Cobra's Market View

Final update. Touchdown.

Thanks Cobra and everyone, have a great weekend.

TA note: I saw few signs besides VIX, Dr. Al, knows what that is

Good weekend

Still expect a pullback just like after QE2.

Maybe we drift lower next week, then more upside.

QE didnt eliminate pullbacks before, wont eliminate now !

Looking like big gap up Monday.

Al_Dente wrote:

ClarkW wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING CLARKW...REPEAT these are NOT intraday

AWESOME! First, I think you showed my ADX before like this and it's different because stockcharts changed something. Is this true?
Secondly, what is the box size? And how do you enter it? I.E. Enter as ATR or Pts

Yes, stockcharts has been messing around with the old ADX...they now call it “Directional Movement w/ADX” (I use 10 setting here)
I’m using “Box: ATR 14”.....”Field: close”
Same MAs 10/25/50
let me know if it works (?)
[edit: also 200dma]

ONCE AGAIN, THANK YOU DR. AL!

Me XMan wrote:Looking like big gap up Monday.

It will gap up till December 21st 2012.

TradingJackal wrote:Final update. Touchdown.

Great job Jackal. How did you learn about Wolfe Waves? Book you could recommend? Blog?

Last move was wicked, run some stops?

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cobra and everyone, have a great weekend.
TA note: I saw few signs besides VIX, Dr. Al, knows what that is

it is what it is right bubba have nice weekend

Nrsimha wrote:

Me XMan wrote:I may take up shorts EOD for red Monday.

Cobra wrote:resistance. I have no idea where the market is going.

I told you guys 2 weeks ago --- beginning of multi-week bull.
The 12 week had JUST recently crossed the 24 week for EEM -- get into emerging markets based mutual funds and ETFs.
I hope you all got "all-in" last week when I told you all.
Don't trip over dollars to make pennies. Don't try to get in and out of this market. Don't get in front of this bull.
Stay long and relax for the next 20 weeks or so.

okay boss, thanks

ClarkW wrote:

TradingJackal wrote:Final update. Touchdown.

Great job Jackal. How did you learn about Wolfe Waves? Book you could recommend? Blog?

There is a page on investopedia. That is mostly it! Picked it up a month ago. Experimented with it right here on the board. Win some/lose some. I have been to Mr. Wolfe's website and he shares a few examples. One day when I have scrapped together $3,000 for his course, I will take it.

PS: That was 4 handles towards that goal today. I share some of what I experimented with on my blog. Mostly results of back testing and what I found.

SPX: Daily Shooting Star (Bearish) BUT corrective looking down leg unless a Leading Diagonal.

Question for the board. How does the Fed buying $40B/month of MBS help? Banks are able to sell mtgs to agency already and banks have plenty of capital to hold non-conforming loans in portfolio. I work for a bank, there is more money available than we can lend "responsibly". So how does this Fed move actually help?
thanks

Watching Goldmans

btw they nailed it again : http://www.cnbc.com/id/48896105/It_s_Co ... in_10_Days

Bman69 wrote:Question for the board. How does the Fed buying $40B/month of MBS help? Banks are able to sell mtgs to agency already and banks have plenty of capital to hold non-conforming loans in portfolio. I work for a bank, there is more money available than we can lend "responsibly". So how does this Fed move actually help?
thanks

Here is my interpretation.
1. Banks will make more money selling MBS to Fed. Banks will retain servicing of the loans but Fed will hold the paper and the risk.
2. I believe this magic is being done to 'dissolve' the bad mortgages in a Fed 'asset swap'. QE is making money out of thin air (Fed creates reserves for banks). Entry in one side of the ledger. Then mopping up the QE means pulling in 'equivalent amount' to balance the book. That would mean it never existed. Cash is printed and MBS are mopped up. I believe non-conforming loans have not been marked to market in the books. Banks will get the full face value of the MBS.
3. This should also allow unwinding of the Credit Default Swaps where a ton of banks and insurance companies have their necks stuck in.

At the end of the day, this is cleaning up the banks and insurance.

I yield to the guy who runs Pragmatic Capitalism http://pragcap.com/ blog for further reading. Above are not his thoughts. I have to read his take on this myself. Thanks for reminding me!

KeiZai wrote:Watching Goldmans

GS.png

btw they nailed it again : http://www.cnbc.com/id/48896105/It_s_Co ... in_10_Days

This gaps over the triangle next week at open. A searing rally in Financials. Surprised that GS did not purchase itself and go private while it was languishing there at the bottom .

Weekend video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0

I told you yesterday about credit agencies downgrading USA. Today Egan Jones has started... let's wait for the others.

Monday, gap down.

Bman69 wrote:Question for the board. How does the Fed buying $40B/month of MBS help? Banks are able to sell mtgs to agency already and banks have plenty of capital to hold non-conforming loans in portfolio. I work for a bank, there is more money available than we can lend "responsibly". So how does this Fed move actually help?
thanks

The Fed move is not intended to "actually help" the economy or employment.
The move is to increase the profits of big banks in two ways:
1. To reduce the losses they would have to take on bad paper if this were a free market
2. To increase their Investment banking profits through speculation and underwritings.

The Fed is a primarily owned by private banks and was established to protect their interests.
None of the money pumped into the system since 2008 was for the economy. It was for big banks.
It is using public money to pay off bad private debts of the banks.

5 trillion has been added to the US national debt since 2008(?)
"As of September 2012, debt held by the public was approximately $11.27 trillion or about 72% of GDP; intra-governmental holdings stood at $4.74 trillion, giving a combined total public debt of $16.02 trillion[4][5] [6]" -wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_national_debt


This video might help
The banking cartel, its supporter (the Fed), and money creation:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.sw ... 70450%26hl

There are approximately 154.4 million employed individuals in the US.
If you took the same 5trillion dollars and deposited it into IRA accounts for all those earning less than say 100,000 in a bank owned the US govt _ that is not a commercial bank - This would be a $50,000 IRA for each person (using 100 million employed). Individuals could borrow against their IRA for small business loans - the interest paid to the US govt - create local jobs and incomes and work towards restoring the jobs that have been exported to other countries with low wages and low environmental laws. This would stimulus the economy and help the millions without work.
\This would be public money to the public not public money to the big banks.

edit: Really the money should go all citizens - excluding those in jails, below $X annual income, ie including those who are unemployed so you would use a lower income cut-off and may only get $40,000 each? Perhaps those on welfare who are capable of working (not mentally challenged and ill or disabled) but choose not to work might have a drawback if after 5 years they were still on benefits...

In any case ...
we don't decide Banster BEN decides fro his Banster buddies.