Cobra's Market View

nyadv ~1200
nydec ~1400
chop/range day; neither dominates at the moment

DOW: Critical juncture as Bulls / Bears fighting for a relief wave (2) bounce or a killer wave (iii) of (3)

Al_Dente wrote:nyadv ~1200
nydec ~1400
chop/range day; neither dominates at the moment

515one.png

Technically speaking, an inside day (prices within yesterday's high and low) today would make things really interesting. If Mr. Market moves from sell to indecision, it sets up for a good potential breakout one way or the other tomorrow. Let's watch and see.

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:...chop/range day...

515one.png

Technically speaking, an inside day (prices within yesterday's high and low) today would make things really interesting. If Mr. Market moves from sell to indecision, it sets up for a good potential breakout one way or the other tomorrow. Let's watch and see.

DAILY CHART yesterday’s close here (but intraday, looks like dollar broke out???)

Dollar broke out (bear spy), treasuries uptrend (bear spy)
Dollar and treasuries are overbought and could get more ob …
Red lines/arrows refers to bear spy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST&p ... =264431808
[Hi Mr. Bachnut, but our $TED looks semi-healthy bull, no?]

NDX: the chart does not look too bullish

Sunday gap stopped es around london open
5/8 bounce stopped it so far

Bachnut, you've been mentioning INDU: check this P&F chart (traditional), cries out loud not to long, not to cover shorts. But beware, the P&F ATR has not (yet?) broken support. Difficult to measure up (INDU P&F ATR not shown here)

I just posted this breadth chart on the weekend, and blabla about how Cobra’s green signal line was so much better blabla.
mmmmmmmmmmmm here it is current today
Yesterday touched Cobra’s “bottom line” (green arrow) and today bounce…

Al_Dente wrote:I just posted this breadth chart on the weekend, and blabla about how Cobra’s green signal line was so much better blabla.
mmmmmmmmmmmm here it is current today
Yesterday touched Cobra’s “bottom line” (green arrow) and today bounce…

515breadth.png

Thanks!

uempel wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:I just posted this breadth chart on the weekend, and blabla ...

515breadth.png

Thanks!

note last times it hit cobra’s “bottom line”
April 10
March 6
Early Dec
All were at/near spy bottoms

I’m getting oversold but not “bottom” signals quite yet on other stuff (NYMO, NAMO, etc…)
Can’t rely only one indicator
Thanks uempie for P&F and etc

Al, your chart doesn't support bullish trades...

uempel wrote:Al, your chart doesn't support bullish trades...

xx.png

A bit more downside today, perhaps tomorrow too. I'm waiting for a bang which spreads a bit of panic before the market turns up again. At the moment everything is much too sober, market behaves as though all the "accidents" were priced in.

Al_Dente wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:...chop/range day...

515one.png

Technically speaking, an inside day (prices within yesterday's high and low) today would make things really interesting. If Mr. Market moves from sell to indecision, it sets up for a good potential breakout one way or the other tomorrow. Let's watch and see.

DAILY CHART yesterday’s close here (but intraday, looks like dollar broke out???)

Dollar broke out (bear spy), treasuries uptrend (bear spy)
Dollar and treasuries are overbought and could get more ob …
Red lines/arrows refers to bear spy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST&p ... =264431808
[Hi Mr. Bachnut, but our $TED looks semi-healthy bull, no?]

Don't know what to make of TED. Libor has been flatlined since March below the highs but well above the lows despite volatile newsflow.
The interbank market is probably no good for signaling now. At any given price, what the banks won't supply each other, the ECB has. Too artificial. Not a market price.

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This board sure dies when Cobra is changing his oil. LoL.

uempel wrote:Al, your chart doesn't support bullish trades...

The attachment xx.png is no longer available

Agree
And I don’t have a buy signal yet on my 60min renko (it’s been on sell signal since 5/3)
I’m not buying yet, but I will if SPY forces me to

Euro close to or right at strong support

uempel wrote:Bachnut, you've been mentioning INDU: check this P&F chart (traditional), cries out loud not to long, not to cover shorts. But beware, the P&F ATR has not (yet?) broken support. Difficult to measure up

Indu.png

(INDU P&F ATR not shown here)

Very much in agreement uempel. I point out INDU because it is arguably on first push down from it's high (or a double top). Using the Cobra school of thought, I want to see 2 pushes down to a bottom. So, between here and a bottom, there may be a corrective rally. The other indexes on the other hand are coming off lower highs. So, one could argue that they are already on a second push down.

I have a stop on my short as a matter of discipline for the setup not because of bullishness. The market doesn't have to do what it seems its supposed to do. If I get taken out, I am open to reloading the short if I can justify it.

Al, I've got something for noon - precisely 12.00 EDT. Poor BachNut, no lunch for him today.

We have dip buyers