09/18/2013 Live Update

[simpletrader]

wait to see the roller coast after Fed minute. so bored for the last couple of days. No trade signals at all.

[Heck]

Looking at TNX (and I've been watching it like a hawk) I see a broken rising wedge and a potential kiss goodbye.. I was long TLT at EOD Monday and holding. There is the potential to see higher highs ahead but with overhead resistance on SPX (which is forming it's own rising wedge) coupled with seasonality, debt ceiling talks, risks in middle east, and tapering... Also please note that Gold Bugs HUI price is resting on a long-term support trend line. Gold futures has the potential of forming a large inverse H/S as I've pointed out. We'll need to see some strength but there is still room for that to play out. Semis (SOX) is very near the top of a large multi-year falling trendline and SPX is of course near its own... if there is more up it has a lot of supply to deal with. Perhaps we will start to see normal market correlations and maybe we are in the ebb tide right now. The influence of the Fed may be fading...

Taper today may be a non-event as EQ market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry with $TNX

What are you talking about?

The spike in $TNX is worry?

No, it's the oposite, we had spikes in yield before each major top or crrection.

Actually, the rising yield will force Fed to tighten a lot today as the mortgage applications are dropping dead right now and they know very well that QE is causing the yield to rise.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-cont ... 112013.jpg

$Gold met its IT target of 1300, $SPX is targeting 1970 IT, $TNX is targeting 5.45% IT.

Overbought and may retrace ST

Undervalued EQ opening long Calls/Puts were as high as 215% this AM, suggesting another market spurt soon

[fehro]

VIX 15m, with my bear googles on.. possible invs H&S.. yeah I know not perfect... but there it is

[Al_Dente]

squeeze on XIV

[uempel]

two for one

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Miyagi, those moves look minuscule, I'd love to see some wild move either to the downside (see chart) or to the upside (nice target at 1728)

[Denali92]

Just some notes to pass the time - surprisingly close to how we trade in June 2013....

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

-D

[Cobra]

rebounding from Fib 61.8% mm target. good, but I'd like to see a higher low first.

[uempel]

wait to see the roller coast after Fed minute. so bored for the last couple of days. No trade signals at all.

Yes, waiting for some

[Cobra]

must exceed the mini rebound target then higher low then it'd be a perfect dip to buy.

[MrMiyagi]

Miyagi, those moves look minuscule, I'd love to see some wild move either to the downside (see chart) or to the upside (nice target at 1728)

We'll see which way it goes at 14:05 EST (after the dust settles a bit).

[Cobra]

mini rebound target met. now please give us a higher low.

[Al_Dente]

Crude and copper are at the top of my (narrow) intraday list
JJC copper miners = island reversal
UCO was on a squeeze, but relaxing now

[fehro]

Miyagi, those moves look minuscule, I'd love to see some wild move either to the downside (see chart) or to the upside (nice target at 1728)

We'll see which way it goes at 14:05 EST (after the dust settles a bit).

Keep in mind there's a press conference today after the minutes are released... so could be some wild swings in between.... maybe 15:00?
Just realized the press conference starts at 14:30ET http://mam.econoday.com/

[jposner]

Miyagi, those moves look minuscule, I'd love to see some wild move either to the downside (see chart) or to the upside (nice target at 1728)

We'll see which way it goes at 14:05 EST (after the dust settles a bit).

Keep in mind there's a press conference today after the minutes are released... so could be some wild swings in between.... maybe 14:30?

There are no minutes being released today. It's just a Fed statement at 2, followed by a press conference at 2:30.

The minutes are usually released about 3 weeks after the relevant Fed meeting. For details, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp ... endars.htm

[tonghu]

wow, so few posts these days, even today?

[Mr. BachNut]

While we wait for the show to begin, I am cooking up some popcorn (seriously) and perusing some longer term charts.
I just noticed that if the Dow fails to make a new high, a very nice Head and Shoulders may be in the forming.
This could be interesting because the target would be a serious breach of the 200 day MA.
It's just a twinkle in a bear's eye for now, but let's see what happens.

[Al_Dente]

GDX 5min

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. may pause at the red channel line.. if it's legit.

[seemore]

someone just bought gold futures up 8 points. made GDX swing +$.24. Was it a gold bottom, or an inkling as to Fed move at 2, or a fake?

[fehro]

Big spike in GDX/NUGT interday...