07/31/2014 Live Update

[Heck]

Almost six puts for every call on Index opening long undervalued options suggests moar down she wrote

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

'
Equity opening long undervalued at 144%
XOM calls at 12.65% implied volatility vs 15.47 VIX
and -1411 TICKQ
Suggest we may see a rebound

[gappy]

MARKET SNAPSHOT: U.S. Stocks Slide On Worries About Fed Rate Policy

Capture.PNG

[Al_Dente]

Covering SCALP short here
Scalp only

[L_T]

In retrospect, this was a perfect storm.
Institutions started to pull money in July, wars raging in Europe and middle east, Argentinian default, and finely some are front running the poor August seasonality. My guess is this mini correction will eventually be bought and this was not THE TOP yet.

Sounds like you've created a story or pattern where no one can be sure of either (hindsight bias). Sorry I'm reading stuff lately about biases and such so I notice it......

[Royal Flush]

10:55 ES bar high volume could be exhaustion.

[jack black]

-1288 TICK Whoa! You might see that at the open but not usually this time of day. Sellers are committed.

something I read a couple days ago... meant to post it.. but didn't get around to it..
“The Tick readings I am seeing (-1100 and -1200) is like an accelerator on the floor that is pressed for an indefinite amount of time,” Cook says. “Eventually the motor will run out of gas. Now, anything that comes out of left field will create a strain on the market.” Since the CCT is a leading indicator, prices have to catch up with the negative Tick readings.

“Think of a dam that has small cracks that are imperceptible to the eye,” he says. “Finally, the dam gives way. Eventually, prices will go south, and the Tick numbers will be horrific.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock- ... genumber=1

Good info, but I searched for the “Cook Cumulative Tick,” and didn't find any good examples.

[Daniel]

IYT touches its 50day MA for the first time in many many weeks.

[L_T]

I found this chart here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1130973/tenpp/1

Does this hold any water? just curious.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[jack black]

In retrospect, this was a perfect storm.
Institutions started to pull money in July, wars raging in Europe and middle east, Argentinian default, and finely some are front running the poor August seasonality. My guess is this mini correction will eventually be bought and this was not THE TOP yet.

Sounds like you've created a story or pattern where no one can be sure of either (hindsight bias). Sorry I'm reading stuff lately about biases and such so I notice it......

This why I put "IN RESTROSPECT" part. I forgot to mention the tapering. But, the info was available to anyone and actionable, thus, I kept short positions recently. If you don't like my posts, put me on ignore list.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:40 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/07 ... ay-update/

[Out of Bounds]

I didn't see any bias at all. Looked like simple observation of events and a guess as to the outcome.

My experience is that pop-psychology is more pop and less psychology.

[Al_Dente]

I found this chart here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1130973/tenpp/1
Does this hold any water? just curious.

It's just the default RSI (14) on $NASI
it could bottom anywhere

[Cobra]

consolidation here favors bears. bulls need to break the range on the upside to avoid consolidation.

[L_T]

In retrospect, this was a perfect storm.
Institutions started to pull money in July, wars raging in Europe and middle east, Argentinian default, and finely some are front running the poor August seasonality. My guess is this mini correction will eventually be bought and this was not THE TOP yet.

Sounds like you've created a story or pattern where no one can be sure of either (hindsight bias). Sorry I'm reading stuff lately about biases and such so I notice it......

This why I put "IN RESTROSPECT" part. I forgot to mention the tapering. But, the info was available to anyone and actionable, thus, I kept short positions recently. If you don't like my posts, put me on ignore list.

No need to be defensive, I point it out for everyone's benefit that they don't create causality where there isn't any. The market went down because that's what it does sometimes.

I'm making more of an academic statement than anything else. I'm also not starting a war of words, just that I noticed something that I may not have in the past. Increasing my powers of perception!

[MrMiyagi]

iwm

qqq

[Out of Bounds]

S&P A/D is at -458 [LOD]

[jack black]

No need to be defensive, I point it out for everyone's benefit that they don't create causality where there isn't any. The market went down because that's what it does sometimes.

Stock market crashes are like avalanches. There have to be underlying causes to produce stress in the markets in addition to be just overbought and overextended. I listed the causes in my post above. Then you have to have some spark to trigger the initial wave (some kind of shock/unexpected event). Then the selling if fueled by positive feedback. We have that now. Notice the breakdown of bearish flag that just happened.

[user13]

We are at the bottom of the range now on the daily

[jack black]

Here is directly from Mark Cook, interesting reading, he doesn't sugar coat for sure: http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=667