06/11/2016 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

Apple will be a focus company for the market during the upcoming week, as the company is scheduled to hold its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) from June 13 through June 17.
In terms of earnings for the calendar second quarter (fiscal third quarter for Apple), the current mean EPS estimate is $1.40, compared to year-ago actual EPS of $1.85. If Apple reports a year-over-year decline in EPS for Q2 2016, it will mark the second straight quarter that the company has reported a year-over-year decline in EPS. The last time Apple reported two consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings declines was 2013. As a result of this projected decline in EPS, Apple is expected to be the largest contributor to the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector for Q2 2016. The estimated earnings decline for the Information Technology sector is -7.3%. Excluding Apple, the estimated earnings decline for the sector would improve to -2.1%. As of today, if Apple reports actual EPS equal to or below the mean EPS estimate for the quarter, it will mark the first time that Apple has been the largest detractor to earnings growth for the Information Technology sector for two consecutive quarters since Q2 2013 through Q3 2013.
What is driving Apple’s substantial contribution to the estimated earnings decline for the Information Technology sector for Q2 2016? Over the past three years on average, the iPhone product segment has accounted for about 60% of the total revenues generated by Apple. From Q1 2014 through Q4 2015, the iPhone product segment reported average yearover-year revenue growth of 31%. However, last quarter (Q1 2016), the segment reported a year-over-year decline in revenues of -18%. For Q2 2016, the iPhone product segment is projected to report a year-over-year decline in revenues of -22%.
[source: FactSet 6/10/16]

[fehro]

SPY long term weekly. Still in a position to go either way in a big way. 190/192 key red mid channel, cyan channel edge.
Loose that and slice 180-185 look for a sharp and fast drop once in the "thin zone" ( volume by price)
"Could" easily see $4-8 dollar day moves in the SPY < 190-180 , to the 155-150 range 2001/2007 highs 38% retrace. If the 150 range fails, could quickly see…. crazy I know.. 137-135 range next lower support with better Volume support. ( 50% retrace )

Ramblings on BREXIT.

"IF" UK votes a Yes to leave, I'd "expect" the Euro to see increasing pressure to break-up with other nations leaving, which contrarian to what most believe, could cause a huge up move in the US indexes as money leaves Europe to the "cleanest" dirtiest shirt,
US dollar, and US equities.

"IF" that is the case "could" see new all time highs in the SPY/SPX opposite to the view of market implosion. Also "IF" the US Dollar explodes up as anticipated, again contrary to what most believe I expect gold/oil will go down.
Gold more so. US Dollar up, FED may have it's hands tied in raising rates. No rate hike = more fuel to the upside.

I'd expect the Sterling to drop initially, but could be seen as a long term buying opportunity.. as now the Pound.. just "may" become the new "cleanest" dirtiest shirt of all currencies. Again all contrary to what everyone believes.

"No" vote and remain.. expect more of the same sideways to up… and more odds of a bull trap ironically.. up to new time highs.. then break down hard. All ramblings, imho, and all fwiw.

We should soon move out of this 12 month sideway pocket of 180-210 with vigour.

[Junior Buffett]

This will play tomorrow at the opening..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tages.html

[brucekeller]

This will play tomorrow at the opening..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tages.html

Most terrorist attacks seem to be bottoms unless it's a plane going missing.

[jademann]

Its funny (not) how the market seems to know that something bad is coming.
Perhaps a large short position was placed like in Casino Royale.

[Junior Buffett]

This will play tomorrow at the opening..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tages.html

Most terrorist attacks seem to be bottoms unless it's a plane going missing.

Shall we revisit 9/11? This is perhaps the biggest after 911...

[pezhead9000]

WSJ TSM Block Money Flow: From bullish to questionable
Lst week flow:
M: +1191
T: -2779
W: -553
TH: -1280
F: -3649

[fehro]

…..
I'd expect the Sterling to drop initially, but could be seen as a long term buying opportunity.. as now the Pound.. just "may" become the new "cleanest" dirtiest shirt of all currencies. Again all contrary to what everyone believes.
….

GBP/USD & GBP/EUR Super Long long term.. Weekly chart


"IF" the theory plays out..for BREXIT.. GBP could initially drop then go.. sounds nuts that the GBP could = the USD.. test 1984 lows (If so.. BUY property in London ) .. and almost EURO parity.. When / "IF" it turns around.. more so on the EURO.. could see it almost 2 to 1 .. yeah I know absolutely nuts.

[Royal Flush]

Dana Lyons addresses very large changes in puts and calls over the last couple of days, which must relate to the VIX eventually. Bottom line they dumped their insurance in the last half of the week and this is not good.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1457243736 ... eir-hedges

Thanks a very interesting article. However I don't know what to make of it because of a number of reasons. Firstly I can find no date on the article so I don't know when it was written. Secondly and more importantly Dana shows a complete lack of understanding of what he is writing about. By downloading ISEE data I was able to determine he was referring to ISEE's Thursday's Equity Only close. Furthermore he says:"Yesterday’s ISEE reading of 254 (i.e., 254 calls bought per every put), was the highest in more than 2 years. It was particularly unusual to see such a high reading on a down day in the market." How could anyone familiar with options actually think this? An ISEE figure of 254 means 2.54 calls for every put opening long transactions only. Regardless the fact that if this figure goes from <100 to >200 in 5 days a short term sell off results is very interesting. Thanks again for the post.

[JFR]

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[JFR]

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