.
It is also reasonable to consider the possibility of a fakeout driven by OPEX dynamics. If so, price should roll over post OPEX (or after VIX expiration Wednesday).

Price action has been very bullish with limited pausing and really no pullback.
I had to go back to 2012 to find a NYMO cycle that ended with a sizeable divergence intact, and that divergence was not nearly as big as this one.
If we have a fakeout high (bull trap) here, perhaps we NYMO drops to a lower low while the divergence clears. Otherwise, the model gets a big Fail here.
Alas, Mr. Market can do whatever he wants.

I am flat.
I had some short on that was stopped out for a small loss (slurp some pina colada here).
If I had taken my scale when I was supposed to, I would have booked a small profit. Trade error... (slurp some more pina colada)
I'll be getting back in the saddle over the weekend.
Given the look of the chart, I am inclined to reload short using an intra day setup at some point for a post opex pullback, but I'll give it some more thought over the weekend.
I can imagine multiple forward possibilities actually. So, open mind ahead and no revenge trade.

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

maybe another push up then down to test day low? boring day, so just a guess for fun.

[fehro]

SPX .. bulls see a little invs H&S.. if we hold a higher low and up we go…. we take out LOD SPX/SPY we could see a sharp drop

[uempel]

Bye guys, have a great weekend:

SPX 120 min linear

[Daniel]

Materials, retailing gaining RS thru the AM session...

[Cobra]

2nd test of day low, if cannot make a decisive new low then bears over for today again, so key time.

[fehro]

SPX .. key time - invs H&S (not marked) .. or neckline H&S - also mind the 7.1 earthquake in Japan, Kumamoto Pref. with Tsunami advisory