Cobra's Market View

Cash SPX Fib, same playbook, keep it simple. any more new HH from here I will call it a day. no buy for me.

The NYMO cycle is UP.
We did have two negative closes this week, but it looks corrective after last week's surge.
The higher highs today confirm.

Pricewise, another day another gap.
We are back above the upper keltner, which is bullish.
The late January correction didn't quite tag the middle keltner, but it was close.
No gap targets above and a plethora below.
Pac Man wants to gobble those gaps but is distracted evading the blue goblin.

I am long SPX and flat R2K.
Position started Friday and added to Monday and Tuesday.
Sizing is smaller than usual given feelings that this is late stage move. May have been a mistake.
One scale taken but still a few handles away from a second scale and BE stop.
No setup for R2K at the moment. Could go either way.

The pullback should be bought but it also means it's just a range day.

Mr. BachNut wrote: Position started Friday and added to Monday and Tuesday.

Correction: Added to Sunday (night) and Monday.
I forgot what day it was today... It's all a blur...

And boom we are back. Euro time zone folks are going home so there goes volume as well.Wondering if we go to work on the gap or just chop.

Fed Balance Sheet Expanding Again = UP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

$SPX BUYING Above 3,360.86

potus tweets during Powell's testimony

Heck wrote:Fed Balance Sheet Expanding Again = UP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

No way they can reverse course until those I-Phones start shipping again. Real issue is somebody has to buy all the new issue treasury debt and if the Fed doesn't provide the $s then the money will get pulled out of other assets.

Al_Dente wrote:potus tweets during Powell's testimony

https://tinyurl.com/vhvtx7r

Possible lower high, just bears normally cannot be trusted, so say, 50% chances.

Double bottom, for now at ES 3360. Coolbiz was calling that the significant level. I see it being heavily defended.

ES daily. Testing new high, well above the EMA 20.

ES 5. Ups and downs. Near the low since the open.

Dow 30. Leaders and laggards about even on the day.

Bears surprising me today, better than expected. let see if they can turn the TRIN up also by the closed.

Overnight gap up on ES, NQ, YM and RTY. 15 minute charts.

ES back down to a support level. NQ and YM filled the overnight gap. RTY back down to the opening price.

ES 3357 was the middle of the night high last Thursday. It seems to be important.

Updated wave count from Coolbiz

This pullback is OK for a Wave (iv) in the range of 3360-3355, so far 3357.89. Next is a leg up to 3379-3387 area to complete the Wave (v) of [v] of Minor 5 of Int. (3).

Personally I would like to see the opening print and overnight low in the rear view mirror before saying this down move is over.

ES 5. Between the EMA 20 and the trendline, at the support level.