09/23/2011 Intraday Watering

[ultramarine]

Al_Dente, sometimes interesting to pick up ideas. The indicator Michelle mentioned gave wrong signals in the 2000 - 2003 bear market, but since then no bad signal, managed the 2007 - 2009 decline perfectly. But I'm still a MA 377 fan. Showed whipsaws in 1992, but since then it's been a smooth ride with only 3 whipsaws.

I'm not familiar with the 377 MA. This is the 377 day moving average? Based on Gann-Fib numbers?[/quote]

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

[/quote]

Thanks. That's a beautiful chart. I guess you've tried the other Fib numbers already. Have you tried 377 with other time frames such as the 60 min?

[Richarab]

VIX near highs of the day but SPY well off the lows of the day. Hmmm....

imho greece defaults this weekend
they keep it weekend news, would kill live markets
hope it sinks in US credit downgrade style

[Al_Dente]

Sweet
But I hate it when you make us work that hard; I’m trying to trade
I use 20/39 weekly; even 13/34
No matter how you pour that milk, it smells rancid, but let’s just squeeze the carton and see.

You are toooo funny. There are posters here who say they're new to trading, so it's good to explain how you come up with whatever you're talking about sometimes.

michelle: you are kind person, and good looking too, and u r only one reading my droll, so I thank you for that
we don’t forget to be nice to newbies, cause sure enough one of em will turn out to be elephant and provide us a link that will change our “cash available” big time. me smell sharks talking, elephants lurking

[Ninja Trader]

"What is the news on YHOO? Volume and spike."

fwiw, Dan Loeb is now a monster holder of YHOO shares and is attempting to push the board out

iow, big time player involved here

[sgregs]

I covered all shorts this morning and feel holding through weekend has too much risk......funny coming from a guy that held short through Fed meeting. The last hour volatility up and down looks like position squaring by market makers, specialists and floor traders. I am expecting window dressing into end of quarter and then the real show should be coming to town. until then I expect more unfounded rumors of saving grace intervention from the CB's.

[cov_lite]

VIX near highs of the day but SPY well off the lows of the day. Hmmm....

imho greece defaults this weekend
they keep it weekend news, would kill live markets
hope it sinks in US credit downgrade style

This is just a view from the credit side of the business...but I don't think Greece will "default" per se. I think more likely scenario is that the EU will prepare banks for possible write-down of Greek debt first. Then the troika will force Greece into a distress debt exchange, which is technically not a default, but for all intents and purposes, will be viewed as a default because buyers of Greek paper will only get cents on the dollar back in the exchange.

[Claire]

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

[/quote]


Uempel: Hi - question from newbie here: It seems that the 377 ma is trending up now as much as at prior points where you suggest staying long. Am I missing something? Please clarify. TIA.

[uempel]

Al_Dente, sometimes interesting to pick up ideas. The indicator Michelle mentioned gave wrong signals in the 2000 - 2003 bear market, but since then no bad signal, managed the 2007 - 2009 decline perfectly. But I'm still a MA 377 fan. Showed whipsaws in 1992, but since then it's been a smooth ride with only 3 whipsaws.

I'm not familiar with the 377 MA. This is the 377 day moving average? Based on Gann-Fib numbers?

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

[/quote]

Thanks. That's a beautiful chart. I guess you've tried the other Fib numbers already. Have you tried 377 with other time frames such as the 60 min?[/quote]

No, I only use it for the daily. For 60min/10min/5min I apply MAs which are calculated from the number of trading hours in Wallstreet. For the 60 min its^s 32.5 (stockcharts is limited to 33), for the 10 min it's 195 and for the 5 min it's 390. Not my idea, picked it up from the trading desk at an IB.

[q2model]

Michelle, I've experimented with A/D and cumulative. The way I tested it it never gave any good signals. I prefer Bullish percentages. I found an A/D chart and put a 55 in. What do you read? I don'' pick up any viable information

NYAD cumulative isn't going to give much info, but interestingly, it has touched, and breached the 50 day for the first time since 09.

Do you mind explaining what weekly cumulative means? Rolling 5 days sum? Thanks a lot.

[Richarab]

VIX near highs of the day but SPY well off the lows of the day. Hmmm....

imho greece defaults this weekend
they keep it weekend news, would kill live markets
hope it sinks in US credit downgrade style

This is just a view from the credit side of the business...but I don't think Greece will "default" per se. I think more likely scenario is that the EU will prepare banks for possible write-down of Greek debt first. Then the troika will force Greece into a distress debt exchange, which is technically not a default, but for all intents and purposes, will be viewed as a default because buyers of Greek paper will only get cents on the dollar back in the exchange.

you made it sound half pleasant, maybe you should explain it to the people this weekend.

[simpletrade]

Very impressive! Life is simple and trading is beautiful by looking at this chart!

[wayne0708]

Shorts covering?

[ultramarine]

Al_Dente, sometimes interesting to pick up ideas. The indicator Michelle mentioned gave wrong signals in the 2000 - 2003 bear market, but since then no bad signal, managed the 2007 - 2009 decline perfectly. But I'm still a MA 377 fan. Showed whipsaws in 1992, but since then it's been a smooth ride with only 3 whipsaws.

I'm not familiar with the 377 MA. This is the 377 day moving average? Based on Gann-Fib numbers?

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

Thanks. That's a beautiful chart. I guess you've tried the other Fib numbers already. Have you tried 377 with other time frames such as the 60 min?[/quote]

No, I only use it for the daily. For 60min/10min/5min I apply MAs which are calculated from the number of trading hours in Wallstreet. For the 60 min its^s 32.5 (stockcharts is limited to 33), for the 10 min it's 195 and for the 5 min it's 390. Not my idea, picked it up from the trading desk at an IB.[/quote]

That's very cool. Do you use specific crossovers with these moving averages? For example, for the 60 min, would you use 16 with 33? Thanks for sharing.

[uempel]

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

Uempel: Hi - question from newbie here: It seems that the 377 ma is trending up now as much as at prior points where you suggest staying long. Am I missing something? Please clarify. TIA.[/quote]

No, it's nearly flat. Some other indicators are also suggesting that 1370 was the top. This does not mean that there won't be a rally that tries to break above 1200, but presumably 377 won't get breached.

[uempel]

Al_Dente, sometimes interesting to pick up ideas. The indicator Michelle mentioned gave wrong signals in the 2000 - 2003 bear market, but since then no bad signal, managed the 2007 - 2009 decline perfectly. But I'm still a MA 377 fan. Showed whipsaws in 1992, but since then it's been a smooth ride with only 3 whipsaws.

I'm not familiar with the 377 MA. This is the 377 day moving average? Based on Gann-Fib numbers?

Based of Fib numbers, I like Fibs, nothing religious, I just like things that work. Here DMA 377 and a chart I posted 10 days ago...

377.png

Thanks. That's a beautiful chart. I guess you've tried the other Fib numbers already. Have you tried 377 with other time frames such as the 60 min?

No, I only use it for the daily. For 60min/10min/5min I apply MAs which are calculated from the number of trading hours in Wallstreet. For the 60 min its^s 32.5 (stockcharts is limited to 33), for the 10 min it's 195 and for the 5 min it's 390. Not my idea, picked it up from the trading desk at an IB.[/quote]

No, I only look if price is above or below.

That's very cool. Do you use specific crossovers with these moving averages? For example, for the 60 min, would you use 16 with 33? Thanks for sharing.[/quote]

[AK84]

Cobra,
If the third push up is on the way and fails to break through 114 on SPY, does that mean bulls lose?

yes, it's losing momentum. but I sure hope it won't drop today because I really don't want to short before the weekend.

Cobra

why dont uwant to short over the weekend? think it could gap up monday ?

[stockcycle]

It's my time to add long @1133. I do'nt mind if I have to hold it over weekend.

[uempel]

Michelle, I've experimented with A/D and cumulative. The way I tested it it never gave any good signals. I prefer Bullish percentages. I found an A/D chart and put a 55 in. What do you read? I don'' pick up any viable information

NYAD cumulative isn't going to give much info, but interestingly, it has touched, and breached the 50 day for the first time since 09.

Do you mind explaining what weekly cumulative means? Rolling 5 days sum? Thanks a lot.

Go to "chartschool" at stockcharts.com and enter NYAD cumulative. As far as I remember it makes the NYAD easier to read, wipes out nervousness.

[wayne0708]

Stockcycle,

Please let me know why if you dont mind

[99er]

30-Year
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/30y_2910.html