Cobra's Market View

Royal Flush wrote: I would like to congratulate in daytradingES's Thurday close Best Guess range of 1342 to 1359.25, well done and please keep up the great work

Hi RF,

Thanks, I think. With the LOL icon I'm not clear if you're making fun of me or not?

I'll agree the estimates were not right on. However, I do revise them in the AM (not always make them better you understand!).

Below were the AM estimates. The low (the first end) was exactly correct.

I am only aiming for +/- 1.5pts with the estimates so exact isn't key for me. I create a zone buyzone and sellzone with them of 3 pts width around the estimates, so the estimate +/1+1.5pts. So in this case, 1340.25 low estimate gives a low zone of 1341.75 to 1338.75. (You can see this in the "blind buy" area below).

Once in the low zone. then I used indicators for triggering the order - so the low zone is like a "splash zone" - I'm in the area of the low and now I use indicators and sometimes time targets.

If I was in the trade on the long side at 10:30CT, - which I wasn't because I decided not to trade on Friday - then the high estimate is not really meaningful. I would use the estimate range less 1.5pts to set an alert and then watch my indicators for topping action. So in this case 1340.25+17-1.5 = 1355.75 as the alert setting.

Really the FE is the only key end - as the SE (second end) is profit target "splash zone".

It has been a frustrating week with no trading due to poor sleeps.
I hope next week is better, then I could enjoy one of those beers Me-Xman is buying for "da house!"

KeiZai wrote:Just4fun

They must have a really good stuff : http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatcht ... hoobarrons

what a ride it must have been http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MDBX ... =undefined;

I am watching some ganja stocks because I think there is quite big potential

another note this looks good too : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/artic ... spray.html

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TRL.TO

Not many people on that ride...look at the volume>>>

uempel wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:The outer red band represents 3 standard deviations above/below the 50ma on SPX
SPX has spent the last 8 trading days in that red zone, including yesterday.
That is unusual, and dangerous.
SPX needs to bounce out of there… and quick…. then the correction might be analogous to May’s correction: low selling volume, no wash-out climax,
lower low bottom, then a little retest … essentially a wussie correction, just like May’s…
The more time SPX spends in the 3 std-dev red zone, the greater the risk of a crash-ette more like Aug 2011.
IMHO

1117wkndstddev.png

Great chart Al. But may I remind you that it's Saturday, we've got a day off today. I'll be in the "Totò Bar" at 6 pm, TraderGirl will be there, you coming too

I will be there as long as you don't get upset when I start drinking straight from the bottle....

So far my charts say down into tues, bounce on Weds, then possibly down again on Thurs...

Two turns this week, Monday, and Weds...

Indicators suggest a big move on Monday...

Review for week 7

Review 7 for week to 16 Nov 2012
http://screencast.com/t/ay4uLWkBy83v

IHIH
NTA

----previous-----
Review 6 for week 9 Nov 2012
http://screencast.com/t/zLTUVkAK

TraderGirl wrote:

uempel wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:The outer red band represents 3 standard deviations above/below the 50ma on SPX
SPX has spent the last 8 trading days in that red zone, including yesterday.
That is unusual, and dangerous.
SPX needs to bounce out of there… and quick…. then the correction might be analogous to May’s correction: low selling volume, no wash-out climax,
lower low bottom, then a little retest … essentially a wussie correction, just like May’s…
The more time SPX spends in the 3 std-dev red zone, the greater the risk of a crash-ette more like Aug 2011.
IMHO

The attachment 1117wkndstddev.png is no longer available

Great chart Al. But may I remind you that it's Saturday, we've got a day off today. I'll be in the "Totò Bar" at 6 pm, TraderGirl will be there, you coming too

I will be there as long as you don't get upset when I start drinking straight from the bottle....

TraderLady, I was very upset but I still love you

TraderGirl wrote:So far my charts say down into tues, bounce on Weds, then possibly down again on Thurs...

Two turns this week, Monday, and Weds...

Indicators suggest a big move on Monday...

Thanks TG.

You have a "turn on Monday" and you also have "down into Tuesday".
With Fridays' last move being up to 1360.50 I'm not sure how these combine together, unless "down into Tuesday" does not mean down from Friday's high close.

Do you mean further up on Monday and then it turns down and continues down into Tuesday?

DT

Check out the blue grid system: The break of SPX 1015 in October 2008 (which led down to 666) occured exactly in the center of the system (this boosts my confidence with the system). Last Friday SPX touched the lower band of the blue system, but has not yet touched the MA 377 at 3018.

What does all of this mean?

A) Friday's bounce has further to go, and if we check what happened in November 2007 this bounce could go way up to 1450 B) Friday's bounce is too weak and the market continues to decline. It falls down to the 1320/30 area - and bounces strongly from that level C) Friday's bounce was merely a Friday-night stand and the market will tank in November, finding first support down at 1250/1280

Weekend poll by Think B.I.G./Bespoke shows that traders are quite bullish. As contrarians we believe this is negative for the market
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... -here.html

TraderGirl wrote:

KeiZai wrote:Just4fun

They must have a really good stuff : http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatcht ... hoobarrons

what a ride it must have been http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MDBX ... =undefined;

I am watching some ganja stocks because I think there is quite big potential

another note this looks good too : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/artic ... spray.html

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TRL.TO

Not many people on that ride...look at the volume>>>

Yeah see that, this is exactly why I don´t trade OTCs

uempel wrote:Weekend poll by Think B.I.G./Bespoke shows that traders are quite bullish. As contrarians we believe this is negative for the market

The attachment 3.png is no longer available

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... -here.html

Too small sample, I prefer NDR charts for sentiment

daytradingES wrote:

Royal Flush wrote: I would like to congratulate in daytradingES's Thurday close Best Guess range of 1342 to 1359.25, well done and please keep up the great work

Hi RF,
Thanks, I think. With the LOL icon I'm not clear if you're making fun of me or not?
I'll agree the estimates were not right on. However, I do revise them in the AM (not always make them better you understand!).
Below were the AM estimates. The low (the first end) was exactly correct.
I am only aiming for +/- 1.5pts with the estimates so exact isn't key for me. I create a zone buyzone and sellzone with them of 3 pts width around the estimates, so the estimate +/1+1.5pts. So in this case, 1340.25 low estimate gives a low zone of 1341.75 to 1338.75. (You can see this in the "blind buy" area below).
Once in the low zone. then I used indicators for triggering the order - so the low zone is like a "splash zone" - I'm in the area of the low and now I use indicators and sometimes time targets.
If I was in the trade on the long side at 10:30CT, - which I wasn't because I decided not to trade on Friday - then the high estimate is not really meaningful. I would use the estimate range less 1.5pts to set an alert and then watch my indicators for topping action. So in this case 1340.25+17-1.5 = 1355.75 as the alert setting.
Really the FE is the only key end - as the SE (second end) is profit target "splash zone".
It has been a frustrating week with no trading due to poor sleeps.
I hope next week is better, then I could enjoy one of those beers Me-Xman is buying for "da house!"

Hi DTES,

The LOL icon was to experess my joy of the accuracy of your prediction as it bodes well for the future. Your target alert setting is exactly the BB 50,2 and the middle of the daily TWAPV upper bands. In live trading I held until 1 tick below the previous high which was the top of the 2nd leg up.

BTW, I am trying to figure out how to back test VIX front month and back month futures then I can try to figure contango/backwardation. The purpose of which is to optimize my swing trades by trading either a stock index ETF or a VIX ETF. For example currently it would be beneficial to be long XIV as opposed to TNA. Any assistance in this would be greatly appreciated.

KeiZai wrote:

uempel wrote:Weekend poll by Think B.I.G./Bespoke shows that traders are quite bullish. As contrarians we believe this is negative for the market

3.png

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... -here.html

Too small sample, I prefer NDR charts for sentiment

NDR1.png

NDR2.png

No, no, no, these samples have been quite good in the past. Statistically these samples are a joke, but if you go back and check the results - reliable I'm not suggesting "80%" reliable or some other figure, but these stupid little polls sure show what's going on: most people are expecting a bounce - I guess you too

From Serge @ ETF Corner
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2012/ ... ndex-.html

BullBear52x wrote:Are we there yet? are we there yet?
picture perfect is NO, my MO buy is confirmed and Bull bars are confirmed so for counter trenders this is a hammer time.

Hammers.JPG

1.JPG

2.JPG

I put some long on Friday, but there is a problem.
My MO buy did not get confirmed. The rally Friday lifted the MO enough to take the edge off (I figured that would happen).
Doesn't mean the rally won't continue.
Just means the rubber band didn't stretch to the downside far enough, long enough to give high confidence on a juicy sized bounce (as opposed to a scalp sort of thing).
A down Monday could fix this, which could bode well for trading into the holiday and maybe after.
An up Monday would have me cautiously riding and unclear how robust things get before a turn to retest the low.

uempel wrote:

KeiZai wrote:

uempel wrote:Weekend poll by Think B.I.G./Bespoke shows that traders are quite bullish. As contrarians we believe this is negative for the market

The attachment 3.png is no longer available

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... -here.html

Too small sample, I prefer NDR charts for sentiment

The attachment NDR1.png is no longer available

The attachment NDR2.png is no longer available

No, no, no, these samples have been quite good in the past. Statistically these samples are a joke, but if you go back and check the results - reliable I'm not suggesting "80%" reliable or some other figure, but these stupid little polls sure show what's going on: most people are expecting a bounce - I guess you too

Will watch it for future purposes, I see there is a new poll after every 3 or 4 days, I like it...here is chart with dates shown on their chart and with some extremes (asterisk)
Yes I was on friday and she came (but little later than I thought) my target for this bounce is around 1366 (ES), but if bulls get lucky they can print 1385 and if very very lucky then maybe 1400 is possible...If I were MM, then I would do this : 1366 then down (1325 is good support) to scare all people who bought on friday (they will likely close their longs and reverse to short to get back money they lost) and big bounce from 1325? to at least 50% back from entire decline, at 1325 people will be scared to try long side again and most likely they will be shorting all the way up/ so far this is just a pure speculation and I am more step-by-step trader than investor so I don´t really care what will happen after few weeks I have my core short positions in european stocks and I am waiting for some nice setups as well (for example siemens is one of them)

[GOLD]
4 different inflation measures:

SPX chart with forward P/E overlays
(It appears that forward P/E 13 was “brick wall” resistance over the past two years, and support between 11x and 12x)
Chart source: http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/11/stock-m ... ation.html

Al_Dente wrote:SPX chart with forward P/E overlays
(It appears that forward P/E 13 was “brick wall” resistance over the past two years, and support between 11x and 12x)
Chart source: http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/11/stock-m ... ation.html

The attachment 1115peratio2.png is no longer available

Thank u sir here is small present for u
and buddy don´t forget : http://quotez.co/wp-content/uploads/med ... enough.gif

pezhead9000 wrote:From Serge @ ETF Corner
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2012/ ... ndex-.html

I got a buy on INTC also.