Cobra's Market View

Al said: Hi BB, whatja get for Xmas?

More socks and PJ

RED candle on DBV, woo hoo...there is hope on da bear, see RSI start the turn wait for MACD hist. to turn, then short term top is in.

RE: “Volatility & Manipulation”:
In contrast to AAPL, the Empirical Mode envelope of VIX has narrowed substantially…while VIX is still in jail, under the Acceleration Band (blue)!
This is not surprising...LOL!

cougar wrote:RE: “Volatility & Manipulation”:
In contrast to AAPL, the Empirical Mode envelope of VIX has narrowed substantially…while VIX is still in jail, under the Acceleration Band (blue)!
This is not surprising...LOL!

I think that will change shortly

cougar wrote:Merry Christmas!...Can we reach 1294.4 around Jan 3rd 2012?...Yes, we can!==============
Two recent ovoids better accommodate a decreasing volatility.

[edit: sorry, still working on this, will re post later]

In search of TOPs? (Vise versa for bottom) I see nothing as top to meet my criteria beside Negative Volume reversal, this low holiday volume added to the confusion. OK, got to go good luck all in the week to come and thank you for all the great charts.

RE: “Volatility & Manipulation”…again:
Now let us move to an independent approach...in which the price action of a single entity should not be the sole responsible for “printing” a volatile pattern. Thus, we shall look at adv/decl measured on NDX*.
Interestingly, it appears that soon after the Dec 07 SELL signal, the EM envelope started to narrow significantly.
For 2 weeks there was no trade-able signal...until 12/21, when INTRA-DAY** the QQQ market started to “melt up".

Tentative interpretation: the Qs should move slowly higher, in conditions of low “genuine” volatility…
In such cases, stock pickers do well.

==========
*I prefer NDX for this purpose, since the bernank and sweet tim, while eternally in love with the banksters, would never help or bail out high techs… In their language: “…those g.d. geeks can take care of themselves…”
**For the initiation of short term trends, intra-day reversals are more “significant” than gap-reversals… IMHO.

Al_Dente wrote:

cougar wrote:Merry Christmas!...Can we reach 1294.4 around Jan 3rd 2012?...Yes, we can!==============
Two recent ovoids better accommodate a decreasing volatility.

[edit: sorry, still working on this, will re post later]

This might help:
- 3 points of contact/reversal with the purple OVOID are now marked.
- the A’s fork, which I used but had not presentd before, is now on chart (dotted white).
- the 2 big Os (white) are defined as potential future cross-overs .
Ovoids are not “painted”. LOL! Yes there are formulas…Some smart cookies, like Newton and Descartes, worked on them…

“Not two hen-eggs are identical, but a five year old can recognize the drawing of an egg immediately…Why?”- Descartes…And thus the ”Cartesian Ovoid” was born. Well, charting is not physics or math but one can experiment…Nothing wrong with that…

As Al said, both LQD and HYG are signaling risk on, yet they are both at lateral resistance, so we should see these two fall slightly with equities before resuming the rally to assumed overhead resistance around 1300 $SPX.

cougar wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

cougar wrote:Merry Christmas!...Can we reach 1294.4 around Jan 3rd 2012?...Yes, we can!==============
Two recent ovoids better accommodate a decreasing volatility.

...[edit: sorry, still working on this, will re post later]

This might help:...- 3 points of contact/reversal with the purple OVOID are now marked.
- the A’s fork, which I used but had not presentd before, is now on chart (dotted white).
- the 2 big Os (white) are defined as potential future cross-overs .
Ovoids are not “painted”. LOL! Yes there are formulas…Some smart cookies, like Newton and Descartes, worked on them…
“Not two hen-eggs are identical, but a five year old can recognize the drawing of an egg immediately…Why?”- Descartes…And thus the ”Cartesian Ovoid” was born. Well, charting is not physics or math but one can experiment…Nothing wrong with that…

Thanks cougar. I’m just working on better understanding your charts.
When I draw the fib horizontals from the 1074 low (10/4/11) to the 1292 high (10/27/11) and then draw the vertical “time zone” fibs from the Oct high on out….THEY DO MEET SPX 1292 AT APPROXIMATELY 16 JAN !!

And if I push and pull your ellipses around, I can get them to hit SPY near Jan 16, albeit much lower on SPY (1241 ish), which is why I was wondering if the ellipses were formulaic or arbitrary…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... listNum=15

CAVEAT: I’m just wild guessing and tinkering with vertical “time zone” Fibonaccis. I never use use andrews pitchforks either, but if i had to, it indicates SPX 1209 near jan 16...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TO48Cnl66w&ob=av2e

This is a GLD 130 min chart, never posted before…
It shows that the recent Gann Fan has recently defined the moves of the price action, quite reliably and better than the previous ascending Fibonacci Fan which was previously Ok.
That descending Fan actually is a home-cooked hybrid and I call it “FiboGann Fan“, since its slope is adjusted to the famous ratio 1.618.
The simplest thing to say is that since a descending fan works well, one might still be “bearish” on GLD until it breaks away from the spell of this down-looking set of time/price lines.
All...IMHO...

GOTTA re-post this as I deleted it:
PS: I’m still pist at SPY. Oldest trick in the book: run ‘em into the close (either way) on Fridays (especially on a holiday Friday after most traders have gone home). Al fell for it. Old Al the squeeze freak who’s endlessly checking and yakking about squeezes. No excuse.
Plus Al forgot what a really smart King used to tell us: “Never underestimate the power of the bulls” aka bears buying-back-to-cover-shorts.

SLV is not a buy, until it gets out of jail = previous target zone…

...while palladium had a nice breakout.
=======================
Note: On several previous occasions, PALL was an “early mover”.

Have a nice evening, guys!
Going to a late Boxing Day lunch…

Interesting article on gold and silver.

http://www.econmatters.com/2011/12/prec ... review+%29

The chart comparing the bull market in gold to technology is very interesting.

dcurban1 wrote:Interesting article on gold and silver.
http://www.econmatters.com/2011/12/prec ... review+%29
The chart comparing the bull market in gold to technology is very interesting.

thanks dcurban1 for the interesting gold article.
I’ve use a standard deviation of “2” weekly that has been pretty reliable. The last eleven times the “2” standard deviation reached 30, it indicated a top/bottom ten times and one fail (the blue dotted line). In previous years the benchmark line was slightly lower than 30.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD& ... =248407666

Do you have any thoughts on TIPS?
It is hard to ignore that the dollar is pulling gold lower while TIPS are still indicating higher.

The relationship between TIPS and gold is difficult to study in any depth, as the first TIPS were only born in January 1997, and the TIP etf proxy opened in 2003. TIPS are a liquid, robust market, with par value outstanding of about $530 billion (roughly 10% of the U. S. Treasury market), and an average daily turnover of about $8 billion. The volume of the etf proxy TIP is quite tiny by comparison. As you probably know, TIPS are essentially a put option on inflation, because at maturity the TIPS owner receives the greater of the original principal or the inflation adjusted principal. If the cumulative inflation over the life of the TIPS is negative (i.e., deflation), the TIPS investor can force the U.S. Treasury to redeem the TIPS at par.

It appears that TIPS have responded accurately (in the small number of test years available) to inflation/deflation “scares” and note in the chart above that during the 2008-09 crisis the deflationary expectations (and negative changes in the CPI index for the second half of 2008) pushed the value of TIP and Gold down, then they both rebounded back to a “risk-on” inflationary expectation environment, since 2009. Same thing happened during the 2003-04 crisis (not in the chart).

Dang futures aren't working yet!

WOW did everybody check cobra’s main board, that’s where all the deep thinking is today, with RECORD long cobra disqus posts. What a treat.

New highs on this daily chart match the October high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15
However if you change this chart to weekly and change the time frame to 2+ years, it can only be called “near top” at best.