Cobra's Market View

Where's your blog BullBear?

Good chart on breadth. Price has not dropped enough on enough stocks to hit the bullish percent index yet, which is based on point and figure counts I believe. On raw advance/declines, things have gone flat particularly over the last 8 +/- trading days. As the McClellan Oscillators are based on the 19 day EMA - 39 day EMA of net advance/declines, going flat after a big advance will kick out negative numbers. So, the current negative readings are not close to oversold at all. They simply reflect the strength of the advance in January/early February against or more neutral condition now.

Mr. BachNut wrote:

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Where's your blog BullBear?

Good chart on breadth. Price has not dropped enough on enough stocks to hit the bullish percent index yet, which is based on point and figure counts I believe. On raw advance/declines, things have gone flat particularly over the last 8 +/- trading days. As the McClellan Oscillators are based on the 19 day EMA - 39 day EMA of net advance/declines, going flat after a big advance will kick out negative numbers. So, the current negative readings are not close to oversold at all. They simply reflect the strength of the advance in January/early February against or more neutral condition now.

Bullbear52x.blogspot

IWM: On Friday price has finally confirmed the loss of the critical horizontal support at 81.18 (February 3 gap). Price could have a truncated the wave (5) by failing to accomplish the common thrust out of Triangle. If this assumption is correct we could have a completed EWP from the November lows. Therefore the assumed top would be either a wave (W) or a wave (A). In this scenario there is no restrain/limitation regarding the depth of the pullback but it should be larger then the one expected for SPX. We have to see how price behaves once/if it reaches the 50dsma and the rising trend line support. Anyway I guess that the 200 dsma could come into play.

(thewavetrading.com)

SMH:it seems obvious the pullback is in progress. A lower high is a “fait accomplis”, in addition we have a most likely bearish Head & Shoulder with a target at 32.50

(thewavetrading.com)

NDX : Maybe on Monday this "beast" could top since if price is unfolding an Ending Diagonal there is not much upside left.

(thewavetrading.com)

TVIX : Follow up of a potential EWP

it could be on the verge of completing a large sideways corrective move. If the count that I am following is the correct one then the target range for a pending wave (C) up is located in the range: 22.85-27.32

(thewavetrading.com)

In the SPX daily chart (below) I have the potential “map” of my preferred scenario and in the left side I have highlighted the 2 possible EWP options for the expected wave (4) pullback. If price breaches 1300 this count could be jeopardized

(thewavetrading.com)

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Here’s Tom McClellan Friday on his own oscillator NYMO
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... scillator/

Speaking of "Weekend Watering", I was going to work on a post that would show what HFT/Algos have done to the market since this article was written in The Economist in 2009 http://www.economist.com/node/14133802 but a pipe broke under a sink. So yeah, I had weekend watering alright.

In part from the article: “It appears exchanges are conspiring with a privileged group of high-frequency traders in a massive fraud,” says Whitney Tilson, a fund manager. Requiring orders to be posted for at least a second would nullify the value of flash orders and of probing the market“.

Well we know that former head of the NYSE Grasso said to rip them out, and that his appearance on one of the financial shows (MSNBC I believe) was taken down within 24 hours. And we know that the recent consideration to require a time for a bid or offer to remain in the system was shot down. And we know that Wall Street pumped, and is pumping many millions of dollars into campaign coffers as well as lobbying hard on the Hill to tell legislators how we are all benefiting through liquidity. And we know that the banks have been pumped with taxpayer billions. In fact, everything is so good out there in the market we know it stinks. The book that was written in the 1940s was entitled, "Where Are All The Customer's Yachts?", should now read, "Where Are All The Customer's Homes?"

This is the institutionalized raping of the investor for you do not have the ability to hit a bid or an offer when it hits your screen a second or more after it happened, and it is valid for only nanoseconds. If you read the article above you'll see that not only was nothing done in 3 years, but it was placed on steroids.

Perhaps Cobra wants to put a poll up at the close on Friday asking if you have traded for 5 years or more (to have seen the mkts change), do you feel the mkts are harder to trade than before the 2008 mkt collapse? My answer is clearly yes for the average trader and I hope to find the time to illustrate my point in a cogent fashion in the next weekend or two.

moment of truth for the SPX, either a nice impulsive move down through this key support or a bounce to new highs