Cobra's Market View

Down trend day, Looking down to 3863 /ES, 3900ish will be a toilet stop then continue. we may not get it today but who knows, It's TA things.

$CPC and $TRIN continue to stay >1, Day #2

Not seeing the falling off the edge of a cliff effect. concerned..
Vix isnt responding either..

It's the very first test of EMA20 in 2+ hours, should attract some sellers.

Nasdaq 100 technology $NDXT is looking like week June 13 to mid July. If we go below 5898.45, then we are in wave 2, which can go down from the top wave 1 finished at 6506.49 as low as %38=5995, %50=5836 and 62%=5677, if we go below 5303, then we are roasted. $NDXT ( daily chart) is trying to get back to lower band ( Bollinger Band) side way. Out of 100 stocks in $NDXT, 45 are still above 200SMA, 66 out of 100 stocks are still above 50 SMA. This might be trap or as soon as I finish with fuzzy my thoughts, we fall off the cliff.
Note we started $NDXT on Oct 13 at level 5198.43 and up to 6509.43, a little more drop, it goes much higher, IMO.

We are going down $NDXT 6004.

Interesting post from Tom Bowley:
Money is clearly rotating into growth stocks ... risk on...
https://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_i ... r-708.html

If the $NDXT is forming wave abc for wave 2., we are getting closer to the finishing a, I usually see 6M,8M lots of TQQQ, then they push it up to wave b and we have another drop of c to complete in few days.( Selling from high to low). We might be very close to finish one leg down (a), out of abc. IMO and my observation. We might not be there yet.
It is accumulating now.
We are still 60/100 stocks above 50 sma and 45 above 200sma in $NDXT.

Waiting on a sturdy fast pattern which could be developing now.... EOD may tell the whole story. It's an orderly down move so far. Wyckoff would say it was the final flush of the weak hands. Chart is a 3 x .02%. I love how it drills into volume.

Switched to UPRO. Santa Rally.. what?

I went long too.

Compare this Fast Chart with volume profile with last chart posted...Maybe too early for the party?

merryme wrote:I went long too.

Shorts will cover before the end of the day.

I am usually bearish but I cant figure this market out at all right now. So I am betting on seasonal trends!

Also my VIX rules say to buy sell offs with the blue and red EMAs as they are:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VI ... 0599455137

We have one more week to keep the government running till next friday,
U.S. House passes one-week government funding bill, sends to Senate.( Tight stop limit on all stocks), you can't be short or long on any stocks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-hou ... 022-12-15/

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Friday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449397

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449397

jademann wrote:

merryme wrote:I went long too.

Shorts will cover before the end of the day.

I am usually bearish but I cant figure this market out at all right now. So I am betting on seasonal trends!

Also my VIX rules say to buy sell offs with the blue and red EMAs as they are:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VI ... 0599455137

Dollar, follow the dollar. small break out here, but DXY 107+ would be quite market bearish, DXY 102- market bulls want desperately to end dollar run.

BBB Roger Roger!