Cobra's Market View

Admirable... very nice try bulls, but IWM stopped at trendline resistance (and TICK stopped at resistance), and IWM is now testing the lower channel boundary. This is a whipsaw channel that has been active for about 13 days, so I have to assume it will continue the whipsaw … we’ll see…
Bull AD is still strong enough to mount another try, but has been deteriorating quickly:
NY advancing stocks = 1.8 x declining stocks (down from 4.5x at the open)
NY advancing volume = 2.5 x declining volume
5m

fehro wrote:/CL 20d coming into range a buck lower at 52.24 .. that daily is ugly..

ding ding 20d sma red line.. Daily /CL

FOR IWM SMALL-CAP FOLKS:
Added the FORCE INDEX to the 5min IWM. Setting at 55 is arbitrary.
Force is a price-volume oscillator, measuring the balance of power behind a move, created by Dr. Elder.
You’d think that a “forceful” move (which it registered late Friday) would be bullish, but it has “always” marked a temporary top. Friday it told us that even if today spikes up more (it did), it would mark a temporary top, and give back….
Can only track 20 day, which is the limit for 5min charts
I’ve only been “watching” it for a couple months, so it is still on “test”.
Anyone with info or updates, please post

FORCE INDEX
http://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag ... l?st=force

Daily Candles… inv hammers / shooting stars... SPX/INDU/NDX/COMPQ and DXY/UPP at these levels.. and USO.. that's just fugly.

Overnight/weekend gap up. Working its way down.

Some NYSE stocks in the tank. From StockCharts % down list.

Back a bit later.

zh roundup, OY:
Debating “ethics” over at House of Rep… trump tweets… house dials it back…
Ford $1.6 billion Mexico plant… trump tweets…Ford dials it back… but Ford decision had nothing to do (cough) with Trump …Ford will now invest $700 million in Michigan, creating 700 new U.S. jobs [CNN]… Ford now trending worldwide on twitter…
The Atlanta Fed model forecast for real GDP growth in Q4 of 2016 is 2.9% on January 3, up from 2.5% on December 22
After a 70-year ban, Mein Kampf sales are legal again in Germany, and “sales have soared” [BBC]
Meanwhile, in Turkey, they arrest a fashion designer

SMALLS:
NEARING the potential for a multiple bottom, 5min IWM
Pretty important juncture, and due for a little bounce
If it can hold and move higher, it’s a little inverse H&S but with a neckline that makes it functionally useless as a pattern

From my corner.

like a buy round here, for kicks..good kicks...

triangle, bias just a little little down.

Still weak.. gap still open.. IMW red, AAPL red, SPX 20d 2252.17.. just under it.

FOMC minutes tomorrow (Wed 2pmET)
US Dec jobs (Fri 8:30amET)

new sell

Crude Oil fundamental news. Two OPEC middle east suppliers are cutting production, it was reported, and it was also reported that was the trigger for CL to hit 55 last night. Libya has started to return their main field towards regular production. Still a fraction of what it was "pre-liberation" but Bloomberg published a two month ship loading schedule today. They are eliminating 1/3 of the OPEC cut before it starts. The 'experts' have said that the cuts will eliminate the storage surplus if cheating is kept to no more than 5%. I would add that I can not think that India is helping the demand equation but I have seen nothing in print yet about a collapse in Indian demand.

The COT report once again showed record spec longs in CL. Who is selling them oil? It appears the shale drillers as the news articles keep pointing to a possible increase in US production, especially as the rig count has yet to turn down.

Genscape reported a 1 million barrel build in Cushing today. Last week we learned that US gasoline usage has been steadily going down for several weeks. Increasing exports are what is keeping things balanced.

Was today a blow off top in a market driven 100% by Saudi controlled narrative? I am not the one to know but the whole thing seems ripe for a negative narrative lead pannick the longs with some big winter build numbers all orchestrated by the trading houses. What ever they do upper management will make sure the damage is undone before the ARAMCO IPO because their cut on that action will be very nice I would think.

Some percentages since 11/9, the day after the election

a trade under 2245 will increase a chance of more new LL intraday
a trade under 2240 short term down trend will resume, so bulls got a lot of reason to stay strong from here.

SPX still under 20d SMA 2252.21

SMALL
Near enough to a multiple bottom to call it such
Instead of long for a bounce, I’m waiting, and looking for a good spot to short (near here), until more proof develops that bulls can hold water….
1min IWM is weighted about 18% small financials (eg: PSCF) and about 18% small tech (eg: PSCT)
So I’m thinking it’s not the end of the world until these two give up (PSCF is still barely in long territory),
or until IWM breaks that bottom line decisively
60min