01/25/2012 Intraday Watering

[SWalsh]

Classic TA with a solid hit of a T and a MAJOR on on Monday. Uh, it didn't work. Wasn't easy.

Large HFT hits between 9:45 and 10:05. When they hit and don't go down, one has to question if they will see it continue. IMO, this pattern was broken. Did they know what was going to be released? Sure, PIMCO knows 2-3 weeks after the meeting and Bill Gross was found to be acting as if he had just heard while a guest for the release on CNBC:

[SWalsh]

and one way we can begin to keep this nation together is to avoid using statements like this one: "while we have a president who divides it". remember that in a democracy there is a 0.5 probability that you'll offend half the membership of this board with that statement and that is not going to help keeping us together, is it?

In 2008 some voted to prove they are not a racist. In 2012 they have the opportunity to vote that they are not fooled by his actions and lies. This guy is a wrecking balls to the Constitution and the rule of law. Anyone offended by that remark I made should question why and try to defend his positions.

And anyone offended by what I stated should be embarrassed. This mkt has become more difficult to trade in a direct proportion to his criminal enterprise. Some may be blind to it, I am not. Sorry. In fact, anyone claiming this mkt is as easy, or easier to trade, if full of it. The HFTs see every order on the books. That used to be, although never used under RICO laws, a felony. It's why systems and methods used have turned to shit - the dealer sees your cards!

P.S. We are not a "democracy" and we surely are no longer a representative republic as laws apply to others and not this administration, or banks that support them.

[57chevy]

Sooo much negative divergences.....


If SPY wont go down....TA is worthless...

There has been an increasingly high rate of negative divergence being invalidated despite patterns that would point towards declines.

May I acquaint you with 2009 where not one major divergence worked?

A friend of mine spent time and analyzed classic TA signals in 2009. The conclusion he came to what that they either generated themselves and were then taken advantage of when short, or they were helped to be generated to get shorts in to then run their stops. The point he made to me was that with so many PhD programmers on Wall Street, he believed they could work the market into positions that would be acted upon to then blow those positions out. My understanding is that a DeMark Daily Signal was triggered last night. I don't follow that methodology but it developing a good track record, as per someone using it, on most timeframes to get battered.


U.S. Attorney’s Office December 10, 2010

"PREET BHARARA, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that SERGEY ALEYNIKOV was found guilty today by a jury in Manhattan federal court of one count of theft of trade secrets and one count of transportation of stolen property in interstate and foreign commerce, in connection with the theft of proprietary computer code concerning a high-frequency trading platform from his former employer, Goldman Sachs. U.S. District Judge DENISE L. COTE presided over the two-week trial".


In that case it was stated that "in the wrong hands" the software could be used to manipulate the markets.

Gotta agree that the market's been harder to trade. which is certainly evidenced by the shops that have closed their doors. For good or bad I'm a guy who has bought into the idea that the market moves in Elliott Wave patterns (not that this makes it a lot easier to predict). Over the past 2+ years I've noted a significant increase in natural wave patterns that have simply been broken -- to the upside.

[trendfollower]

Interesting video: "Oil Trade, Stocks About to Dip"

http://goo.gl/eaNQu

[bushwaffle]

Interesting video: "Oil Trade, Stocks About to Dip"

http://goo.gl/eaNQu

Nice vid, hope its on target

[mozart]

Silver:

[SWalsh]

Interesting 1/2 page below on what was warned of in "The Quiet Coup"..An "Illegal Cartel".

The prediction in "The Quiet Coup" this would happen on the route Obama was on - May 2009
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... coup/7364/

An article urging this be broken up. Referring to the first article it seems to be too late. It appears to be QE forever and just BTFD. Is it really time to close ones eyes, forget those time tested methods you worked so hard to implement, and just BTFD?
http://tinyurl.com/78oscqb

"The big Wall Street banks have achieved so much control over their industry that they amount to an illegal cartel, says William Cohan, a former banker and the author of many books and articles about Wall Street, including "Money And Power," a book about Goldman Sachs.

"The pricing power and profits that the big banks have is similar to that of Standard Oil, Cohan argues, referring to the gigantic oil monopoly owned by John Rockefeller that was broken up a century ago.

"Cohan observes that prices of transactions like IPOs and M&A deals are basically fixed across the industry and produce humongous profits. And smaller "boutique" firms are not able to compete on price because they lack the distribution and influence of the biggest banks.

"Cohan believes that the government should intervene, breaking the cartel's stranglehold. He notes, however, that a prior case brought against the industry 60 years ago failed. And even if the government were to successfully intervene, the specific remedy is not clear."

I have a wide range of trading friends from trading desks in banks (not HFTs), boutique shops, and individuals who have been successful year after year for 10-20 years. All are having great difficulty with stock and related ETF trading.