07/02/2016 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Question for fehro and BullBear52x …
Hypothetically, assuming that you have a small position in /GC (gold futures), would you add to your position now, hold as is or trim some here? Thanks!

For short term trade Buy above 1337, resistance at 1344 is now a support, I will add above 1344, bail all below 1344.

[Al_Dente]

futures
Gold is going bonkers
Silver is limit up in shanghai

[Royal Flush]

For those that believe in financial astrology there is a 100/100 (max power) Bradley turn date for July 5th.
http://bradleysiderograph.com/2016-turn-dates-sp500/

[Trades with cats]

I thought this was a must read for those trying to understand oil, once you get past the bombastic headline. The gist of it is that the EIA needs two months to get accurate numbers on US demand, but just like the after the fact revisions to GDP the accurate numbers don't move markets. They do tell us that oil is still in serious trouble from oversupply. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-0 ... oled-algos

It is the 'Holy Grail' article I have been searching for because it explains how we are having record setting gasoline usage while most areas of consumer spending are flat to falling, except health care of course. Now we know, we arn't, it was just bad initial data.

For long term energy bulls (and I am one) all the recent news feed implies a lower low this fall, especially if JP Morgan is correct about China filling their SPR sometime this summer (that should kick tanker stocks hard). The lower low should have a traveling companion named default. This spring the $50 price resulted in billions of new cash into the sector which just prolongs the agony. Wall Street Journal said $20 billion in follow on share sales, a new record. It is the classic business mistake, not looking at what the industry is doing. Bondholders and equity buyers need to be badly beaten up to the point that money dries up regardless of a price surge if we are to ever see a durable bottom. Wall Street Journal recently ran a favorable review of Shawn Driscoll who runs the T Rowe Price New Era Fund. He thinks we are in a 10 to 15 year bear market and positions the natural resources fund that he runs appropriately. He named the current price run up as "hope trade #2". He made a lot of money for the fund playing hope trade #2. So to me that once again proves that you have to be a trader to survive. Oil bulls will have these sharp rallies but they will be followed by sell offs leading to ever lower lows until a couple of million barrels a day of surplus capacity goes away and stays away. That is not a one year process.

[gappy]

b.PNG

a.PNG

c.PNG

China has the biggest dog in the fight, but not the meanest. Waiting for the other shoe to drop down here in the oil soaked cotton patch. Happy Cherry Bombs to all! Vote Cobra, glta. Time to fire up the smoker.

[QED]

Question for fehro and BullBear52x …
Hypothetically, assuming that you have a small position in /GC (gold futures), would you add to your position now, hold as is or trim some here? Thanks!

For short term trade Buy above 1337, resistance at 1344 is now a support, I will add above 1344, bail all below 1344.

Nice call!

[fehro]

Weekly / Daily Candles ( note latest candles XOIL.X /DXY already this week) Weeklies look bullish but still near resistance. VIX nears support. Friday's Dailies looks possible topish/pause coming… inverted hammer doji.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies. a tad unusual GLD / TLT HOY, HOW. The onslaught of buy anything non-Euro

[fehro]

P&F Long long term

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Swings to the buy side.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

[fehro]

Yields.. 30/10/5 -8% quite the move for the week.

[fehro]

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

IRX 13- week Treasury still near multi year highs, FVX multi year lows

[fehro]

Way too early.. fwiw.. Nikkei W *possible H&S if a lower high (RS) is made. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-0 ... ing-japan?

[fehro]

Question for fehro and BullBear52x …
Hypothetically, assuming that you have a small position in /GC (gold futures), would you add to your position now, hold as is or trim some here? Thanks!

more longer term fwiw. Tricky here. Looking at the DXY weekly.. P&F .. and you can see a bull flag (see DXY charts above) with a measured move of +20% up in the USdollar.. sounds insane. "IF" that was to break out and go.
I'd expect some downward pressure on gold. /GC upper channel is $1400 range. It's over my messy charts.. resistance in this area.. a blow off? or monthly channel break.. and consolidation over the summer? not sure.
fwiw.

[fehro]

more longer term fwiw. Tricky here. Looking at the DXY weekly.. P&F .. and you can see a bull flag (see DXY charts above) with a measured move of +20% up in the USdollar.. sounds insane. "IF" that was to break out and go.
I'd expect some downward pressure on gold. /GC upper channel is $1400 range. It's over my messy charts.. resistance in this area.. a blow off? or monthly channel break.. and consolidation over the summer? not sure.
fwiw.

another view USDollar - DXY monthly at 20m SMA red. fwiw. with /bull flag target. arguments can be made for both sides. fwiw. imho.

http://thepatternsite.com/flags.html

[Al_Dente]

........

[QED]

... and you can see a bull flag (see DXY charts above) with a measured move of +20% up in the USdollar ... sounds insane. "IF" that was to break out and go.

WOW! Insane, but very possible in this market. Thanks!

[fehro]

... and you can see a bull flag (see DXY charts above) with a measured move of +20% up in the USdollar ... sounds insane. "IF" that was to break out and go.

WOW! Insane, but very possible in this market. Thanks!

YW, keep in mind that "could" take 6-8 months!.. monthly chart.

[fehro]

/ES 15m "should" find support at 2091 ish, June 30th close.. then RS?