Cobra's Market View

Cobra, just registered, have been watching for a while, so thanks to you and all here for unbiased WYSIWYG views and information.

I trade using Saxobank in Europe - and while I don't trade the French CAC it has just shown a 140 point collapse in 2 minutes. Thats a 3.5% drop (flash crash) Can anyone verify?

People mocked my GOOG Jan 2013 put leaps (which actually aren't budging much today), but this still looks bearish long-term to me. We'll see if the wedge breaks, and if so, understand that the target is $150 and that implies the US stock market is about to head into a bear market, because there's no way it trades that low without a bear market.

also another negative is FCX , which is usually a great tell for the market. another leader, GS is also down. hmmmm.... if we hit /es 1317.50 i will short.

Cobra wrote:nothing new, I just still couldn't believe that we're going up really huge here with TLT, AUDJPY and NQ as headwind.

maybe news driven? today most data are good which in general may favor big stocks. goog er bad caused worries in nq.
ecri bad. we r going lower

ES and ZB
Possible H&S on ES and IH&S on the Long Bond.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/es-zb_15.html
The bond desk may skip The Hamptons and settle for that strip joint instead.

cletus wrote:People mocked my GOOG Jan 2013 put leaps (which actually aren't budging much today), but this still looks bearish long-term to me. We'll see if the wedge breaks, and if so, understand that the target is $150 and that implies the US stock market is about to head into a bear market, because there's no way it trades that low without a bear market.

I don't think anyone mocked at you, the thing is you were saying you had a long term bearish view based on FA and didn't care about ER next day, then why took the risk just before ER then? It's not about your perspective but your logic. It doesn't support your trade even GOOG's price movement favors you today based on your logic.

For FA, I personally don't have any opinion on GOOG, just felt the cross comparison you gave is not strong enough.

bbc wrote:

cletus wrote:People mocked my GOOG Jan 2013 put leaps (which actually aren't budging much today), but this still looks bearish long-term to me. We'll see if the wedge breaks, and if so, understand that the target is $150 and that implies the US stock market is about to head into a bear market, because there's no way it trades that low without a bear market.

I don't think anyone mocked at you, the thing is you were saying you had a long term bearish view based on FA and didn't care about ER next day, then why took the risk just before ER then? It's not about your perspective but your logic. It doesn't support your trade even GOOG's price movement favors you today based on your logic.

For FA, I personally don't have any opinion on GOOG, just felt the cross comparison you gave is not strong enough.

If I'm taking a long-term position I believe in, it doesn't matter what news is happening with the stock short term, and there's virtually no risk on a 2013 LEAP option around earnings. The options don't move that much that far out.

Lots of static on the SPY 1 min,lots of time means mkt going back up.Wait and see.

cletus wrote:

bbc wrote:

cletus wrote:People mocked my GOOG Jan 2013 put leaps (which actually aren't budging much today), but this still looks bearish long-term to me. We'll see if the wedge breaks, and if so, understand that the target is $150 and that implies the US stock market is about to head into a bear market, because there's no way it trades that low without a bear market.

I don't think anyone mocked at you, the thing is you were saying you had a long term bearish view based on FA and didn't care about ER next day, then why took the risk just before ER then? It's not about your perspective but your logic. It doesn't support your trade even GOOG's price movement favors you today based on your logic.

For FA, I personally don't have any opinion on GOOG, just felt the cross comparison you gave is not strong enough.

If I'm taking a long-term position I believe in, it doesn't matter what news is happening with the stock short term, and there's virtually no risk on a 2013 LEAP option around earnings. The options don't move that much that far out.

Totally understand what you said, but you are simply wrong.

take LEAP 330C 2013 as example, see if market moves against you with this magnitude. This is the least possible aggressive position.
LEAP yesterday is about 290.00 per call, today? 255 per call. You think -15% one day is not risk?

you can still argue that -15% will be filled sooner or later in two years. But you can get 15% (more or less) discount
on your average cost if you enter after ER.

cobra is taking nap again?
yr reading pls. any trade to take now?

JJS612 wrote:Cobra, just registered, have been watching for a while, so thanks to you and all here for unbiased WYSIWYG views and information.

I trade using Saxobank in Europe - and while I don't trade the French CAC it has just shown a 140 point collapse in 2 minutes. Thats a 3.5% drop (flash crash) Can anyone verify?

Hi,
Can't confirm that, I see it down .1%. Also, no mention of it on CNBC or Bloomberg TV here in the US.

PRI wrote:

JJS612 wrote:Cobra, just registered, have been watching for a while, so thanks to you and all here for unbiased WYSIWYG views and information.

I trade using Saxobank in Europe - and while I don't trade the French CAC it has just shown a 140 point collapse in 2 minutes. Thats a 3.5% drop (flash crash) Can anyone verify?

Hi,
Can't confirm that, I see it down .1%. Also, no mention of it on CNBC or Bloomberg TV here in the US.

Thanks, must be a system glitch. Have logged out, and back in but still registered the same - shame I wasn't short that.

JJS612--

Greek bonds in free fall; no ECB intervention.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek- ... now-doomed

Nuetral now, trade above gap resistance no but or is....BUY.

I still short SSO.

Bearish it seems.

bbc wrote:Totally understand what you said, but you are simply wrong.

take LEAP 330C 2013 as example, see if market moves against you with this magnitude. This is the least possible aggressive position.
LEAP yesterday is about 290.00 per call, today? 255 per call. You think -15% one day is not risk?

you can still argue that -15% will be filled sooner or later in two years. But you can get 15% (more or less) discount
on your average cost if you enter after ER.

Incorrect. My puts are up today, only 3% but up, so buying ahead of earnings yielded a profit. I did not buy the 330s, I bough the 220s. They aren't shown on Yahoo Finance. Bottom line, buying ahead of earnings of a LEAP doesn't really matter. It's a long-term position, short term price movement means nothing.

Stick the fork in this pig.

99er wrote:JJS612--

Greek bonds in free fall; no ECB intervention.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek- ... now-doomed

nothing new, still fighting on resistance. the last 2 doji bars don't feel good, so should be some pullback. today's oe day, so don't take things seriously.

Need to be a big fork, and beware the reactive - it might just be a big inflated balloon.

Check out the volume on UDN.

Someone thinks the dollar is done going down.