07/27/2012 Weekend Update

[shaca]

how is it possible that the market is going up with a negative TICKQ?
if they are going to buy more seriously since in the last 2 weeks i dont see accumulation, april top won't be this year top; if they will not, august may be a very very bad month

[KeiZai]

One more thing, seems that we are damn close to "old" (boring) setup put aside charts and indicators (ignore) and just buy the f* dip

[tkvprasad]

Hello weekend warriors,

Short term is over bought, here's something from my corner.

Thanks much. You have unique observation of the markets and know what to look for to make the next call. Your NYMO buy call on last WED night is right on !! (I didn't buy though )

I really wonder if MARKET even dip anymore from here onwards!!!!!!!!!!!

[PhilM]

Hello weekend warriors,

Short term is over bought, here's something from my corner.

Thanks much. You have unique observation of the markets and know what to look for to make the next call. Your NYMO buy call on last WED night is right on !! (I didn't buy though )

I really wonder if MARKET even dip anymore from here onwards!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't think the Fed will allow a major dip in market until after the election.

[KENA]

It is do or die for the dollar bulls

Dollar bearish scenario (wave 5 ended and we are in wave 1)

Dolci28.png

Bullish scenario

Dolci28-02.png

Joe gamma can you please explain me what is saying this chart? You look like an expert P&F charts are like sudoku to me

Dolci28-03.png

Why it is DO or DIE? Because other dollars are on critical support and will take USD with them

SGD-28.png

CAD28.png

I use Dorsey Wright P&F charts all the time befor buying and selling.I am by no means an expert..There is a lot to these charts on how they work and preform.When you get used to them they are quite usefull.Dorsey Wright has a book out on what they are and how to use them.I would recommend this book.When I see your posts on monday I will get you the correct titles etc..I'm just to lazy right now..Anyway your chart is showing a clear dn channel.If it breaks the channel up in X's you have a reverseal and 3 X's above it will take off.

[KENA]

PAGING DR.AL_D..My next picks may be swing short on " UA and MOS"..Looks like they are ready even if the mkt is going up..These stocks have their own trend and poped up fri and started to pull back..I did not buy fri. because of the week end..Who knows Europe may also bail out the USA also and this would make the mkt go to the moon on mon..Look at your charts on these two and you can see that the up trend has to change,they are just about at max..Going long now does not look that good and the strong stocks do not show that they have much push left in them.I will be looking at these two on mon for a possible trade.GT

[KeiZai]

BB you like to play financials, what´s your take on XLF? Looks like nice short setup for monday...potential double top with 4hourly inverted hammer candlestick

Thanks Kena, appreciate your reference will check/buy his book on amazon btw senor cobra can I use your link for shopping in Europe or it´s only for amazon.com? (amazon.fr or amazon.de)

[dcurban1]

I have an 89 target on the US dollar by the end of the year based on the cup and handle formation that just completed.

For the PF chart the trend line is huge resistance and the 102 may be a Fibonacci retracement based on the long-term pattern.

I see it as bullish up to 89 where we run into some solid resistance.

My long-term plan is that the dollar head to 89 based on the problems in Europe where we hit resistance as the markets fall. The dollar then begins to fall back on US problems and gold and silver take off to new highs.

[Cobra]

Retailers are very bearish, so this AAII chart should mean the market would be up huge.

AAII.gif

Cobra,

If SPY has a pull back of some type on Monday, would the 5 SMA be a reasonable expectation or would it not even be reached? Thanks for clarifying!

EFA

pullback to SMA5? Wow, that'd only prove my 3 Push Up pattern still is valid.

If indeed this is a strong up, then Monday morning dip will be bought aggressively. There's only intraday deep, no chances of red day! If the market cannot do this, then still bears have hopes.

[ClarkW]

CRB looks ready to go down but not betting on anything until confirmation this coming week.

[EFA]

Cobra,

If SPY has a pull back of some type on Monday, would the 5 SMA be a reasonable expectation or would it not even be reached? Thanks for clarifying!

EFA[/quote][/quote]

pullback to SMA5? Wow, that'd only prove my 3 Push Up pattern still is valid.

If indeed this is a strong up, then Monday morning dip will be bought aggressively. There's only intraday deep, no chances of red day! If the market cannot do this, then still bears have hopes.[/quote]

Cobra,
Thanks for your answer. Do I read correctly in your answer that you are not convinced that the pullback will get down to the 5 SMA?
Thanks for your patience and enjoy the Olympics!

[Cobra]

Cobra,
Thanks for your answer. Do I read correctly in your answer that you are not convinced that the pullback will get down to the 5 SMA?
Thanks for your patience and enjoy the Olympics!

Normally, the initial pullback shouldn't be big. We might at least consolidate and small up until 08/01

[nightlyhawk]

This outdated chart from McClellan showed that they 'again' nailed the early June bottom. Anyone has an update of this chart?

[joe-gamma]

Keizai: in the 1980s my brokerage colleagues called my Joe-Jyoodan Jai Nai Yo!
please note that, before calling me an expert!

first is the 45 degree line, always good probability to trade against that, might move 1 x above it but I think more likely lower

second, note the height of triangle from 2011-2012, the recent upmove already hit its target (7-8 boxes for that triangle)
so does not seem like good risk reward to be getting long here.
3rd, the "3 " push up" has been getting closer each upmove to the 45 degree line, will probably take it out sometime in the future...

I would expect a downmove before it breaks the line
i think medium term sell these levels, maybe get long for very long term around [ some price level determined by your charts] possibly 80+ level, could take months......
I don't follow the dollar, so knowing little, thats what I see,
thanks for all your great charts joe

[joe-gamma]

Keizai: here is a Dow pf, notice the recent consolidation and friday breakout above tripletop....my experience suggests to count the columns for the upside target, in this case 7 boxes up, I do not know how the stockcharts uses atr to calculate their targets (13200). Of course this is just for fun, since PF charts should be done by hand, from actual tick prices

I think of the consolidation and counting the columns as if the price is building inertia with each column for more thrust when it breaks out

[joe-gamma]

Keizai: here is another pattern to look for on PF charts (sorry I don't draw)
Look at Russels from Nov 11to Feb 12, minor consolidation with breakdown to 677.34
AND THEN REVERSAL UP, beyond highest consolidation levels at 766.8....this type of failure should give upside target near double the original breakdown...
I think its called low pole, or catapult, or something like that....PAGING PF EXPERTS for terminology

Possibly the dow breakout is just that setup in reverse right now

OF COURSE JUST FOR FUN, time will tell Comp, IWM and Trans are lying, lagging, or giving us a downside hint here

thanks to all you boardies for insight and charts

[TradingJackal]

Treasuries showing divergence on the weekly and took a big hit on Friday with good volume. Stochastics turning down. There is plenty of room for TLT to go down. Looks like someone found out what is going to happen at Jackson Hole. On SPY, there is a possibility of a very bullish wave three though I haven't seen such shallow wave 2s (50% retrace) when they follow a LD.

[Harapa]

Next week is full of "market moving" events. I underlined this to indicate how most people view these events or TV Guri will be predicting/explaining the market moves after and before the events (at their convenience). Here are two pieces to help you understand the context of these "market moving events"
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... nkers.html
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... e-fed.html

[Harapa]

As of close on FRI, short term momentum block (measured using hourly data) was firmly in Buy zone, however, technical picture is less to cheer about.

SPY closed near a down slopping trend line from March 2012 high;MACD and CCI are showing extreme divergences both in hourly and daily time frame. In addition risk assets(IWM/EEM) failed to make new HH and closed beneath a down slopping(IWM), or down slopping/ parallel (EEM) trend line(s). Also note EEM is hovering just above a long term trend line originating in 2008. In a healthy bull market you would like to see these lead the market and not lag.

In my view risk out ways reward at this moment as" news factor" for next week is very high. Staying on side line until things get clear.
Disclosure: Currently in trading mode and market neutral.

[KeiZai]

Thanks Joe great to have you here


AUD - short term

Triangle?