Cobra's Market View

Update on XLE energy-stocks participation
Percent of stocks above 20ma (as of yesterday’s close) was 0%.
Zero XLE stocks were above their 20ma yesterday
It doesn’t get any lower than that. Today’s dead-cat bounce will lift it a little, not enough yet

Lower panel: depending on how we close today, this could be the first red Elder bar on SPY since the October low, and the first breach of 20ma

EOD end-of-day yesterday
Participation in other indices
% of stocks above 20ma (short term) rolled over
% above 50ma (mid term) and bullish percents take a longer time to roll

[quote="DellGriffith"]The way I would read the daily action is that today is a clear break of the current uptrend line. We must move back above the uptrend line by the close tomorrow. If not, the odds are extremely good that this is the start of a correction.

I don't see a "current uptrend line". Where are you drawing it?

Another fresh session high on QQQ, testing in to yesterday's low

If you connect this Dec-Jan you can see that crude often bottoms...well, right about now, seasonally speaking. So, anyone with a tough gut might consider a long energy play whether it's buying energy stocks or crude itself.

SPX

Well, what do you know, I actually got something kinda right....

MrMiyagi wrote:(YESTERDAY) Anyone betting SPX to 2030 this week?

That is where the 20 Bollinger is at.

Good morning. I covered my shorts at the open and am not trading today. Gusts in town so not much time.

so bears only lasted for one single day, impressive

Anyone who got caught short yesterday on QQQ is now losing money again. It's a really tough time to be a bear.

TF futures (Small Caps) also having a positive day, safely above yesterdays cash market close now. I was going to say what about the ES but I see it is taking off, finally. Is this a dip buying flurry?

Some news out of ECB about a stimulus plan, reason for thine marketeth poppeth.

Does it mean Santa comes early this year?

Cobra:If spy still have room on downside, do you think enter spy put at today' high ok?

SPX could say still wedging bear flag… need to see what happens after lunch.. renewed selling? VIX holding up…atm

INDEX dailies.. RUT testing 20d ..leading and green

Cletus,

I would be very careful about traditional seasonality with OPEC trying to destroy the shale business. Gary Shilling warned years and years ago that anytime a government uses commodity extraction to fund itself you get less than rational behavior when prices drop. For example the Kurds just cut a deal to pump oil threw Turkey. No way they are going to cut back while the war rages.

jway888 wrote:so bears only lasted for one single day, impressive

If I had to guess, I'd say this is the start of a correction and the market will turn around and drop more instead of regaining the uptrend line.

Of course, I don't have to guess I can just wait for confirmation and then act.

100% mm fulfilled. forget my guess, this rebound may have legs if not the low was in.

IWM has closed the gap down (already)