Cobra's Market View

test the morning low and rebound, critical time, but I till think reversal is possible today. let's see.

Wednesday offered one of the best trades imaginable, to long the USD. Why? USD-sentiment was zero, all the pundits were talking the dollar down, virtually everybody felt safe with a short. Those are set ups which offer the best results . Cobra wrote about it last night in his blog, I mentioned it yesterday in this forum. Here today's USD/CHF chart:

Update of previous chart.

Keep an eye on the VIX. It will determine how far any rally can go.

well i heard some rumor in person. a firm i am familiar with may get margin call on cl.
any suggestion how to benefit from it?

I sold my SPY short finally for a small profit. Now SPY long??????Wait and see

ES
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/es_4302.html

uempel: "Wednesday offered one of the best trades imaginable, to long the USD."

Congratulations!

Caution: DX showing a topping candle now for a correction.

Did a buy program just kick in for equities?

$TRAN +1.5% right now....leading again?

well, indeed a sharp reversal. I'm looking forward to a rebound of a day or two at least.

DX
IH&S target of 75.571.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dx_9051.html

the next resistance.

Cobra wrote:well, indeed a sharp reversal. I'm looking forward to a rebound of a day or two at least.

holy cow. I mean, cobra niu!

SPX
Back test.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/spx_8068.html
Time to write off the IH&S?

99er wrote:uempel: "Wednesday offered one of the best trades imaginable, to long the USD."

Congratulations!

Caution: DX showing a topping candle now for a correction.

Tks, I didn't want to brag. What I meant to say is that it can be better to wait for a good trade than to trade minor ups and downs of ES. And trading forex with a leverage of 1/100 has a very attractive risk/reward.

As to your caution due to USD showing a topping candle: this countermove of the USD won't be huge, but it has more juice to go. Bear in mind how long USD has been going in one direction - down. Today was up 1.5%, but I guess that's only about 1/3 of the USD/CHF move. Presume the USD/basket or USD/EUR will follow suit.

uempel:

I'm bullish on the Dollar.

DXY: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dxy_05.html

es is in my comfortable zone. looking to short the biatch.

Mkt is bullish right now but I think I will wait for an hour and then see.

99er wrote:uempel:

I'm bullish on the Dollar.

DXY: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dxy_05.html

Yeah, might go to 77. And by the way, since we started this USD conversation it has been going up 0.3%...

more rebound, the pullback shall fail. we'll see.