Cobra's Market View

anyone pay attention to the commitment of traders report last week? did you guys see the huge pop of commercial traders for the SP going LONG?

shumushu wrote:anyone pay attention to the commitment of traders report last week? did you guys see the huge pop of commercial traders going LONG?

Are Leveraged Funds commercial traders? I saw they added more short. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm

pdz wrote:

shumushu wrote:anyone pay attention to the commitment of traders report last week? did you guys see the huge pop of commercial traders going LONG?

Are Leveraged Funds commercial traders? I saw they added more short. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm

I use this website to view it. It has CHARTS =)

http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
I don't know the specifics of what in considered as commerical index traders. But I do think they are right more often than not.

looks like if we don't hold here, we'll fill the gap, no?

lower low after 10:30?

TZA having a difficult time at the 50 fibonacci line. Daily and 1 minute chart.

UPRO today: found support at pivot (47.13) and then timidly reentered the OpRa (30 min).
Altogether….it’s weak…

shumushu wrote:

pdz wrote:

shumushu wrote:anyone pay attention to the commitment of traders report last week? did you guys see the huge pop of commercial traders going LONG?

Are Leveraged Funds commercial traders? I saw they added more short. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm

I use this website to view it. It has CHARTS =)

http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
I don't know the specifics of what in considered as commerical index traders. But I do think they are right more often than not.

Here is Reuters view of all COT:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/02/cftc.html

tough call here, I'll watch. not sure if it's a bear flag. green line below must hold.

Not trading today but I thought I would post this. Watch your pivots!

Fourth day in a row: QQQ makes the TOD at opening ?
Hmm…

Cobra wrote:tough call here, I'll watch. not sure if it's a bear flag. green line below must hold.

ewww. that's a break on my chart.

Channel and Target

bear flag indeed, tinted area as textbook target.

FYI..Trans has been falling,Not good..UTIL are now in the red,Not good..Watch UTIL if drops to the 413/415 area the mkt will fall fast. Wait and see.

oh boy it would be a good reversal from this morning.

KENA wrote:FYI..Trans has been falling,Not good..UTIL are now in the red,Not good..Watch UTIL if drops to the 413/415 area the mkt will fall fast. Wait and see.

bears are determined to close the gap; broke 50 fibonacci; broke resistance at 57.00

Long bonds are near their 20 year highs. Last time that happened was Dec ’08, three months before the Mar ’09 SPX bottom.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... listNum=15


Cobra: Thanks for your target of 1000 SPX within 1-2 months.
Rhodes has an even lower target in his Saturday blog on stockcharts.com with convincing stats going back to 1980.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatch ... arket.html

His (long term) take: sell the short-covering spikes; out at 1221 ish if wrong.

PS: Cobra: what settings are you using on your 5min ema envelopes?

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold_22.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/silver_22.html

Updates

Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/crude_22.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/30y_22.html