Cobra's Market View

soku wrote:my line of defense remains at 1246 even tho overnight low was 1244.25
waiting for 10:00 data. if bad, ...

funny. 2 data hit the tape. 1 good 1 bad. the good one is not too good, while the bad one is very bad. since the good one came out first, es got a small push up.
now what? let's see.

ChiOsc too low now. also judging by VIX, seems we're bottomed here. short-term bottom I mean. let's see.

my chinese source says italy high officers are in china and singapore trying to sell italian gov bonds. lol
god bless china, the white knight. hope they can hold everything

every time there is a drop in the market, this place is very quiet. only cobra, the traffic guy and i, a perma bear are talking?
my bots says detected sell programs. re-testing 1246 line now. it is summer time. ppt on vacation, maybe?

China starting to own EU

soku wrote:my chinese source says italy high officers are in china and singapore trying to sell italian gov bonds. lol
god bless china, the white knight. hope they can hold everything

Margin calls going out if SPX breaking 1250.
Oops they're going out now...

Vrooom...
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_4149.html

overshot, volume surge, biggest bar, so this one could be an exhaustion bar. I believe I made the first score should be able to make the 2nd score too, but the whole plan needs adjustment I'm afraid as the current push down is way too strong. Let's see the rebound first, then change plan later.

soku wrote:my chinese source says italy high officers are in china and singapore trying to sell italian gov bonds. lol
god bless china, the white knight. hope they can hold everything

I am actually from Singapore.
If Singapore govt or SWF buys those bonds and the local population got wind of it, they are not going to be very pleased ....

Do you think there's a grand plan to get QE3 by driving down the market to make Benny to act?

soku wrote:every time there is a drop in the market, this place is very quiet. only cobra, the traffic guy and i, a perma bear are talking?
my bots says detected sell programs. re-testing 1246 line now. it is summer time. ppt on vacation, maybe?

sell off from 10:18 as i reported is generated by some fund liquidation. based on the decent order size and market impact, i think it is is bigger than average. as i mentioned yesterday, since we lost 200ma, we shd expect to see more this kind of liquidation.

Cobra wrote:overshot, volume surge, biggest bar, so this one could be an exhaustion bar. I believe I made the first score should be able to make the 2nd score too, but the whole plan needs adjustment I'm afraid as the current push down is way too strong. Let's see the rebound first, then change plan later.

Hi Cobra, can you explain your criteria of "volume surge"? Thanks.
I look at TICK surge and find it useful at times.

RUT
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/rut_03.html

Honey...what's for lunch?

Bond wrote:

soku wrote:my chinese source says italy high officers are in china and singapore trying to sell italian gov bonds. lol
god bless china, the white knight. hope they can hold everything

I am actually from Singapore.
If Singapore govt or SWF buys those bonds and the local population got wind of it, they are not going to be very pleased ....

bloomberg just said singapore rejected the deal. this causes italian 10-yr spread widen.
wow i guess your sov fund is working hard for you people

My SPX target is 1225

another possible exhaustion bar, let's see. this mark really is sick. it's been faked by Fed, now the drop is no ordinary anymore.

deep over sold, at trend support, and 100% Fib extensions, no bounce here spx as we know it is doomed.

pidge66 wrote:

Cobra wrote:overshot, volume surge, biggest bar, so this one could be an exhaustion bar. I believe I made the first score should be able to make the 2nd score too, but the whole plan needs adjustment I'm afraid as the current push down is way too strong. Let's see the rebound first, then change plan later.

Hi Cobra, can you explain your criteria of "volume surge"? Thanks.
I look at TICK surge and find it useful at times.

just the biggest volume for certain period of time. no absolute value just a relative value.

still think this is an exhaustion bar and we shall see a rebound but overall, the rebound will fail, the push down was so damn strong, very rare to rally huge on the very first rebound.

Me XMan wrote:Do you think there's a grand plan to get QE3 by driving down the market to make Benny to act?

i think you are exactly right in this assumption, my view is a major bottom is about to take place that will kick off a rally (QE3) heading into x-mas that will indicate a major long term top at which point the big picture trend turns to down.

hiram


p.s banks are not following lower.