11/15/2018 Live Update

[Daniel]

XLF 26.50 was recently posted on this board as a "line in the sand" figure. XLF is currently still below that....

you bet. far as i'm concerned, no bear on till that is taken back with conviction.

..did you mean no 'BULL' on, until that's taken back w conviction..?

[Daniel]

XRT down 2%, despite today's release of some strong retail sales numbers and projections of a decent holiday shopping season.

[Al_Dente]

Thanks Al.

A few days back you mentioned funds needing to sell (around the 15th?) -risk neutral funds?
What 's your radar say on fund selling today and tomorrow?

Yes, my 11/13 post was:
REMINDER: the imminent Hedge Fund “redemption notices” date, which we posted about before, is Nov 15
• Another unwind of popular hedge fund positions has to do with the de-betaing of portfolios in a hurry … unwinding “long high beta, short low beta” bets


So, today is the deadline for getting your redemption requests in
I’m GUESSING that some/many clients think they could do better with a dart board
Won’t know anything for sure until zh decides to post something revealing

[BullBear52x]

today is important enough for me to track all of the internals as possible.
$TICK is up
$TRIN is well below zero

Bullish so far.

[brokebybernacke2]

XLF 26.50 was recently posted on this board as a "line in the sand" figure. XLF is currently still below that....

you bet. far as i'm concerned, no bear on till that is taken back with conviction.

..did you mean no 'BULL' on, until that's taken back w conviction..?

i did, apologies. need coffee. and watch daily PPO , we get a down cross on that, mas oso.

ot - not much panic out there really, much buy the dip and end of year rally start talk, when/if is monster down day to set up a bounce?..

[brokebybernacke2]

XLF 26.50 was recently posted on this board as a "line in the sand" figure. XLF is currently still below that....

you bet. far as i'm concerned, no bear on till that is taken back with conviction.

..did you mean no 'BULL' on, until that's taken back w conviction..?

i did, apologies. need coffee. and watch daily PPO , we get a down cross on that, mas oso.

ot - not much panic out there really, much buy the dip and end of year rally start talk, when/if is monster down day to set up a bounce?..

watching for more...

[BullBear52x]

chart pattern intraday

[Daniel]

HYG down -1/2% to a fresh 20day low--Donchian sell signal!

[Al_Dente]

SEMIS
"I actually think it's the biggest tell"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/this-gr ... -says.html

[daytradingES]

so we are now below the breakdown level of 2675.25 with 2671.25

This means no long trades and sell any bounces.

Though my dir of -1 seems like it was correct
the estimates are wrong and too high.
It seems unlikely to have a "V" day so the current HOD of 2698 could be it.

That statement seems incredible given how low today's start was and the prior 10 years of "buy the dip" - however I guess I should have reminded myself about what I said yesterday:

a close near these levels would be "3 black crows" (in a way) and make the funds quite nervous - especially if they and their fund friends near to sell (parity and redemptions

Postby daytradingES » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:19 pm

My mess-up today, is the problem with getting to "cutsy".(looking for the bounce and then reverse - as I posted earlier) -

I should have just focus on -- the bigger picture.

"3 black crow sitting in a row,
where the market
down it go."

[QED]

$PCALL > 1.39 = retrace (up) coming soon!

[BullBear52x]

chart pattern intraday

looks like declining wedge is breaking out, from here the closed of yesterday should be a good target.

Scalp to the moon.....

[Cobra]

so far looks like a range day

[Al_Dente]

The Russell “Death Cross”(50sma crosses below the 200sma) happened yesterday 11/14/18
Rob Hanna data back to 1988 is for RUSSELL only:
[Spoiler: it is supposed to be a bear-market signal, but stats show 86% bullish !! ]
http://quantifiableedges.com/the-histor ... wing-them/

[BullBear52x]

Feels good to be bullish in a day like today.

[Heck]

Extreme Fear 7 and All Three Option Sentiment Reading = UP

[q2model]

Feels good to be bullish in a day like today.

I like the tune of that. Great call earlier

[Al_Dente]

Gluten-free SMALLS
This week, every dead cat has been an opportunity to sell
Maybe this time is different; we don’t know yet…
5 min, short term, not intraday

[BullBear52x]

Extreme Fear 7 and All Three Option Sentiment Reading = UP

I shown $CPC and $CPCE, charts earlier today, if we don't see fear there then we are too bearish and most likely be in a complacency state of bearishness. been there done that

[BullBear52x]

Feels good to be bullish in a day like today.

I like the tune of that. Great call earlier